Here’s a look at College Football Week 12 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below you can find my best bets of the week.
Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 12 College Football Power Rankings >>
In the box below are my adjusted spreads for this weekend's games. ATL stands for "Adjusted Thor Line," and ATT stands for "Adjusted Thor Total." Spreads are from the home team’s perspective, i.e., a negative number indicates the home team is favored. In the value column, a negative number indicates points of value on the spread for the home team, while a positive number indicates points value on the away team. Similarly, in the totals value column, a negative number indicates points of line value on the over, while a positive number indicates points of line value on the under.
2022: 66-53-2 ATS (55.5%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Thor Nystrom's Best College Football Week 11 Bets (2022)
| Away |
Home |
ATL |
Spread |
Value |
ATT |
Total |
Value |
Day |
CST |
| SMU |
Tulane |
-4.7 |
-3.5 |
-1.2 |
68.5 |
64.5 |
4 |
Thursday |
6:30 PM |
| San Diego St. |
New Mexico |
12.3 |
14.5 |
-2.2 |
33.5 |
37.5 |
-4 |
Friday |
8:45 PM |
| South Florida |
Tulsa |
-10.1 |
-13.5 |
3.4 |
60.5 |
58 |
2.5 |
Friday |
8:00 PM |
| Navy |
UCF |
-15.7 |
-16.5 |
0.8 |
54 |
53 |
1 |
Saturday |
10:00 AM |
| TCU |
Baylor |
-1.0 |
3 |
-4.0 |
67 |
58 |
9 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Illinois |
Michigan |
-21.1 |
-18 |
-3.1 |
46 |
42 |
4 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Indiana |
Michigan St. |
-10.4 |
-10.5 |
0.1 |
55 |
47.5 |
7.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Northwestern |
Purdue |
-15.0 |
-19.5 |
4.5 |
51.5 |
45 |
6.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Wisconsin |
Nebraska |
10.9 |
12.5 |
-1.6 |
44 |
38.5 |
5.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Massachusetts |
Texas A&M |
-35.9 |
-33.5 |
-2.4 |
44 |
47.5 |
-3.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Florida |
Vanderbilt |
10.7 |
14.5 |
-3.8 |
65 |
57.5 |
7.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Louisiana |
Florida St. |
-17.1 |
-24.5 |
7.4 |
49.5 |
51.5 |
-2 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Connecticut |
Army |
-11.8 |
-10 |
-1.8 |
47 |
43.5 |
3.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Duke |
Pittsburgh |
-6.9 |
-7.5 |
0.6 |
62 |
53.5 |
8.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Virginia Tech |
Liberty |
-11.1 |
-9.5 |
-1.6 |
48.5 |
46.5 |
2 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| UTSA |
Rice |
13.6 |
13 |
0.6 |
68 |
61 |
7 |
Saturday |
12:00 PM |
| Georgia St. |
James Madison |
-10.0 |
-8.5 |
-1.5 |
58 |
52.5 |
5.5 |
Saturday |
1:00 PM |
| Washington St. |
Arizona |
6.5 |
4 |
2.5 |
58.5 |
63.5 |
-5 |
Saturday |
1:00 PM |
| Kansas St. |
West Virginia |
9.3 |
7.5 |
1.8 |
55 |
54.5 |
0.5 |
Saturday |
1:00 PM |
| Houston |
East Carolina |
-1.1 |
-6 |
4.9 |
71 |
68.5 |
2.5 |
Saturday |
1:00 PM |
| Oregon St. |
Arizona St. |
9.0 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
53.5 |
54 |
-0.5 |
Saturday |
1:15 PM |
| Old Dominion |
Appalachian St. |
-13.6 |
-15.5 |
1.9 |
56 |
51 |
5 |
Saturday |
1:30 PM |
| Boston College |
Notre Dame |
-19.2 |
-21 |
1.8 |
49 |
45 |
4 |
Saturday |
1:30 PM |
| South Alabama |
Southern Miss |
8.3 |
7.5 |
0.8 |
48.5 |
46.5 |
2 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Texas |
Kansas |
7.5 |
9.5 |
-2.0 |
62 |
64 |
-2 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Ohio St. |
Maryland |
19.8 |
27.5 |
-7.7 |
68.5 |
63.5 |
5 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Penn St. |
Rutgers |
20.1 |
19 |
1.1 |
46.5 |
45 |
1.5 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Miami (FL) |
Clemson |
-16.9 |
-19.5 |
2.6 |
56.5 |
48 |
8.5 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Georgia |
Kentucky |
22.6 |
22.5 |
0.1 |
45.5 |
49.5 |
-4 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| North Carolina St. |
Louisville |
-5.1 |
-4 |
-1.1 |
51.5 |
45.5 |
6 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Louisiana-Monroe |
Troy |
-13.3 |
-15 |
1.7 |
44.5 |
47.5 |
-3 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Akron |
Buffalo |
-14.0 |
-16 |
2.0 |
49 |
48 |
1 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Louisiana Tech |
Charlotte |
-1.3 |
3 |
-4.3 |
69 |
63.5 |
5.5 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Florida Atlantic |
Middle Tennessee |
3.0 |
6 |
-3.0 |
50.5 |
51 |
-0.5 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Western Kentucky |
Auburn |
-6.7 |
-5.5 |
-1.2 |
64.5 |
52.5 |
12 |
Saturday |
3:00 PM |
| Florida International |
UTEP |
-11.8 |
-14 |
2.2 |
46.5 |
51.5 |
-5 |
Saturday |
3:00 PM |
| Cincinnati |
Temple |
15.4 |
17 |
-1.6 |
49 |
51 |
-2 |
Saturday |
3:00 PM |
| Iowa |
Minnesota |
-3.4 |
-3 |
-0.4 |
34 |
32.5 |
1.5 |
Saturday |
3:00 PM |
| Arkansas St. |
Texas St. |
-1.7 |
-5.5 |
3.8 |
54.5 |
51 |
3.5 |
Saturday |
4:00 PM |
| Stanford |
California |
-5.1 |
-4.5 |
-0.6 |
44.5 |
45.5 |
-1 |
Saturday |
4:30 PM |
| Georgia Tech |
North Carolina |
-24.3 |
-21 |
-3.3 |
59 |
63.5 |
-4.5 |
Saturday |
4:30 PM |
| Marshall |
Georgia Southern |
3.7 |
4 |
-0.3 |
58 |
54 |
4 |
Saturday |
5:00 PM |
| Boise St. |
Wyoming |
13.0 |
14 |
-1.0 |
44.5 |
44.5 |
0 |
Saturday |
6:00 PM |
| Tennessee |
South Carolina |
15.2 |
21.5 |
-6.3 |
69.5 |
66 |
3.5 |
Saturday |
6:00 PM |
| Texas Tech |
Iowa St. |
-6.5 |
-3.5 |
-3.0 |
45 |
47.5 |
-2.5 |
Saturday |
6:00 PM |
| Ole Miss |
Arkansas |
3.4 |
2.5 |
0.9 |
72 |
63 |
9 |
Saturday |
6:30 PM |
| Oklahoma St. |
Oklahoma |
-6.3 |
-7.5 |
1.2 |
71 |
65.5 |
5.5 |
Saturday |
6:30 PM |
| New Mexico St. |
Missouri |
-25.6 |
-28 |
2.4 |
50.5 |
46.5 |
4 |
Saturday |
6:30 PM |
| USC |
UCLA |
-1.7 |
2.5 |
-4.2 |
80.5 |
76 |
4.5 |
Saturday |
7:00 PM |
| Syracuse |
Wake Forest |
-5.3 |
-10 |
4.7 |
61.5 |
56 |
5.5 |
Saturday |
7:00 PM |
| UAB |
LSU |
-13.8 |
-14.5 |
0.7 |
52 |
52.5 |
-0.5 |
Saturday |
8:00 PM |
| Colorado |
Washington |
-30.2 |
-31 |
0.8 |
60.5 |
64 |
-3.5 |
Saturday |
8:00 PM |
| Colorado St. |
Air Force |
-23.3 |
-22 |
-1.3 |
43 |
44 |
-1 |
Saturday |
8:00 PM |
| San Jose St. |
Utah St. |
4.3 |
1 |
3.3 |
50 |
51.5 |
-1.5 |
Saturday |
8:45 PM |
| Fresno St. |
Nevada |
17.5 |
22.5 |
-5.0 |
56.5 |
54 |
2.5 |
Saturday |
9:30 PM |
| Utah |
Oregon |
2.8 |
-3 |
5.8 |
68.5 |
63 |
5.5 |
Saturday |
9:30 PM |
| UNLV |
Hawai’i |
12.2 |
11 |
1.2 |
61 |
56 |
5 |
Saturday |
10:00 PM |
Tulane (-3.5) vs. SMU (Thursday)
ATL: Tulane -4.7
Here’s a look at College Football Week 12 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below you can find my best bets of the week.
Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 12 College Football Power Rankings >>
In the box below are my adjusted spreads for this weekend's games. ATL stands for "Adjusted Thor Line," and ATT stands for "Adjusted Thor Total." Spreads are from the home team’s perspective, i.e., a negative number indicates the home team is favored. In the value column, a negative number indicates points of value on the spread for the home team, while a positive number indicates points value on the away team. Similarly, in the totals value column, a negative number indicates points of line value on the over, while a positive number indicates points of line value on the under.
2022: 66-53-2 ATS (55.5%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Thor Nystrom's Best College Football Week 11 Bets (2022)
| Away |
Home |
ATL |
Spread |
Value |
ATT |
Total |
Value |
Day |
CST |
| SMU |
Tulane |
-4.7 |
-3.5 |
-1.2 |
68.5 |
64.5 |
4 |
Thursday |
6:30 PM |
| San Diego St. |
New Mexico |
12.3 |
14.5 |
-2.2 |
33.5 |
37.5 |
-4 |
Friday |
8:45 PM |
| South Florida |
Tulsa |
-10.1 |
-13.5 |
3.4 |
60.5 |
58 |
2.5 |
Friday |
8:00 PM |
| Navy |
UCF |
-15.7 |
-16.5 |
0.8 |
54 |
53 |
1 |
Saturday |
10:00 AM |
| TCU |
Baylor |
-1.0 |
3 |
-4.0 |
67 |
58 |
9 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Illinois |
Michigan |
-21.1 |
-18 |
-3.1 |
46 |
42 |
4 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Indiana |
Michigan St. |
-10.4 |
-10.5 |
0.1 |
55 |
47.5 |
7.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Northwestern |
Purdue |
-15.0 |
-19.5 |
4.5 |
51.5 |
45 |
6.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Wisconsin |
Nebraska |
10.9 |
12.5 |
-1.6 |
44 |
38.5 |
5.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Massachusetts |
Texas A&M |
-35.9 |
-33.5 |
-2.4 |
44 |
47.5 |
-3.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Florida |
Vanderbilt |
10.7 |
14.5 |
-3.8 |
65 |
57.5 |
7.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Louisiana |
Florida St. |
-17.1 |
-24.5 |
7.4 |
49.5 |
51.5 |
-2 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Connecticut |
Army |
-11.8 |
-10 |
-1.8 |
47 |
43.5 |
3.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Duke |
Pittsburgh |
-6.9 |
-7.5 |
0.6 |
62 |
53.5 |
8.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Virginia Tech |
Liberty |
-11.1 |
-9.5 |
-1.6 |
48.5 |
46.5 |
2 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| UTSA |
Rice |
13.6 |
13 |
0.6 |
68 |
61 |
7 |
Saturday |
12:00 PM |
| Georgia St. |
James Madison |
-10.0 |
-8.5 |
-1.5 |
58 |
52.5 |
5.5 |
Saturday |
1:00 PM |
| Washington St. |
Arizona |
6.5 |
4 |
2.5 |
58.5 |
63.5 |
-5 |
Saturday |
1:00 PM |
| Kansas St. |
West Virginia |
9.3 |
7.5 |
1.8 |
55 |
54.5 |
0.5 |
Saturday |
1:00 PM |
| Houston |
East Carolina |
-1.1 |
-6 |
4.9 |
71 |
68.5 |
2.5 |
Saturday |
1:00 PM |
| Oregon St. |
Arizona St. |
9.0 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
53.5 |
54 |
-0.5 |
Saturday |
1:15 PM |
| Old Dominion |
Appalachian St. |
-13.6 |
-15.5 |
1.9 |
56 |
51 |
5 |
Saturday |
1:30 PM |
| Boston College |
Notre Dame |
-19.2 |
-21 |
1.8 |
49 |
45 |
4 |
Saturday |
1:30 PM |
| South Alabama |
Southern Miss |
8.3 |
7.5 |
0.8 |
48.5 |
46.5 |
2 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Texas |
Kansas |
7.5 |
9.5 |
-2.0 |
62 |
64 |
-2 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Ohio St. |
Maryland |
19.8 |
27.5 |
-7.7 |
68.5 |
63.5 |
5 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Penn St. |
Rutgers |
20.1 |
19 |
1.1 |
46.5 |
45 |
1.5 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Miami (FL) |
Clemson |
-16.9 |
-19.5 |
2.6 |
56.5 |
48 |
8.5 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Georgia |
Kentucky |
22.6 |
22.5 |
0.1 |
45.5 |
49.5 |
-4 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| North Carolina St. |
Louisville |
-5.1 |
-4 |
-1.1 |
51.5 |
45.5 |
6 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Louisiana-Monroe |
Troy |
-13.3 |
-15 |
1.7 |
44.5 |
47.5 |
-3 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Akron |
Buffalo |
-14.0 |
-16 |
2.0 |
49 |
48 |
1 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Louisiana Tech |
Charlotte |
-1.3 |
3 |
-4.3 |
69 |
63.5 |
5.5 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Florida Atlantic |
Middle Tennessee |
3.0 |
6 |
-3.0 |
50.5 |
51 |
-0.5 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Western Kentucky |
Auburn |
-6.7 |
-5.5 |
-1.2 |
64.5 |
52.5 |
12 |
Saturday |
3:00 PM |
| Florida International |
UTEP |
-11.8 |
-14 |
2.2 |
46.5 |
51.5 |
-5 |
Saturday |
3:00 PM |
| Cincinnati |
Temple |
15.4 |
17 |
-1.6 |
49 |
51 |
-2 |
Saturday |
3:00 PM |
| Iowa |
Minnesota |
-3.4 |
-3 |
-0.4 |
34 |
32.5 |
1.5 |
Saturday |
3:00 PM |
| Arkansas St. |
Texas St. |
-1.7 |
-5.5 |
3.8 |
54.5 |
51 |
3.5 |
Saturday |
4:00 PM |
| Stanford |
California |
-5.1 |
-4.5 |
-0.6 |
44.5 |
45.5 |
-1 |
Saturday |
4:30 PM |
| Georgia Tech |
North Carolina |
-24.3 |
-21 |
-3.3 |
59 |
63.5 |
-4.5 |
Saturday |
4:30 PM |
| Marshall |
Georgia Southern |
3.7 |
4 |
-0.3 |
58 |
54 |
4 |
Saturday |
5:00 PM |
| Boise St. |
Wyoming |
13.0 |
14 |
-1.0 |
44.5 |
44.5 |
0 |
Saturday |
6:00 PM |
| Tennessee |
South Carolina |
15.2 |
21.5 |
-6.3 |
69.5 |
66 |
3.5 |
Saturday |
6:00 PM |
| Texas Tech |
Iowa St. |
-6.5 |
-3.5 |
-3.0 |
45 |
47.5 |
-2.5 |
Saturday |
6:00 PM |
| Ole Miss |
Arkansas |
3.4 |
2.5 |
0.9 |
72 |
63 |
9 |
Saturday |
6:30 PM |
| Oklahoma St. |
Oklahoma |
-6.3 |
-7.5 |
1.2 |
71 |
65.5 |
5.5 |
Saturday |
6:30 PM |
| New Mexico St. |
Missouri |
-25.6 |
-28 |
2.4 |
50.5 |
46.5 |
4 |
Saturday |
6:30 PM |
| USC |
UCLA |
-1.7 |
2.5 |
-4.2 |
80.5 |
76 |
4.5 |
Saturday |
7:00 PM |
| Syracuse |
Wake Forest |
-5.3 |
-10 |
4.7 |
61.5 |
56 |
5.5 |
Saturday |
7:00 PM |
| UAB |
LSU |
-13.8 |
-14.5 |
0.7 |
52 |
52.5 |
-0.5 |
Saturday |
8:00 PM |
| Colorado |
Washington |
-30.2 |
-31 |
0.8 |
60.5 |
64 |
-3.5 |
Saturday |
8:00 PM |
| Colorado St. |
Air Force |
-23.3 |
-22 |
-1.3 |
43 |
44 |
-1 |
Saturday |
8:00 PM |
| San Jose St. |
Utah St. |
4.3 |
1 |
3.3 |
50 |
51.5 |
-1.5 |
Saturday |
8:45 PM |
| Fresno St. |
Nevada |
17.5 |
22.5 |
-5.0 |
56.5 |
54 |
2.5 |
Saturday |
9:30 PM |
| Utah |
Oregon |
2.8 |
-3 |
5.8 |
68.5 |
63 |
5.5 |
Saturday |
9:30 PM |
| UNLV |
Hawai’i |
12.2 |
11 |
1.2 |
61 |
56 |
5 |
Saturday |
10:00 PM |
Tulane (-3.5) vs. SMU (Thursday)
ATL: Tulane -4.7
The Ponies are 0-4 against teams with top-50 SP+ defenses (Maryland, TCU, UCF, and Cincinnati) and 6-0 against everyone else. SMU is a top-heavy team, with a No. 10 SP+ offense reliant on explosive plays and a No. 107 SP+ defense that regularly coughs them up.
Tulane is a bad matchup for SMU. The Green Wave boasts the No. 30 SP+ defense. Not only is the Green Wave's defense strong against both the run and the pass, but it takes away explosive plays - all big things against SMU's diverse attack.
Offensively, Tulane wants to establish the run. That's going to work well against SMU's horrid run defense. The Green Wave also generates explosive plays in both the run and passing games, exploiting an SMU defense that ranks No. 120 in marginal explosiveness.
The pick: Tulane -3.5
Middle Tennessee (+6) vs. Florida Atlantic
ATL: FAU – 3.0
MTSU's offense is not efficient. But it is explosive. If it succeeds in getting the ball into space, and if the defense can't tackle in space - cough, Miami, cough - it's going to pile up yards.
FAU's defense ranks No. 100 in marginal explosiveness and No. 102 in tackle success rate. The Owls will struggle to corral MTSU in space.
On the other side of the ball, MTSU's defensive strength is against the run. MTSU doesn't have a good pass defense, but it doesn't give up long passes. FAU has a run-first offense. The Owls' passing offense isn't efficient, but it fishes for explosive plays off its running game. MTSU matches up well.
The Blue Raiders are a live home 'dog.
The pick: MTSU +6
Auburn (-5.5) vs. Western Kentucky
ATL: Auburn -6.7
Auburn has been a different team since firing Bryan Harsin and installing interim HC Cadilac Williams. In two games under Williams, Auburn is 2-0 ATS and 1-1 SU. The Tigers started 2-5-1 ATS under Harsin.
Auburn has a crappy run defense (No. 118 success rate). But the Tigers have an awesome pass defense (No. 21 success rate). This works well here because all WKU's offense does is throw. WKU's Air Raid has struggled against good pass defenses.
WKU has a bad run defense (No. 80 success rate). Auburn can't pass, but they should have some success on the ground.
Auburn not only matches up well, but they have a motivational edge. The Hilltoppers have already clinched bowl eligibility. An upset here doesn't even improve the bowl WKU will ultimately play in. The thing that matters for WKU is next week.
WKU remains in contention to play in the CUSA title game. But the Hilltoppers must win next week against FAU and get help from Rice to upset North Texas.
Auburn and Cadillac both have plenty to play for here. The Tigers are 4-6. A win keeps their dim bowl hopes alive. And though I don't think Cadillac is a serious long-term candidate at Auburn, a strong finish could get Williams onto G5 short-lists for openings that pop up nearby.
The pick: Auburn -5.5
North Carolina (-21) vs. Georgia Tech
ATL: UNC -24.3
Georgia Tech's top-two quarterbacks - Jeff Sims and Zach Pyron - are out for the year with injuries. That means that Georgia Tech will likely turn back to Zach Gibson, the transfer from Akron. You remember him. Gibson was last seen running out of bounds on a Hail Mary attempt against Virginia, explaining to the media after the game that he chose to turn the page to the next opponent because there wasn't a receiver open downfield.
Gibson completed 49% of his passes for a 1/2 TD/INT rate while getting sacked nine times before Georgia Tech pulled the plug for the freshman Pyron following Sims' injury. The only other scholarship quarterback is undersized scrambler Taisun Phommachanh, who hasn't taken a snap this year. Which is saying something considering GT's quarterback play this fall.
UNC's defense is awful. GT's offense, in the aggregate, is just as bad. But that includes the times the Yellow Jackets were at full strength. They sure won't be on Saturday. This will be the second or third time this season that UNC's defense is better than the offense it opposes.
Flipping the field, UNC's No. 2 SP+ offense is going to shred GT's No. 85 SP+ defense. Georgia Tech has no chance of keeping the Tar Heels off schedule.
Adding to the Yellow Jackets' woes, the Heels have extra motivation factors in darkhorse CFP and Drake Maye Heisman bids. The Heels will pour it on late if they get the chance.
The pick: UNC -21
Navy (+16.5) at UCF
ATL: UCF -15.7
We rode with Navy catching 17 points against Notre Dame last week, and we're returning to the well. The Midshipmen are now 5-0 ATS this season as double-digit underdogs.
As with last week, we're buoyed by a solid on-field matchup. Namely, Navy's stellar run defense against a run-first offense. If nothing else, the Midshipmen will throw a kink into UCF's ability to stay on schedule.
Navy's pass defense is rancid. UCF will need to generate yards from its hit-or-miss passing game. The Knights aren't skilled enough in this area to mercilessly pick on Navy's Achilles Heel.
The pick: Navy +16.5
Utah (+3) at Oregon
ATL: Utah -2.8
Styles make fights. And what we've so far this season suggests that this is a fight that favors the phonebooth brawler, Utah, and not the finesse Ducks.
Utah is the only team to beat one of the Pac-12's other finest finesse outfits, USC. Oregon was only outclassed once this season when they were slaughtered by Georgia (who also plays a smashmouth, two-tight-end brand of offense).
Utah is a well-rounded team, with an offense and defense that both rank in the top 25 SP+. Oregon, of course, boasts the No. 3 SP+ offense. But its No. 59 SP+ defense has come back to bite it. And its offense was impotent in the opener against Georgia and wasn't unstoppable last time out against Washington's sieve defense.
Utah's defense gives up explosive plays at an alarming rate (No. 128 IsoPPP), but Oregon's offense doesn't really generate those (No. 85 IsoPPP). Oregon's offense is an efficient machine (No. 1 success rate), and that's what Utah's defense deals better with (No. 56). If you think that's a big discrepancy, consider, on the other side, that Utah's offense (No. 7 success rate and No. 4 efficiency) is about to face one of the Power 5's most generous defenses (No. 97 success rate, No. 110 efficiency).
As if this wasn't enough, in Wednesday's media session in Eugene, multiple players hinted at Oregon QB Bo Nix being out for this game with the undisclosed injury he suffered in the Washington game. WR Kris Hutson was quoted telling a reporter, "Obviously, Bo is down, so it’s the next man up."
That man, HC Dan Lanning confirmed the same day, is QB2 Ty Thompson. This number was off anyway - my system thought it should have opened around a pick 'em. But if Nix is out, it arguably should be flipped.
The pick: Utah +3
Maryland (+27.5) vs. Ohio State
ATL: OSU -19.8
Maryland looked as bad as you can look last week against Penn State. It's going to take some courage to close your eyes and step onto the train tracks with the Terps with the Buckeye locomotive rolling into town. But buckle up because we've bought our ticket and are ready to ride.
The Buckeyes are ravaged by injuries, particularly at running back. The Buckeyes are also in a huge overlook spot, with a potential CFP eliminator game against archrival Michigan on deck. The Buckeyes just want to win and get out. It is anyone's guess as to which Buckeyes, exactly, we will see - which goes back to the motivation question... will HC Ryan Day be extra cautious with the Wolverines looming? Last week featured double-digit Buckeye inactives - how many are we getting this time?
A foot injury cost OSU RB TreVeyon Williams last Saturday's game against Indiana. Fellow committee RB Miyan Williams left that same game with an ankle injury. The Buckeyes were already thin on RB depth following the training camp injury to Evan Pryor. Ohio State had shifted LB Chip Trayanum, a former Arizona State running back, back to RB to address the perilous depth concerns two weeks ago - but Trayanum, too, was out with an injury against Indiana.
On Wednesday, Day only said he'd be "shocked" if "all three" of the injured backs - meaning Henderson, Williams, and Trayanum - missed the Maryland game. That's... not... um... a super promising statement. Because it allows for the possibility that they all could. And if that happens, we'd get the end-of-game Indiana scenario again. That was: Frosh RB Dallen Hayden functioning as the lead-back, with backup walk-on WR Xavier Johnson as RB2. And god-knows-what behind Johnson. If one or two of the three can give it a go, you can figure out how quickly Day will want to yank that person with a lead in this scenario.
Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, their injury woes go deeper than the running back room. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to be out with his hamstring injury. Starting RT Dawand Jones missed the Indiana game. While OSU got starting CB Cam Brown back from his injury against the Hoosiers, fellow starting CB Denzel Burke missed his second-consecutive game. OSU's top three CBs have missed a combined 13 games.
And, of course, there's that enormous lookahead spot to the monumental tilt against Michigan coming next week. And this super-inflated spread - by my numbers, nearly eight points - that doesn't reflect the reality of OSU's situational spot. And remember: The Buckeyes do not need style points, unlike North Carolina above. Ohio State merely needs to win out, and they're in. And with where they're at and with who's on deck in this game, win as quickly as possible and get out there as healthy as possible.
The pick: Maryland +27.5
UCLA (+2.5) vs. USC
ATL: UCLA -1.7
USC, which has battled injuries all season, has another major one to contend with. Trojans RB Travis Dye suffered a season-ending knee injury in last Friday's win over Colorado. USC will turn to a backfield platoon of veteran Austin Jones, a Stanford transfer, and hyped true freshman Raleek Brown.
Sure, most teams have worse backfield depth situations. But here's how Jones himself reacted to the Dye injury: "He's irreplaceable." Dye ranked No. 2 in the Pac-12 with 95.3 rushing YPG entering last week.
Among USC's other injuries of note are WRs Jordan Addison, Mario Williams, and LB Eric Gentry. Addison returned in the last game but wasn't 100% and played limited snaps. Williams and Gentry have both missed multiple games apiece. Each returned to practice in a limited capacity earlier this week. Both are iffy to play.
It's difficult to envision how USC's defense will stop UCLA. The Bruins' run and pass offense both rank top-6 in success rate. USC's defense ranks outside the top 100 in those categories. UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson told reporters earlier this week that the Bruins want to hang 60 points on USC. He might not be far off.
And while UCLA's defense will struggle to keep USC's defense off schedule, the Bruins' defensive charge does have one thing going for it - it is very, very good at taking away explosive plays (No. 4 marginal explosiveness). This will force USC to be more methodical in moving the ball up the field and force more usage into the Trojans' new-look backfield configuration. The loss of Dye's reliability could come into play.
The pick: UCLA +2.5
Louisiana (+24.5) at Florida St.
ATL: FSU -17.1
Play on principle. This line is out of control, with ATL saying we're getting over a touchdown of the line value. Also, Florida State has overlooked archrival Florida and has very little to play for, while Louisiana, sitting at 5-5, is still one win from bowl eligibility.
The pick: Louisiana +24.5
Vanderbilt (+14.5) vs. Florida
ATL: UF -10.7
Speaking of the overlook to FSU-Florida!
The Gators have it in an even more dangerous spot. They're in an early kick on the road against a longtime conference doormat. But Vanderbilt has very quietly improved this season.
The Commodores are not only catching over two touchdowns at home here, but they will have one huge on-field matchup going for them: Their rushing offense - led by future NFL running back Ray Davis - will get little resistance from Florida's terrible run defense. Davis has rushed for 297 over the last two games and is looking to go out with a bang.
Florida has already achieved bowl eligibility at 6-4. Sitting at 4-6, Vanderbilt still has a shot to reach its first bowl since 2018. My system says we're getting four points of line value in a vacuum and ancillary factors suggest there's more value here than that. Expect a more spirited game than pundits anticipate.
The pick: Vanderbilt +14.5
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