Thor Nystrom’s Best College Football Week 13 Bets (2022)

Here’s a look at College Football Week 13 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below you can find my best bets of the week.

Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 13 College Football Power Rankings >>

In the box below are my adjusted spreads for this weekend's games. ATL stands for "Adjusted Thor Line," and ATT stands for "Adjusted Thor Total." Spreads are from the home team’s perspective, i.e., a negative number indicates the home team is favored. In the value column, a negative number indicates points of value on the spread for the home team, while a positive number indicates points value on the away team. Similarly, in the totals value column, a negative number indicates points of line value on the over, while a positive number indicates points of line value on the under.

Here’s a look at College Football Week 13 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below you can find my best bets of the week.

Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 13 College Football Power Rankings >>

2022: 72-56-3 ATS (56.7%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

Away	Home	ATL	Spread	Value	ATT	Total	Value	Day	CST
Mississippi St.	Ole Miss	-6.0	-2.5	-3.5	67.5	59	8.5	Thursday	6:00 PM
Baylor	Texas	-9.7	-8.5	-1.2	57.5	55.5	2	Friday	11:00 AM
Utah St.	Boise St.	-18.7	-16.5	-2.2	51	52	-1	Friday	11:00 AM
Central Michigan	Eastern Michigan	-1.5	2	-3.5	52.5	54.5	-2	Friday	11:00 AM
Toledo	Western Michigan	7.7	7.5	0.2	47	53.5	-6.5	Friday	11:00 AM
Tulane	Cincinnati	-0.5	-1.5	1.0	50	46.5	3.5	Friday	11:00 AM
Arizona St.	Arizona	-3.2	-4	0.8	66	65.5	0.5	Friday	2:00 PM
North Carolina St.	North Carolina	-6.7	-6.5	-0.2	60.5	56.5	4	Friday	2:30 PM
Arkansas	Missouri	0.2	3	-2.8	57	55.5	1.5	Friday	2:30 PM
New Mexico	Colorado St.	-4.3	-7.5	3.2	33	34.5	-1.5	Friday	2:30 PM
Nebraska	Iowa	-13.8	-10.5	-3.3	38	38	0	Friday	3:00 PM
UCLA	California	11.1	10.5	0.6	61	60.5	0.5	Friday	3:30 PM
Florida	Florida St.	-11.9	-9.5	-2.4	62	58	4	Friday	6:30 PM
Wyoming	Fresno St.	-13.5	-14.5	1.0	49.5	50.5	-1	Friday	9:00 PM
Georgia Tech	Georgia	-38.3	-36.5	-1.8	42.5	48.5	-6	Saturday	11:00 AM
South Carolina	Clemson	-14.6	-14.5	0.0	58	52	6	Saturday	11:00 AM
Rutgers	Maryland	-15.2	-14	-1.2	49	49	0	Saturday	11:00 AM
Old Dominion	South Alabama	-16.7	-15.5	-1.2	47.5	48.5	-1	Saturday	11:00 AM
Army	Massachusetts	18.2	19.5	-1.3	42.5	45	-2.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
New Mexico St.	Liberty	-23.4	-24.5	1.1	52.5	51	1.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Georgia St.	Marshall	-8.0	-5.5	-2.5	46.5	45	1.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Michigan	Ohio St.	-6.9	-7.5	0.6	61.5	57.5	4	Saturday	11:00 AM
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	-12.2	-8.5	-3.7	70	64	6	Saturday	11:00 AM
Western Kentucky	Florida Atlantic	9.1	7	2.1	64	61.5	2.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Coastal Carolina	James Madison	-14.4	-13.5	-0.9	58	53.5	4.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
East Carolina	Temple	13.1	12	1.1	52.5	50.5	2	Saturday	12:00 PM
Kent St.	Buffalo	-4.7	-4	-0.7	59	53	6	Saturday	12:00 PM
Akron	Northern Illinois	-11.1	-10	-1.1	58	53	5	Saturday	12:30 PM
Rice	North Texas	-14.4	-14.5	0.1	64.5	60	4.5	Saturday	1:00 PM
Troy	Arkansas St.	11.7	13.5	-1.8	41.5	46	-4.5	Saturday	2:00 PM
Louisville	Kentucky	0.3	-3	3.3	41.5	43.5	-2	Saturday	2:00 PM
Oregon	Oregon St.	1.3	3	-1.7	62	57	5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Utah	Colorado	31.6	29.5	2.1	52.5	52.5	0	Saturday	3:00 PM
UAB	Louisiana Tech	14.0	17.5	-3.5	58	56.5	1.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
UTEP	UTSA	-14.5	-17	2.5	58.5	56.5	2	Saturday	2:30 PM
Wake Forest	Duke	0.1	3.5	-3.4	68	66.5	1.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Hawai’i	San Jose St.	-16.8	-14.5	-2.3	52.5	57.5	-5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Auburn	Alabama	-20.7	-22.5	1.8	57	49	8	Saturday	2:30 PM
Illinois	Northwestern	17.5	13.5	4.0	38.5	37.5	1	Saturday	2:30 PM
Minnesota	Wisconsin	-1.5	-3	1.5	40.5	36	4.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Purdue	Indiana	9.8	10.5	-0.7	58	54.5	3.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Memphis	SMU	-3.2	-4.5	1.3	77.5	69	8.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Michigan St.	Penn St.	-20.2	-18.5	-1.7	56.5	53.5	3	Saturday	3:00 PM
Iowa St.	TCU	-12.4	-9.5	-2.9	48	47.5	0.5	Saturday	3:00 PM
Southern Miss	Louisiana-Monroe	8.2	3	5.2	54	51	3	Saturday	4:00 PM
Louisiana	Texas St.	2.0	5.5	-3.5	43	45.5	-2.5	Saturday	4:00 PM
Appalachian St.	Georgia Southern	7.7	4.5	3.2	64.5	63	1.5	Saturday	5:00 PM
Middle Tennessee	Florida International	17.0	19.5	-2.5	50.5	55.5	-5	Saturday	5:00 PM
Nevada	UNLV	-12.3	-12.5	0.2	55	49	6	Saturday	5:00 PM
LSU	Texas A&M	10.5	9.5	1.0	49	47	2	Saturday	6:00 PM
UCF	South Florida	23.0	19.5	3.5	62	69	-7	Saturday	6:00 PM
Oklahoma	Texas Tech	2.9	2.5	0.4	66.5	64	2.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Tennessee	Vanderbilt	14.2	14.5	-0.3	68.5	64	4.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Notre Dame	USC	-5.3	-5.5	0.2	66	64.5	1.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Tulsa	Houston	-12.2	-12	-0.1	70	67	3	Saturday	6:30 PM
Syracuse	Boston College	9.8	10.5	-0.7	47.5	47	0.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Kansas	Kansas St.	-14.0	-12	-2.0	59	62.5	-3.5	Saturday	7:00 PM
Pittsburgh	Miami (FL)	2.0	6.5	-4.5	51	43.5	7.5	Saturday	7:00 PM
Air Force	San Diego St.	6.4	2	4.4	39.5	44.5	-5	Saturday	8:00 PM
Washington	Washington St.	0.0	2	-2.0	59	60	-1	Saturday	9:30 PM
Brigham Young	Stanford	3.7	6.5	-2.8	59.5	57.5	2	Saturday	10:00 PM

Tulane (+1.5) at Cincinnati (Friday)
ATL: Cincy -0.5

Huge stakes: The winner hosts next week's AAC conference title game. The loser will fall into a tiebreaker scenario with UCF and Houston - if those two programs win as double-digit favorites this weekend against USF and Tulsa, respectively.

Tulane has the best cover rate in America this year, while Cincinnati’s win rate against the spread is bottom-5 in the FBS. Tulane probably has the motivation edge. While Cincy was in the CFP last season, Tulane has never played in the AAC title game. Tulane won Conference USA in 1998.

Cincinnati's offense has three major problems here: QB Ben Bryant is questionable with a foot injury, the Bearcats' rushing attack is toothless (No. 112 success rate), and Tulane has one of the G5's best defenses (No. 31). Cincy QB2 Evan Prater will start if Bryant can't - Prater is a downgrade.

Cincinnati has an even better defense (No. 15 SP+). But I like Tulane's odds of moving the ball against it better than vice-versa. Tulane's offense can run and throw and is both efficient and explosive. The first to three touchdowns are likely your winner, and Tulane appears more capable of getting there.

The pick: Tulane +1.5

Missouri (+3) vs. Arkansas (Friday)
ATL: Arkansas -0.2

Arkansas, 6-5, clinched bowl eligibility last week by smoking Mississippi. Could this be a hangover spot for the Hogs? If it is, they could be in trouble.

Missouri is going to be locked in. The 5-6 Tigers need this one to go bowling. And Missouri matches up well enough to make that a realistic possibility.

Missouri's offense is no great shakes, but it can do a few things that will give Arkansas trouble. The Tigers are a run-first team - the attack isn't dangerous, but it'll nick up this horrible Hogs rushing defense. The Tigers' quick passing game will also test Arkansas' ability to tackle in space.

When Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson is healthy, as he now appears to be, the Hogs have a dangerous offense. Missouri's feisty defense profiles as capable of slowing Jefferson through the air while greatly mitigating the damage he can do on the ground.

The pick: Mizzou +3

Florida State (-9.5) vs. Florida (Friday)
ATL: FSU -11.9

We faded Florida as 14.5-point favs at Vandy last week, and the Commodores stunned the Gators with an outright upset. We're returning to the well and fading Florida again.

Florida State is one of the nation's hottest teams, winners of four straight, all by 25 or more (all four opponents were either 5-6 or 6-5). The Seminoles' offense has been humming since QB Jordan Travis returned to full health last month.

Here's where the rubber is going to meet the road: FSU's running offense is one of the best, and one of the most dynamic, in all of the nation - while Florida's run defense, as we harped upon last week in our UF-Vandy writeup, is an abomination. The Gators have no earthly chance of slowing FSU's run game.

On the other side of the ball, Florida's offense isn't efficient (No. 78 success rate). Still, it's very explosive (No. 3). Here's the issue: Florida State's defense is elite at taking away explosive plays (No. 2). Florida's offense depends on those explosive plays to score points. When they go away, so does Florida's attack. Seminoles romp.

The pick: FSU -9.5

Auburn (+22.5) at Alabama (Saturday)
ATL: Bama -20.7

Speaking of returning to the well! Auburn has been on a heater under interim HC Cadillac Williams, covering all three games since he replaced Bryan Harsin (2-1 ATS). In this column, we were on Auburn for two-of-those-three covers - and we're riding Cadillac again.

The Tigers and Williams himself have everything to play for: Auburn would cap off an improbable rally into bowl season if they can pull the stunner, and Williams would continue to bolster his resume for his next job.

By contrast, this game means little for two-loss Alabama. The Tide have already been eliminated from the SEC title game and the CFP. This isn't a style-points situation, and the Tide are banged-up.

Alabama sat RB Jahmyr Gibbs, TE Cameron Latu, and CB Eli Ricks against its FCS sacrificial lamb opponent last week. But the Tide, per HC Nick Saban, will get back at least Gibbs and Ricks for this one. It's unclear if LT Tyler Steen will play after he twisted his ankle last week.

This is also a sneaky-poor on-field matchup for Alabama. Auburn has a really good pass defense but a terrible run defense. If he's indeed 100 percent, Gibbs will have a big day. But Bama's aerial show will be greatly slowed. The Tide's receivers, an abject season-long disappointment, will struggle to separate all afternoon. And for a receiving corps that has had issues with drops, it doesn't inspire confidence that many of Alabama's chances on Saturday are likely to be contested.

On the other side, Bama's defensive strength is its pass defense. But Auburn only wants to run, with both its young quarterback and its backfield rotation. Alabama has struggled against the run all season. Auburn should be able to stay on schedule offensively while giving its defense time to rest as it nicks Bama's soft front.

I'm not going to call for the outright upset - Auburn is nearly 11-to-1 on the moneyline - but I do think the Tigers are going to put a scare into Alabama in the Iron Bowl.

The pick: Auburn +22.5

Notre Dame (+5.5) at USC (Saturday)
ATL: USC -5.3

Now it's time to mention one of last week's misfires: Our UCLA +2.5 ticket fell a half-point short when QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson was picked off by USC on the game-winning-drive-that-wasn't.

We're going to take one more crack at fading USC. One area of last week's UCLA-USC handicap that we got right: UCLA indeed threw the kitchen sink into a game they prioritized. To USC's credit, it answered the call and won an emotional, back-and-forth track meet.

Seven days later, the Trojans will have to turn around and play an Irish squad that shares zero similarities with UCLA. The two-most analogous teams to Notre Dame that USC has played this year, Oregon State and Utah, both gave the Trojans all kinds of issues.

The Beavers discombobulated USC's elite offense. USC QB Caleb Williams went 16-for-36 for one TD and a season-low 180 yards. The Trojans were bailed out by RB Travis Dye's 133 rushing yards. Dye is now out for the season with a knee injury.

USC suffered its only loss of the season against Utah. Williams was elite in that game. But USC's porous defense for one evening turned Utah QB Cam Rising and TE Dalton Kincaid into Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Rising had 475 yards of total offense and five total TD, while Kincaid went berzerk with a 16-234-1 line. Kincaid began the season as Utah's TE2.

Just last week, the Trojans gave up three TD catches to UCLA TE Michael Ezeike. Earlier this year, USC gave up five catches to Stanford TE Benjamin Yurosek. Issues defending tight ends are a big problem against Notre Dame. The Irish have the biggest TE matchup nightmare in the nation in Michael Mayer - expect Mayer to have a monster game.

USC's defense ranks a mediocre No. 64 SP+. That unit continues to be propped up with unsustainable turnover luck - per SP+, USC has benefited from 7.4 PPG of turnover fortune this year.

USC can beat Notre Dame. But Notre Dame isn't going to help them. Notre Dame is tied for No. 28 in the nation in turnovers lost. The physical, run-first Irish will dominate the line of scrimmage on offense and move the ball on the ground at will. USC's run defense ranks No. 123 in success rate, while Notre Dame is No. 23 in that category.

On the other side, you can run on Notre Dame, but the Irish have an elite pass defense. The Irish are likely to throw a kink into USC's aerial-driven offense. USC WR Jordan Addison did prove he was back to full health last week. But his running mate WR Mario Williams is clearly not.

Williams only played 24 snaps against UCLA and clearly wasn't himself, posting a 44.4 PFF game grade. USC starting LB Eric Gentry also rushed his return from injury against UCLA. Gentry only got through seven tackle-less snaps before USC yanked him because he was limping in pursuit.

The pick: Notre Dame +5.5

Vanderbilt (+14.5) vs. Tennessee (Saturday)
ATL: Tennessee -14.2

This is one of the biggest motivation-discrepancy games on the card this week, so we're riding with Vandy once more. Last week's upset over Florida left the Commodores 5-6, one win from bowl eligibility. Vandy hasn't played in a bowl since 2018 and wants to return this season badly.

Different story on the Tennessee side. The Vols' season was blown up in a 63-38 loss to South Carolina last week. They were embarrassed on the field, and Tennessee lost star QB Hendon Hooker for the season with a torn ACL.

QB2 Joe Milton is an enormous downgrade. In 247 career passes, Milton has completed 57.1% of his passes for a 13/6 TD/INT rate and 8.7 YPA. Hooker completed 66.9% of his career 944 attempts for an 80/12 TD/INT rate and 9.5 YPA.

Vanderbilt has a strong rushing attack but struggles to throw. The latter could also have been said about South Carolina heading into last week. Still, Tennessee's abominable pass defense has made a habit out of turning opposing quarterbacks into stars for a day.

Tennessee's once-proud run defense gave up 153 rushing yards and three TD to a South Carolina team that had to use a tight end as its lead RB because all its running backs were injured.

Tennessee's offense will play way down with Milton, who has tools but lacks accuracy and makes poor decisions. That gives hope that the Vols won't just run away with this one. Between our mindset questions about Tennessee and Vandy's do-or-die motivational situation, we're taking the points with the 'Dores.

The pick: Vanderbilt +14.5

UTEP (+17) at UTSA (Saturday)
ATL: UTSA -14.5

I mentioned above that Vandy-Tennessee was one of the biggest motivation discrepancy games of Week 13. UTEP-UTSA is arguably the biggest of them all. UTSA, 9-2, has already clinched a CUSA title game berth. UTEP, 5-6, will throw everything into this game with their postseason lives on the line.

The Roadrunners' attention is on next week, not this game. Don't just take my word for it. Let's rewind a year when this same team was in this exact same spot.

Heading into Week 13 of the 2021 season, UTSA had already locked in its conference title game berth. The Roadrunners were 10.5-point road favorites against 5-6 North Texas. The Mean Green was the objectively inferior team but had all the motivation in the world, while UTSA's motivation was to not suffer an injury or give WKU any usable tape.

North Texas stunned UTSA 45-23. I watched part of that game. UTSA went vanilla with its playbook and treated the game like a walkthrough. But the strategy ultimately worked for UTSA: It beat WKU in the CUSA title game the next week, 49-41. That was the goal and mission accomplished.

We'd have been singing a different tune had this game been played in October. But we've seen this movie before. If UTSA deploys a similar strategy this week as they did in last year's analogous spot, UTEP will have a really good shot at the outright upset that would send the Miners to bowl season.

The pick: UTEP +17

Appalachian State (-4.5) at Georgia Southern (Saturday)
ATL: ASU -7.7

A loser-leaves-town Week 13 game! The winner achieves bowl eligibility, while the loser stays home for the holidays.

Appalachian State is 6-5, but two of those wins came against FCS teams, and only one counts toward bowl eligibility. Georgia Southern is 5-6. The Eagles have been on the doorstep for a while now, but things have started to slip away with three-straight losses.

A big reason for that is injuries. Georgia Southern is ravaged. GSU QB Kyle Van Trease, rumored to potentially be out last week, started and played the duration against Marshall but clearly isn't fully healthy.

The rest of GSU's roster is compromised. Among those out for the season include 345-pound DT Latrell Bullard, the long snapper, and three receivers from a WR corps that previously was amongst the G5's best.

Appy's 6-5 record is supported by its 6.1 second-order wins. GSU clearly benefited from circumstances and luck earlier this fall when they were healthy enough to be able to. The 5-6 Eagles have only 3.7 second-order wins (-1.3).

And here's a wild stat for you: Georgia Southern has not posted a postgame win expectancy above 35% since September! The Eagles breeched that percentile against two FBS opponents that month: Nebraska and Ball State.

Appy is the clearly superior team, and I think they'll win this eliminator game by double-digits.

The pick: Appy St -4.5

Marshall (-5.5) vs. Georgia State (Saturday)
ATL: Marshall -8.0

Pretty straightforward handicap here. You can totally shut down GSU's offense if you can stop the run - the Panthers have the highest run rate of any non-option team in the nation. Marshall's run defense is elite. Not just the best in the G5, but one of the best in the nation - the Herd's run D ranks No. 6 in success rate and No. 10 in explosiveness.

The Herd, 7-4, have played better than their record this year with 8.4 (+1.4) second-order wins. And Marshall, unlike almost every other college team out there, was able to bolster its roster instead of watching it wither to injuries.

Marshall star RB Rasheen Ali, a preseason All-American, returned to game action last week after sitting out the first 10 games to focus on his mental health. Ali didn't appear too rusty, rushing 16 times for 79 yards with five yards receiving.

While Marshall is ascending, Georgia State went the opposite direction this year and will be done for the season after playing out this string. GSU blew its shot at a bowl by losing its last two games to UL-Monroe and James Madison.

The pick: Marshall -5.5

Washington State (+2) vs. Washington (Saturday)
ATL: UW -0.0

This year's Apple Cup returns to relevance, with 9-2 Washington at 7-4 Wazzu. This game is almost assuredly for nothing beyond bowl positioning. Washington still has a path into the Pac-12 title game - but it's not only convoluted, but it's also a serious longshot.

Washington must beat Washington State, have Oregon State beat Oregon, and then - here's where the odds really juice against them - have either Cal upset UCLA or Colorado upset Utah. To give you an idea of the odds of that happening: A three-team moneyline parlay of Washington, Oregon State, and Cal pays roughly 15-to-1.

Wazzu matches up well against UW this year. Washington has played only one top-40 SP+ defense all season. The Huskies were held to 24 points in that game by Oregon State.

Wazzu's defense ranks No. 12 SP+ - by far and away, it is the best defense that Washington will have played. Washington's entire renaissance has been built around passing efficiency (No. 4 success rate).

Wazzu's pass defense can address that and any opponent UW has seen (No. 40 success rate). It can also address Washington's success in converting scoring opportunities into points (No. 3). Wazzu's defense ranks No. 22 in the same category.

Conversely, Wazzu will move the ball every time they get it. Wazzu's offense isn't very explosive, but it takes a profit each play. The Cougars rank No. 33 in offensive efficiency, while Washington's defense ranks No. 111 in efficiency.

We think the Cougars will rise up and upset their archrival.

The pick: Wazzu +2

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