The WNBA playoffs get underway today with an exciting four-game slate. We are talking playoffs, of course, which means there are no easy games. That, of course, makes it a little more challenging to find the best WNBA picks of the day.
But I enjoy a good challenge. Here are my top picks for the opening games of the postseason.
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Sunday’s Best WNBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
No. 3 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 6 Indiana Fever
I know what you're thinking: These are the two best offenses in the WNBA. Indiana averaged 96 points per game in the regular season; Las Vegas averaged 91.5. They will definitely go over 192.5 total points.
However, all three regular-season matchups finished under this total. Vegas had only one total this high all season (192.5 vs. Indiana on August 6th), and the final was 86-84. Indiana has been involved in five games that have gone over 190 points. The final scores went over this total in three of those games.
But since the break, the Aces have averaged 100.3 points per game; Indiana 85.5. Las Vegas has allowed 78.8 points per game and Indiana 85.3. Both offenses can score points, but we'll see enough defense to keep them closer to 90 each, keeping the total under 192.5 points.
Pick: Under 192.5 Points (-110)
No. 5 Washington Mystics at No. 4 Atlanta Dream
Atlanta crushed Washington early in the season, 109-77 (June 6th). But the Mystics won the last two, both defensive battles (81-76 on July 2nd; 79-74 on August 7th).
Since the break, both teams have been red hot, each winning their last four. Atlanta averaged 96.8 points and Washington averaged 95.8. Defensively, Atlanta has been the better team since the break (72.3 points allowed per game, compared with Washington’s 79.8).
The Dream crushed their final four opponents, but Washington will put up a better fight. I would not be shocked to see the Mystics win, but I feel confident they will keep it closer than 8.5 points.
Pick: Mystics +8.5 (+100)
No. 7 Dallas Wings at No. 2 Golden State Valkyries
Golden State has had the best defense in the WNBA all season. It showed down the stretch as they allowed just 72 points per game since the break. To be fair, Dallas hasn't been bad on defense either (84.3 points allowed per game), just nowhere near as good as the Valkyries.
On the offensive end, Dallas is definitely the better team, averaging 93.3 points per game since the break, compared to Golden State’s 77.5. The Valkyries have lived and died by the three on offense all season, averaging a league high 10.4 made threes per game and attempts (30.3).
Since the break, Golden State has averaged 8.8 threes and 28 attempts per game. If Dallas can force them to generate similar numbers in this game, they can pull off the upset. Teams have made just 28.3% of three-point attempts versus the Wings since the break.
The Valkyries owned the Wings during the regular season, winning by 11, 18 and 8 points. They averaged 12 made threes per game and shot 37.9%. Golden State will win by at least six points.
Pick: Valkyries -5.5 (-115)
