Thor Nystrom’s Best College Football Week 10 Bets (2022)

Here’s a look at College Football Week 10 spreads and totals along with my projections. Below you can find my best bets of the week.

Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 10 College Football Power Rankings >>

In the box below are my adjusted spreads for this weekend's games. ATL stands for "Adjusted Thor Line," and ATT stands for "Adjusted Thor Total." Spreads are from the home team’s perspective, i.e., a negative number indicates the home team is favored. In the value column, a negative number indicates points of value on the spread for the home team, while a positive number indicates points value on the away team. Similarly, in the totals value column, a negative number indicates points of line value on the over, while a positive number indicates points of line value on the under.

2022: 52-44-2 ATS (54.2%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

Here’s a look at College Football Week 10 spreads and totals along with my projections. Below you can find my best bets of the week.

Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 10 College Football Power Rankings >>

2022: 52-44-2 ATS (54.2%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

Thor Nystrom's Best College Football Week 10 Bets (2022)

Away	Home	ATL	Spread	Value	ATT	Total	Value	Day	CST
Appalachian St.	Coastal Carolina	4.8	3	1.8	68.5	63.5	5	Thursday	6:00 PM
UTEP	Rice	-6.7	-3.5	-3.2	54.5	49	5.5	Thursday	6:30 PM
Massachusetts	Connecticut	-14.7	-15.5	0.8	43.5	40	3.5	Friday	6:00 PM
Duke	Boston College	6.1	9.5	-3.4	59.0	47.5	11.5	Friday	6:00 PM
Oregon St.	Washington	-3.0	-4.5	1.5	64.0	55	9	Friday	9:30 PM
Air Force	Army	7.6	7	0.6	39.0	40.5	-1.5	Saturday	10:30 AM
North Carolina	Virginia	5.8	7.5	-1.7	66.0	58.5	7.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Kentucky	Missouri	1.5	1	0.5	44.5	42.5	2	Saturday	11:00 AM
Ohio St.	Northwestern	38.6	38.5	0.1	58.5	58	0.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Texas Tech	TCU	-10.3	-9.5	-0.8	78.0	69.5	8.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Minnesota	Nebraska	13.3	16	-2.7	52.0	46.5	5.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Iowa	Purdue	-0.9	-4.5	3.6	49.5	41.5	8	Saturday	11:00 AM
Tulane	Tulsa	3.8	7.5	-3.7	53.0	58	-5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Florida	Texas A&M	-5.0	-3.5	-1.5	54.5	56	-1.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Western Kentucky	Charlotte	11.7	16	-4.3	87.0	72	15	Saturday	11:00 AM
Maryland	Wisconsin	-2.5	-5	2.5	61.0	50.5	10.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech	-6.9	-3	-3.9	37.5	40.5	-3	Saturday	11:30 AM
South Florida	Temple	-2.4	3.5	-5.9	50.5	51	-0.5	Saturday	1:00 PM
Marshall	Old Dominion	9.2	2.5	6.7	54.5	46	8.5	Saturday	1:00 PM
Georgia St.	Southern Miss	-6.4	-2	-4.4	46.5	48.5	-2	Saturday	2:00 PM
Middle Tennessee	Louisiana Tech	3.6	2.5	1.1	68.5	63.5	5	Saturday	2:00 PM
Baylor	Oklahoma	-2.5	-3.5	1.0	58.0	61.5	-3.5	Saturday	2:00 PM
Oregon	Colorado	30.6	31.5	-1.0	59.0	61.5	-2.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Oklahoma St.	Kansas	-1.2	1	-2.2	68.0	64.5	3.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Tennessee	Georgia	-7.0	-8	1.0	73.5	66	7.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
New Mexico	Utah St.	-4.8	-16	11.2	43.0	43.5	-0.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
UTSA	UAB	-6.5	1	-7.5	56.0	51.5	4.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Washington St.	Stanford	4.2	5	-0.8	46.5	50.5	-4	Saturday	2:30 PM
West Virginia	Iowa St.	-7.4	-7	-0.4	52.0	50.5	1.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Syracuse	Pittsburgh	1.1	-3.5	4.6	55.5	48	7.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Penn St.	Indiana	17.9	14	3.9	47.0	50.5	-3.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Michigan St.	Illinois	-8.9	-16.5	7.6	44.5	42	2.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
UCF	Memphis	4.7	3.5	1.2	63.0	59.5	3.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Liberty	Arkansas	-14.3	-13.5	-0.8	60.5	63	-2.5	Saturday	3:00 PM
South Alabama	Georgia Southern	1.4	3.5	-2.1	55.5	60.5	-5	Saturday	3:00 PM
Florida International	North Texas	-19.2	-20.5	1.3	54.5	62	-7.5	Saturday	3:00 PM
Troy	Louisiana	0.8	5.5	-4.7	38.0	43	-5	Saturday	4:00 PM
Texas St.	Louisiana-Monroe	0.3	-1	1.3	51.5	52	-0.5	Saturday	4:00 PM
Alabama	LSU	11.7	13.5	-1.8	56.5	58	-1.5	Saturday	6:00 PM
UNLV	San Diego St.	-6.4	-6.5	0.1	46.5	47.5	-1	Saturday	6:00 PM
Houston	SMU	-3.2	-3	-0.2	67.5	67	0.5	Saturday	6:00 PM
Brigham Young	Boise St.	-7.4	-7.5	0.1	54.5	55.5	-1	Saturday	6:00 PM
Texas	Kansas St.	2.3	2.5	-0.2	52.5	54.5	-2	Saturday	6:00 PM
Clemson	Notre Dame	0.1	3.5	-3.4	50.5	44.5	6	Saturday	6:30 PM
Auburn	Mississippi St.	-9.3	-13	3.7	58.0	51.5	6.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Michigan	Rutgers	25.4	26	-0.6	53.0	45	8	Saturday	6:30 PM
Navy	Cincinnati	-19.1	-19	-0.1	49.5	47	2.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
South Carolina	Vanderbilt	12.6	7	5.6	58.5	48.5	10	Saturday	6:30 PM
Arizona	Utah	-22.9	-17.5	-5.4	68.5	67.5	1	Saturday	6:30 PM
James Madison	Louisville	-4.2	-7.5	3.3	57.0	52.5	4.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Florida St.	Miami (FL)	7.0	7.5	-0.5	57.0	53	4	Saturday	6:30 PM
Wake Forest	North Carolina St.	4.7	4.5	0.2	67.0	54	13	Saturday	7:00 PM
UCLA	Arizona St.	9.8	10.5	-0.7	66.5	66	0.5	Saturday	8:30 PM
Colorado St.	San Jose St.	-22.4	-24.5	2.1	41.0	45	-4	Saturday	9:30 PM
Hawai’i	Fresno St.	-25.4	-27.5	2.1	51.0	62	-11	Saturday	9:30 PM
California	USC	-19.7	-21	1.3	53.0	60.5	-7.5	Saturday	9:30 PM

Appalachian State (-3) at Coastal Carolina (Thursday)
ATL: Appy -4.8

Appalachian State has the No. 1 offense in the nation at avoiding havoc. That's important here because it means Coastal Carolina has no chance of putting heat on ASU QB Chase Brice.

Which means Brice is going to have all day to pick apart Coastal's rancid secondary (No. 114 in passing success rate). Appy State is going to drag that awful CC secondary into deep waters early and often.

On the other side, Appy State's strong pass defense has a much better chance of slowing down star Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall.

The pick: Appy St -3

Oregon State (+4.5) at Washington (Friday)
ATL: UW -3.0

Fascinating matchup of contrasting styles.

Washington is one of the most pass-happy teams in the nation. Oregon State has a run-first ethos in an offense that runs at one of the slowest tempos in the nation.

Washington's pass defense stinks. Oregon State's run defense stinks. Neither offense would prefer to move the ball that way.

OSU's pass defense, on the other hand, is really, really good - No. 31 in success rate, No. 19 explosion. I think that pass defense could give Washington fits. The Beavs' defensive backs rank No. 4 in the nation in havoc.

Meanwhile, Oregon State's rushing offense is going to be able to move the ball on a Washington run defense that ranks No. 61 success rate. And UW's leaky secondary will be susceptible to Oregon State's nasty play-action game.

The pick: Oregon State +4.5

New Mexico (+16) at Utah State
ATL: USU -4.7

My system so very rarely shows this much value on one side. It appears that the market is beyond all-in on Utah State because USU HC Blake Anderson indicated earlier this week that QB2 Cooper Legas was "on track" to track for this game barring a "setback."

That potentially means Utah State doesn’t have to start its QB4 again. That's the good news. The bad is that Legas doesn't stretch the field, has averaged around 150 passing YPG in the games he's started, and owns a 5/4 TD/INT ratio.

New Mexico's pass defense is the strength of their team, and Utah State's passing attack has been bad all season regardless of who is behind center.

Meanwhile, the clear weakness of USU's defense is against the run. That's all New Mexico can do on that side of the ball. The Lobos' zone-option offense merely needs to slowly advance the ball up the field to keep that clock running and the defense rested.

One last thing: USU HC Blake Anderson got his big break into the FBS coaching ranks when he was hired as New Mexico RB coach in 1999. Anderson is not shy about his admiration for the New Mexico program, nor former HC Rocky Long, the man who gave him his shot.

"I owe a tremendous amount of credit for my career to Rocky Long and his faith and what he saw in me as a young coach," Anderson said. "I've referred to him as my football dad, he doesn't necessarily like that as much as I do. But I really do believe that without his trust and giving me an opportunity, not sure I'd be the head coach sitting in front of you today."

In a game with a spread this high, it's nice to know the favored coach not doesn't have an incentive to run the score up.

The pick: New Mexico +16

Virginia (+7.5) vs. North Carolina
ATL: UNC -5.8

Most look at this game and see a good team playing a bad team - they see a sizeable qualitative gap that'll muddy their ability to accurately handicap the on-field matchup. Before we get into that, let’s dispel the false narrative.

While UNC is a full four games better than Virginia in the standings (7-1 against 3-5), the Tar Heels have only 1.4 more second-order wins than Virginia. In short: Virginia is better than their record, and UNC is worse than theirs.

Virginia's offensive line is the thing that has defanged QB Brennan Armstrong and his superb receiving corps. That's not going to come into play in this game. UNC's feeble defensive front doesn't generate pressure.

That should allow Armstrong to have one of his best games of the season.

On the other side, Virginia's feisty pass defense has a shot to slow UNC's high-flying pass offense. The Cavaliers' defense has admirably played tough all year even when put into bad circumstances by the offense.

The pick: Virginia +7.5

Marshall (-2.5) at Old Dominion
ATL: Marshall -9.2

Old Dominion started 2-2 with a win over Virginia Tech - and a near-miss two-point loss to Virginia.

But in Game 5, stud ODU TE Zack Kuntz, a Penn State transfer and prime NFL prospect, was knocked out (the team finally confirmed earlier this week that Kuntz's injury is season-ending).

Since that time, ODU is 1-3, including consecutive losses to Georgia Southern and Georgia State. Kuntz's injury has hurt both ODU's running and passing games. That feels like a problem with Marshall's elite G5 defense coming to town. The Herd boast the No. 17 SP+ defense.

The Herd have gone 2-4 since the upset win over Notre Dame, seemingly falling off a cliff. But in those four losses, Marshall finished with a combined win expectancy of 209%. Which is to say that with normalized luck, the Herd would have been expected to win two of them.

If they had, there's no way that Marshall would be laying under a field goal here.

The pick: Marshall -2.5

Auburn (+13) at Mississippi State
ATL: MSU -11.3

As with last week's Charlotte +17 against Rice pick, you have free reign to pass on this one if you like. But I'm going to present the case.

As you're aware, Auburn fired HC Bryan Harsin on Monday. Harsin's tenure ended with a four-game losing streak. Auburn opened with victories over Mercer and San Jose State, but the Tigers have gone 1-5 since (the only win was by a FG over Missouri in OT).

But the Tigers match up well, here. And data suggests that firing an HC is not a bad thing for week-after performance, nor rest-of-season performance. Below are updated "dead-cat bounce" standings for Nebraska, Arizona State, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin, Colorado and Charlotte.

•Before firing HC: 6-22 ATS
•Week after firing HC: 4-2 ATS with three outright upsets as +14.5-or-more 'dogs
Overall since firing HC: 12-9 ATS

Auburn's best thing as a team, by far, is its pass defense (No. 36 success rate, No. 40 against explosion). It's Auburn's run defense that has dragged the unit down this year. That won't matter in this matchup against MSU's Air Raid.

Additionally, Mississippi State hasn't looked as good recently. The Bulldogs started 5-1 but have since lost two-straight. If Mississippi State overlooks Auburn, they're gonna get put on upset alert real quick.

The pick: Auburn +13

Southern Miss (-2) vs. Georgia State
ATL: USM -6.4

Southern Miss is on the rise with wins in five of six. The Golden Eagles will become bowl eligible with their next win and I think they get that here.

Georgia State has struggled to throw the ball all year, so they've leaned into the ground game - Georgia State has the highest rush rate of any non-service academy. Two problems with that, here: Georgia State's run game isn't good (No. 86 success rate), and Southern Miss' run defense is awesome (No. 15 success rate, No. 15 explosiveness).

And if GSU goes back to the pass, they'll be throwing into a USM defense that ranks No. 5 in havoc and a USM pass defense that ranks No. 18 in success rate. Not an ideal alternative.

On the other side, the weakness of the Southern Miss offense is that it has a freshman quarterback and has struggled to throw the ball. Southern Miss similarly skews run-heavy, and makes ample use of Wildcat sets.

That works here, because while GSU's pass defense is mediocre, GSU's run defense is an abomination (No. 121 success rate). Southern Miss will be able to nick that unit enough to control the clock and win this game.

The pick: Southern Miss -2

Temple (+3.5) vs. South Florida
ATL: Temple -2.4

The wrong team is favored.

The Bulls lost starting QB Gerry Bohanon to a season-ending injury and are going with QB2 Katravis Marsh for the rest of the campaign. Marsh has a career 52.3% completion percentage and 4/6 TD/INT ratio. South Florida skews run-heavy until the game starts to get away from them.

But that ground game must run into the teeth of Temple's team strength. The Owls' run defense is really good (No. 25 success rate). The Bulls are going to have issues moving the ball.

On the other side, we have one of the worst unit-on-unit matchups of any game this season, with Temple's No. 128 SP+ offense going against USF's No. 129 SP+ defense.

In Temple's first five games, it got shut out twice and scored a mere three points in another. In the three AAC games since, against defenses that averaged a No. 71 SP+ defensive ranking, the Owls have looked better in averaging 16.3 PPG.

Against USF's stinky defense, Temple could threaten 30 points (a mark they've only reached against the FCS opponent this year). I don't think USF's offense will be able to keep up with their dominant hand tied behind their back.

The pick: Temple +3.5

Kansas (+1) vs. Oklahoma State
ATL: KU -1.2

The betting market has told us so much about this game this week. Not only did this line drop suspiciously low, but sharps have mercilessly hammered Kansas since it did.

Tea-leaf reading tells you a minimum of two things: Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders is out. And there's a much better chance that KU QB Jalon Daniels returns from his own throwing shoulder injury than was previously expected.

Sanders has been valiantly playing through his throwing shoulder injury - credit to him, tough kid. But the injury not only affected Sanders' confidence in leaving the pocket, it has also killed his already shoddy accuracy and placement.

Sanders' injury clearly wasn't getting better - it appeared to be getting worse. And so, last Saturday, OSU HC Mike Gundy yanked Sanders in the second half of an embarrassing 48-0 blowout loss to Kansas State.

Sanders has not practiced this week. Beyond Sanders' shaky status, Okie State is also dealing with injury concerns at RB, WR, OL, and S.

The Pokes had a bye in Week 4 - a very-early bye. This will be their sixth-straight Big 12 game. It's the second leg of back-to-back travel off a demoralizing loss, a loss that dealt an enormous blow to OSU's Big 12 title chances.

Meanwhile, Kansas comes in fresh off a bye, and is looking at their best chance left to secure crucial Win No. 6. That would send Rock Chalk to its first bowl since 2008.

Smaller-tier bowl berths may mean nothing to you, personally. I cannot understate how crucial it would be for the Kansas football program. How voraciously the program and fans want it.

Kansas has been wandering the desert for more than a decade. Week-in and week-out kicked in the teeth and then mocked afterwards. This game isn't the Super Bowl to Kansas. Because Super Bowls happen every year. This is a chance for Kansas to rewrite a narrative.

The pick: Kansas +1

Army-Air Force (Arlington, Tx) u40.5
ATT: 39

Against top-95 SP+ defenses this season, Army has averaged 17.3 PPG, and Air Force has averaged 13.6 PPG.

These are the two-most run-happy teams in the nation. Both defenses rank in the top-52 in tackling success rate.

And, of course, the under in service academy games is the single-most profitable long-term system in existence: In the last 26 such games, the under has gone 23-2-1 ATS.

The pick: UNDER 40.5

James Madison (+7.5) at Louisville
ATL: UL -4.2

Will JMU QB Todd Centeio play? What I'm hearing is yes. Centeio warmed up for the Marshall game two weeks ago but didn't ultimately play. JMU had a bye week to give him extra time to heal.
So long as that information is correct, everything points in JMU’s direction here.

This is an awful situational spot for Louisville. Coming off last week's dominant win over Wake Forest, the Cardinals' are in a classic letdown/lookahead sandwich spot in this one-off OOC game against an FBS newcomer... with Clemson looming for Louisville next week.

Meanwhile, James Madison has had two weeks to prepare for this game. And I believe they're going to throw the kitchen sink at Louisville. Because it is transitioning up to the FBS level this year, JMU is not allowed to play in a bowl game (and has only 11 games scheduled). This is the Dukes' Super Bowl week.

The pick: James Madison +7.5

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