Thor Nystrom’s Best College Football Week 7 Bets (2022)

Here’s a look at College Football Week 7 spreads and my projections. Below you can find my best bets of the week.

In the box below are my adjusted spreads for this weekend's games. ATL stands for "Adjusted Thor Line," and ATT stands for "Adjusted Thor Total." Spreads are from the home team’s perspective, i.e., a negative number indicates the home team is favored. In the value column, a negative number indicates points of value on the spread for the home team, while a positive number indicates points value on the away team. Similarly, in the totals value column, a negative number indicates points of line value on the over, while a positive number indicates points of line value on the under.

Last week: 10-3 ATS | 2022: 33-32-2 ATS (50.8%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

Here’s a look at College Football Week 7 spreads and my projections. Below you can find my best bets of the week.

Last week: 10-3 ATS | 2022: 33-32-2 ATS (50.8%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

Away	Home	ATL	Spread	Value	ATT	Total	Value	Day	CST
Baylor	West Virginia	2.3	2.5	-0.2	57.5	54.5	3.0	Thursday	6:00 PM
Temple	UCF	-21.6	-23.5	1.9	41.5	46	-4.5	Thursday	6:00 PM
Navy	SMU	-16.1	-12.5	-3.6	59	57.5	1.5	Friday	6:30 PM
UTSA	Florida International	27.8	33.5	-5.7	58	63.5	-5.5	Friday	7:00 PM
Penn St.	Michigan	-12.1	-7	-5.1	54	51.5	2.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Auburn	Ole Miss	-12.9	-14.5	1.6	51.5	55	-3.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Iowa St.	Texas	-16.9	-17	0.1	52.5	49.5	3.0	Saturday	11:00 AM
Kansas	Oklahoma	-8.6	-9	0.4	71.5	62.5	9.0	Saturday	11:00 AM
Central Michigan	Akron	13.0	13	0.0	61.5	58.5	3.0	Saturday	11:00 AM
Miami (OH)	Bowling Green	7.4	6.5	0.9	55.5	46	9.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Minnesota	Illinois	5.5	6.5	-1.0	44	39.5	4.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Old Dominion	Coastal Carolina	-13.1	-12.5	-0.6	59.5	56.5	3.0	Saturday	11:00 AM
Miami (FL)	Virginia Tech	6.1	7	-0.9	54.5	47	7.5	Saturday	11:30 AM
Buffalo	Massachusetts	18.4	17	1.4	52	47	5.0	Saturday	12:00 PM
California	Colorado	14.4	14.5	-0.1	41.5	48.5	-7.0	Saturday	1:00 PM
Connecticut	Ball St.	-6.2	-9.5	3.3	46	47.5	-1.5	Saturday	1:00 PM
Vanderbilt	Georgia	-37.4	-38.5	1.1	56	58	-2.0	Saturday	2:30 PM
Alabama	Tennessee	6.8	7.5	-0.7	76.5	65.5	11.0	Saturday	2:30 PM
Oklahoma St.	TCU	-3.9	-4	0.1	67.5	68	-0.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Maryland	Indiana	15.3	11	4.3	56.5	61.5	-5.0	Saturday	2:30 PM
North Carolina St.	Syracuse	0.2	-3.5	3.7	50	42	8.0	Saturday	2:30 PM
Arkansas	Brigham Young	-1.9	1.5	-3.4	70	66	4.0	Saturday	2:30 PM
Texas St.	Troy	-13.3	-16	2.7	48	47	1.0	Saturday	2:30 PM
Ohio	Western Michigan	-4.6	-1	-3.6	63	58.5	4.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Northern Illinois	Eastern Michigan	-3.2	-2.5	-0.7	74	66.5	7.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Charlotte	UAB	-24.6	-23.5	-1.1	66	63	3.0	Saturday	2:30 PM
Kent St.	Toledo	-13.2	-8.5	-4.7	69	61.5	7.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Western Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	8.3	8	0.3	71	67	4.0	Saturday	2:30 PM
Tulane	South Florida	13.5	12	1.5	53	55	-2.0	Saturday	3:00 PM
Louisiana Tech	North Texas	-8.0	-6.5	-1.5	70	68.5	1.5	Saturday	3:00 PM
Wisconsin	Michigan St.	5.7	7.5	-1.8	54	49	5.0	Saturday	3:00 PM
James Madison	Georgia Southern	6.1	11.5	-5.4	55.5	66.5	-11.0	Saturday	3:00 PM
Louisiana-Monroe	South Alabama	-15.2	-17	1.8	56.5	51.5	5.0	Saturday	4:00 PM
Arizona	Washington	-15.9	-14.5	-1.4	59	72	-13.0	Saturday	4:30 PM
Rice	Florida Atlantic	-1.7	-4	2.3	54	55.5	-1.5	Saturday	5:00 PM
LSU	Florida	3.7	-2.5	6.2	60.5	52	8.5	Saturday	6:00 PM
Utah St.	Colorado St.	7.9	11	-3.1	56	45.5	10.5	Saturday	6:00 PM
Arkansas St.	Southern Miss	-8.9	-4	-4.9	52	55	-3.0	Saturday	6:00 PM
Clemson	Florida St.	3.2	3.5	-0.4	52	51	1.0	Saturday	6:30 PM
Stanford	Notre Dame	-15.9	-16.5	0.6	52	53.5	-1.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Memphis	East Carolina	-5.5	-5	-0.5	60.5	58.5	2.0	Saturday	6:30 PM
Nebraska	Purdue	-11.8	-13.5	1.7	64.5	56.5	8.0	Saturday	6:30 PM
Mississippi St.	Kentucky	2.9	4	-1.1	58.5	49	9.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
USC	Utah	-7.3	-3.5	-3.8	63.5	65	-1.5	Saturday	7:00 PM
New Mexico	New Mexico St.	7.2	6.5	0.7	48.5	37.5	11.0	Saturday	7:00 PM
North Carolina	Duke	4.5	7	-2.5	79	66	13.0	Saturday	7:00 PM
Washington St.	Oregon St.	-2.6	-3.5	0.9	58	52.5	5.5	Saturday	8:00 PM
Air Force	UNLV	6.1	10	-3.9	56	50	6.0	Saturday	9:30 PM
San Jose St.	Fresno St.	7.5	8.5	-1.0	46	47.5	-1.5	Saturday	9:45 PM
Nevada	Hawai’i	10.8	6.5	4.3	67.5	49	18.5	Saturday	10:59 PM

Tennessee (+7.5) vs. Alabama
ATL: Bama -6.8

This spread is more or less fair if Alabama QB Bryce Young is fully healthy. It's slightly off if Young plays but is compromised. And it's way, way off if Young doesn't play.

Alabama is in deep trouble if Young is inactive again, as he was last week against Texas A&M with a right shoulder AC joint sprain. Not only because there's a seismic qualitative drop-off to QB2 Jalen Milroe, but also because it prevents Alabama from exploiting Tennessee's biggest singular weakness.

The Vols have a below-average pass defense that ranks No. 73 in success rate. A healthy Young piles up yardage against that pass defense. Milroe, as yet, is not equipped to take advantage. He's a fabulous athlete who remains raw as a passer - an issue exacerbated by Alabama's down receiving corps.

What Milroe can do is run. Young was injured in the second quarter of the Oct. 1 game against Arkansas. In the six-plus quarters since Milroe took over, Milroe has rushed for 172 yards and a TD. Extrapolated, that's an average of more than 100 rushing yards per game. Alabama's passing offense drops off a cliff with Milroe in, but the Tide's rushing attack becomes a little more dangerous.

Here's the problem for Bama in that scenario: Tennessee's run defense is awesome. The Vols' run D ranks No. 3 in success rate and No. 9 in stuff rate. The combo of Milroe and RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and Jase McClellan are enough to beat most teams (they ran for 235 yards combined last week versus A&M) without a humming passing attack. Not the Vols.

Alabama has a strong defense. Tennessee will move the ball on it. The Vols will move the ball against any defense in the nation. The Vols are multiple - ranking top-10 in both rushing and passing success - and have one of the sport's truly elite offensive play-callers calling the shots in HC Josh Heupel. Tennessee is like a pitcher with four filthy pitches and great control who sequences impeccably, overwhelming and confusing batters.

Vols WR1 Cedric Tillman didn't play against LSU due to the high-ankle sprain he suffered against Florida on Sept. 24. The Alabama game was always Tillman's target return date. Heupel also expects starting LT Gerald Mincey back this week after Mincey missed the LSU game.

If there's good news about Tillman's absence, it's that it thrust Vols WR Bru McCoy into a featured role in which he could sink or swim. He swam. The former five-star posted consecutive 100-yard games and finally appears to be flowering into what the recruiting gurus told us he'd become out of high school.

Young is worth around 10 points on the spread. Tillman is worth a point or two. If Young is out and Tillman is in, I'd actually favor Tennessee outright. If Young plays but isn't himself - which is the heavily-favored outcome two-weeks out from an AC sprain of his throwing shoulder - I'd nick Alabama a field goal or so on my spread. Either way, the value is on Tennessee.

Pick: Tennessee +7.5

Eastern Michigan (-2.5) vs. Northern Illinois
ATL: EMU -3.2

Despite rampant reports that NIU QB Rocky Lombardi will miss the rest of the season, the Huskies have mimed Lombardi could return in recent weeks, calling him a "gametime decision" before ultimately not playing him. As is often the case, I believe the reports in this situation, not the team.

We're going to see NIU QB2 Ethan Hampton again. Hampton has been an enormous downgrade. Since the beginning of last year, Lombardi has completed 59.3% of his passes for 7.7 AY/A and a 20/9 TD/INT ratio, while Hampton has completed 57,6% for 5.2 AY/A and a 7/6 TD/INT ratio. Lombardi also provides a rushing element (473 yards, nine TD last year) that Hampton doesn't (-16 career rushing yards).

EMU knows the pain of playing with the backup QB. Last month, EMU lost 50-31 to Buffalo with QB Taylor Powell out. Outside of that game, EMU is 4-1. Every win came by a TD or more. Powell is averaging 295 passing YPG.

Last year, NIU played with a horseshoe stuffed up their trousers. The Huskies' nine-win improvement — 0-6 to 9-5 MAC champs - came courtesy of a series of fluky circumstances. NIU's four games by two points or less - they won a fifth in OT - was the most by a team since 2004 (Virginia).

This year, luck normalization has come crashing down on NIU. The Huskies have lost five-straight since beating an FCS team in the opener. Without Lombardi, this team appears close to packing it in for the fall. And they'll be given every reason to in what is a poor matchup on-paper.

EMU is No. 20 in offensive success rate, No. 5 in rushing success rate, and No. 22 in passing success rate. NIU's defense ranks No. 118 in success rate, No. 77 in rushing success rate, and No. 124 in passing success rate.

And while EMU cashes in scoring opportunities - ranking No. 16 in points per scoring opportunity - NIU's defense is a sieve backed-up, ranking No. 130 in points per scoring opportunity allowed.

The pick: EMU -2.5

Kansas (+9) at Oklahoma
ATL: OU -8.6

The Jayhawks are 5-0-1 ATS, one of only three teams that hasn't yet suffered an ATS loss (the other two, James Madison and TCU, have played five games to KU's six). The Sooners have failed to cover four of their last five games. Yet the Jayhawks continue to get no respect on the line, while the sportsbooks continue to drop bad Oklahoma spreads. We've got a window of opportunity here.

Since a cotton-soft opening-slate (UTEP, Kent State, Nebraska), Oklahoma has been exposed. In the past three games - against K-State, TCU, and Texas - OU has lost by an average score of 48-19.

This line opened in the OU -7/-7.5 range. In the days since Sunday, the market has reacted to quarterback health news on both sides in pushing this spread to OU -9. KU QB Jalon Daniels (right shoulder) is listed as doubtful but will likely miss the game, while OU QB Dillon Gabriel is listed as questionable but is likely to play.

Gabriel might be worth 10 points on the spread for OU - his status is enormous for this handicap. My adjusted number above is with a healthy Gabriel - if the tides change and he's out, I'd favor Kansas. The drop-off to Davis Beville is that large, as anyone who watched Oklahoma get demoralized by Texas 49-0 last weekend could attest.

KU's Daniels is a good player. But his absence for KU isn't worth nearly as much as Gabriel's would be for OU. That's because of the quality of each team's backup QBs. Daniels' backup, Jason Bean, lit up TCU off the bench in the second half of last week's near-miss, going 16-for-24 for 262 yards, four TD, and one INT.

Bean started in 2020 at North Texas, and also started the first nine games for KU last season before suffering an injury. Bean has a solid arm, and he's a former Texas prep track star who is one of the fastest players on the team. Bean is also extremely well-versed in HC Lance Leipold's offense.

Bean is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the FBS. As crazy as this sounds in lieu of Daniels' great start... Bean isn't much of a downgrade. Bean would be starting for at least one-quarter of the FBS' 131 teams, while Beville likely wouldn't have won the job at any.

While the market focuses on Gabriel's availability, OU has much bigger health problems on the other side of the ball. Venables has already said starting S Billy Bowman will miss this game, Without Bowman prowling deep, Texas had no problem hunting for the long ball last week.

Oklahoma is also down to four healthy scholarship linebackers due to injuries. Venables was terrified of LB depth publicly before Shane Whittier's season-ending injury. OU has had to rely heavily on one walk-on at the position, and it may have to start burning redshirts.

The injuries and apparent lack of talent have put Venables in a tough spot. Does Venables go vanilla the rest of the way and neuter his schematic advantage, or does ge ask his outmanned LB corps to perform tasks they aren't capable of? Classic lose-lose.

Any way you cut it, Kansas' offense against Oklahoma's defense is an enormous mismatch in favor of the Jayhawks. While the Jayhawks rank No. 26 in success rate, No. 10 in IsoPPP (explosiveness), and No. 32 in points per scoring opportunity, the Sooners' defense ranks No. 98, No. 51, and No. 101 in those categories. Kansas is adept at getting into the ball into space and forcing one-on-one tackle attempts. The Sooners rank No. 125 in tackle rate.

Kansas is a live underdog, even with Bean under center, and even if Gabriel is a-go. If the tide turns and Gabriel is ruled out, load up on KU.

Pick: Kansas +9

Syracuse (-3.5) vs. North Carolina State
ATL: Syracuse -0.2

All indications point towards NC State QB Devin Leary being out. That would leave the starting job to veteran backup Jack Chambers. NC State's offense was already problematic.

While NC State appears to have gotten bad news on Leary, it looks like they got good news on RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye and WR Devin Carter. HC Dave Doeren said he expects both to play at Syracuse.

But NC State, coming off a grueling loss to Clemson and a grueling, narrow win over Florida State, is beat up. On the other side, Syracuse, this week's opponent, is fresh as a daisy.

The Orange are basically coming off two-straight bye weeks. Two weeks ago, Syracuse beat FCS Wagner before going on their official bye.

Syracuse is the far fresher team, and the home team. They're catching the opponent in a bad spot. And with Leary out, Syracuse is also the better team.

Pick: Syracuse -3.5

Utah (-3.5) vs. USC
ATL: Utah -7.3

My system loves Utah. And the Utes matches up really, really well with USC.

USC's offense has been highly efficient (No. 14 success rate), but hasn't yet found explosiveness (No. 64 IsoPPP) in Lincoln Riley's first season. The way to beat Utah's defense is through explosive plays (No. 113 IsoPPP). The Utes hinder opponent's plans to stay on schedule (No. 49 success rate).

On the other side of the ball, the Utes's offense is elite in efficiency (No. 8 success rate), but can't buy an explosive play to save its life (No. 82 IsoPPP). The Trojans defense has proven solid at taking away explosive plays (No. 41 IsoPPP), but is utterly incapable of preventing opponents from moving the sticks (No. 105 success rate).

Utah's defense is particularly good against the pass. It is not concerned with USC's myriad receivers, because it can match them body-for-body across the alignment. And that'll become the case all the more so if USC WR Jordan Addison isn't 100%. Addison got nicked up in the last game (but did return to finish it).

USC is 6-0. But boy has it played with fire to get here. The Trojans had to come-from-behind late to beat Oregon State. USC was only up by four against a DOA Arizona State team in Week 5. Last week, USC only led Wazzu by a field goal midway through the 3Q.

USC's No. 50 defense has been bailed out by an unsustainable amount of turnover luck. Per SP+, USC's expected TO margin is +2.9. Its actual TO margin is +14. SP+ indicates that the Trojans have benefited from 9.2 points of turnover luck per game! What if those points evaporated in a game?

Utah takes care of the ball. QB Cam Rising owns a career 33/9 TD/INT rate in 497 attempts. USC's biggest weakness is its brutal run defense (No. 108 success rate, No. 129 marginal explosiveness). Utah RB Tavion Thomas is a star. He should mercilessly pick on that unit all game long.

Pick: Utah -3.5

LSU (+3) at Florida
ATL: LSU -3.7

Due to LSU QB Jayden Daniels' accuracy issues and the Tigers' lack of explosion in the backfield, the Bayou Bengals struggle to generate explosive plays (No. 126 IsoPPP). But LSU's diverse run game and get-you-over passing attack has kept the chains moving (No. 34 success rate).

Florida's defense is equipped to stop the thing LSU doesn't do (No. 39 IsoPPP), but struggles badly in the area LSU's offense excels in (No. 112 success rate). In particular, Florida's run defense (No. 110 success rate) is going to have problems slowing LSU's rushing attack (No. 19 success rate).

On the other side of the ball, LSU's pass defense is very strong, and it isn't short on athleticism. It should be able to slow Florida's inconsistent passing attack. Florida's rushing game has surprisingly not been efficient (No. 80 success rate), but has gotten by through generating explosive runs (No. 1 rushing explosion).

This, too, plays into LSU's hands. LSU's defense struggles to stop opposing rushing attacks from moving the chains (No. 80 efficiency), but can prevent the explosive runs that Florida feasts on (No. 29 rushing explosiveness).

My numbers say the wrong team is favored. I think LSU prevails in this one.

Pick: LSU +3

Toledo (-7.5) vs. Kent State | o61.5
ATL: Toledo -13.2
ATT: 69

The spread feels short to me and my system. So much so that it's curious. Then again, we had a similar thing last week with Kent State favored by nearly a TD at Miami (OH) when my system favored Miami... and the Redhawks won outright.

Toledo has a solid defense that is awesome against the run (No. 13 success rate). Kent State will be incentivized to pass. The Golden Flashes are very good at connecting on explosive passes (No. 28), but Toledo is also good at taking those away (No. 13). But through sheer volume, Kent State should run into a few big plays.

On the other side of the ball, Kent State's pass defense is one of the worst in the nation - Toledo should be able to do whatever it wants through the air. Toledo's rushing attack isn't efficient, but it's explosive. And Kent State is regularly shredded for long ground gains (No. 114 rushing explosiveness). Toledo should score often, and quickly.

Toledo is the objectively stronger team - I have preseason tickets on the Rockets going over their win total and winning the MAC - in a hyper-paced game that's heavily skewed towards the pass.

To the point about pace... this is the only game of the week between two teams that both rank in the top-25 in adjusted pace. My system says we're getting over a touchdown of value on the over.

I like the Rockets by double-digits in a shootout.

Pick: Toledo -7.5 | OVER 61.5

North Texas (-6.5) vs. Louisiana Tech
ATL: UNT -8.0

Both of these offenses are uber-explosive, ranking in the top-15 IsoPPP. But North Texas is better equipped to deal with that than Louisiana Tech (No. 64 vs. No. 94 IsoPPP defenses). The efficiency game on each side should battle to a draw.

North Texas' offense is built around putting defenders into conflict, asking them to solve complex problems, and then often forcing them to make tackles one-on-one in space. HC Seth Littrell has a power read and inside-zone read ethos in the run game, and his passing game flowers out from quick-hitters to shot-play leverage beaters.

Disciplined defenses with talent that can tackle can totally derail Littrell's machinations. Defenses that don't keep gap integrity, defenses that get confused on the back-end with bullets flying, and defenses that struggle to tackle in space get mercilessly gouged by it.

You could accurately describe Louisiana Tech's defense as the latter. The Bulldogs' defense ranks No. 118 in rushing success rate, No. 88 in passing explosion, and No. 129 in PFF tackling grade.

North Texas comes in well-rested off a bye. I expect the Mean Green to race by La Tech.

The pick: North Texas -6.5

California at Colorado u48.5
ATT: 41.5

What we have here is a slow-paced game between two bottom-30 SP+ offenses played in altitude. And my system thinks we're getting a touchdown of value on the under.

Colorado's flaccid offense can't move the ball on anyone. In its games against SP+ top-75 defenses (three of them beneath the top-45), Colorado has averaged 11.75 PPG. Cal's defense ranks No. 31 SP+.

Cal should be able to run on Colorado. The Bears rank No. 123 in adjusted pace, ensuring a running clock that'll render the gameclock an upended hourglass.

The pick: UNDER 48.5

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