The Chargers and Bills bring plenty of high-impact playmakers into their Week 3 matchup, creating an appealing selection of passing, receiving and touchdown props. Our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet's four- and five-star picks have delivered +48 units in net profit with a 6.8% ROI across 722 selections. With the tool helping identify the strongest values on Sunday's board, here are our top Chargers vs. Bills player props and bets.
NFL Player Props Rankings & Predictions: Chargers vs. Bills
Here are some of Andrew Erickson’s top picks for Chargers vs. Bills. And check out all of his top picks for NFL Week 3.
Best Bets for Chargers vs. Bills
From our Week 3 Early Lookahead Show: the game total going over was my favorite play in this game by a wide margin - Josh Allen at home off extra rest against a defense I haven’t been impressed by; I’d be shocked if Buffalo scores fewer than 30. They’ve been an essentially lock to go over the 30-mark at home over the last two years, and that shouldn’t change against the Chargers’ defense that has allowed 26 PPG to offenses led by Jacoby Brissett and Kirk Cousins thus far.
I’ve also been betting Buffalo’s team total straight up at home lately rather than messing with the side - they have scored 30+ points in 14 of their last 18 home games (78%).
On the side, if forced to pick, I’d lean Buffalo, but I’m not comfortable betting it outright given how bad both defenses have looked at times. Even so, Justin Herbert’s teams have reportedly not performed well on the East Coast historically - an early-window, West Coast body-clock factor worth weighing for a Chargers team already in a spiral. This team is so banged up all over the place. I could see a scenario where they back-door cover in a similar way to the Bills-Lions game, when Detroit tried to crawl back into the contest.
Ladd McConkey is the engine of this entire Chargers passing attack, and he has been practicing in full this week. As the primary slot receiver…he should FEAST. Per NGS, Dee Alford has served as the Bills’ primary slot defender this season following Taron Johnson’s offseason departure. Alford has logged a team-high 63 snaps as a slot cornerback, including 38 of 52 snaps (73.1%) in nickel personnel and 25 of 26 in dime personnel (96.2%). Overall, he has aligned in the slot on 80.8% of snaps, his highest rate since his 2022 rookie season with the Falcons (81.5%). He has allowed five receptions for 105 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets from the slot, making him one of just two defenders to allow more than 100 yards through two games (Justin Walley, 136 yards).
I’d also note that, given the ineffectiveness of the Chargers’ rushing attack (31st in EPA/rush, 31st in yards before contact per attempt), this seems like a spot where they have to rely on Herbert’s arm to jump-start this offense. Buffalo has been selling out to stop the run under new DC Jim Leonhard. No.1 stuff rate in the NFL. (33%). Both starting RBs they have faced this season have failed to surpass 60 rushing yards despite a combined 36 carries.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Bills’ defense has allowed a league-low 2.6 yards per carry on zone-blocking schemes under Leonhard this season, down from 4.9 yards per carry on those attempts last season (2nd-most), ahead of only the Bengals (5.2). The Bills’ defense has recorded a tackle for a loss or no gain on 14 of 21 instances of contacting the ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage this season (66.7%), the highest rate in the NFL, after doing so on just 36.5% of such instances last season (10th-lowest). Similarly, they have allowed just 2.9 yards after contact per carry after first contacting a ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage, one full yard fewer than their league-high mark of 3.9 last season.
Mike McDaniel is familiar with the Bills’ defensive personnel to a certain extent (having coached against them multiple times per year with Miami), so I think that does favor the Bolts’ overall offensive output.
Regardless, you can easily same-game parlay the Bills’ team total with an alt line (-6.5, -2.5, etc.) to get plus-money payout.
Erickson’s Picks
- Bills’ Team Total over 29.5, Bills -7.5
- Omarion Hampton UNDER 61.5 rushing yards
Best NFL Player Props for Chargers vs. Bills
We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the NFL player prop bet odds from the sportsbooks to give you the best NFL player prop bet picks. View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
Our NFL Player Prop Bet Cheat Sheet assists bettors by comparing lines from leading sportsbooks with our daily NFL projections.
What is an NFL player prop bet?
An NFL player prop bet is a type of wager where you’re betting on the performance of a specific player in a game rather than the overall outcome. For example, you might place a bet on how many passing yards a quarterback will throw for, or how many touchdowns a running back will score. It’s a fun way to get more invested in the action, especially if you’re confident in how a particular player will perform, regardless of who wins or loses the game. It’s like focusing on one slice of the pie instead of the whole thing.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced strategy - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.