Best NFL Player Props & Picks: Patriots vs. Bills (Week 4)

The New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills for an AFC East showdown in Week 4, giving bettors plenty to consider across passing, rushing, receiving and touchdown markets. Finding the best Patriots vs. Bills player props and picks starts with evaluating expected workloads, scoring opportunities and how each offense could approach this divisional matchup.

The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet brings a profitable early-season track record into the weekend. Through the first three weeks, its three-, four- and five-star NFL props have generated approximately 95 units of profit with a 5.1% ROI across 1,876 picks. Rushing yards have contributed 25 units of profit, while receptions have added 18.6 units. Below, we use the tool's ratings and matchup analysis to highlight Week 4 NFL player props worth considering before kickoff.

NFL Player Props, Picks & Predictions: Patriots vs. Bills

Here are some of Andrew Erickson’s top picks for Patriots vs. Bills. And check out all of his top picks for NFL Week 4.

Best Bets for Patriots vs. Bills

I picked against the Patriots last week as one of my best bets (one of the few ATS picks I made that actually hit). So taking them with the points isn’t just a homer pick (or not a huge one lol).

Last week’s line for the Buffalo Bills’ home game was Chargers +7.5. You’re telling me that on a neutral field NE-LAC is close to a pick ’em?

I think NE would be favored, with the road divisional underdogs catching a TD-plus at some books. I think there’s value here with this number. Buffalo was lucky to cover last week with all their turnovers.

And the Patriots left SO much production on the table last week.

TLDR verison:

Drake Maye had a rushing TD called back (go back his anytime TD odds at 5-1).
WR Mack Hollins dropped a TD.
Pop Douglas was overthrown for a TD.
Kyle Williams ran out of bounds; it would have been a 50-yd TD.

Per Next Gen Stats:

The Patriots have scored a touchdown on one of their six red zone trips this season (16.7%), the lowest rate in the NFL. New England has called a pass on 86.7% of its red zone plays, the highest rate in the NFL, and has posted a 15.4% success rate on dropbacks inside the red zone, the lowest, after ranking fifth in 2025 (47.3%).

Maye has scrambled past the LOS on 11.9% of his dropbacks from a clean pocket this season, the highest rate among qualified quarterbacks. That’s higher than his 10.2% rate in 2025 (second-highest), and 2.1% higher than his scramble run rate under pressure this season (9.8%). On these scramble runs, he’s gained 58 yards, the third most in the league.

Yup – the bad plays/turnovers were just so bad they definitely have a compounding effect on how the market views New England.

But the Patriots drove into Jaguars territory on seven occasions but failed to score a touchdown on any of those drives.

The Patriots ALSO out-gained Jacksonville by 2 yards despite the 29-point final margin.

Turnovers destroyed them, as they have done all season.

I rewatched the Patriots game from Week 3, and I didn't think Drake Maye played nearly as badly as the real-time social posts made it sound.The few bad plays were really bad. He fumbled on a pump fake and threw 2 interceptions on really bad decisions.But he also just missed on a bunch of TDs.

— Scott Spratt (@scottspratt.bsky.social) 2026-09-29T19:57:28.582Z

The Pats are being undervalued here, especially given how good they have been on the road in the Mike Vrabel era. The Patriots are 9-3 SU (75%), 7-3 ATS on the road since 2025. ATS as road underdog: 5-2 in the last 7 (71.4%). Also 4-0 ATS and 4-0 SU after a loss.

And versus Buffalo…they have had success ATS. Drake Maye is 2-0 ATS (1-1 straight up) despite Buffalo being 9- and 14-point favorites at home the last two seasons. NE has covered in 5 of their last 6 games versus Buffalo. And even though it looks like CB Christian Gonzalez might not play…Bills’ top CB Christian Benford also looks like he might miss this game as well.

Erickson’s Picks

Patriots +7.5
Drake Maye anytime TD (+500)

Best NFL Same Game Parlay for Patriots vs. Bills

Here is our top NFL same game parlay for Patriots vs. Bills. And you can view all of our Week 4 NFL same game parlays.

Leg 1: Mack Hollins 40+ Receiving Yards (-133)
Leg 2: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 2.5 Receptions (-142)
Leg 3: Josh Allen 30+ Rushing Yards (-123)

Buffalo is a touchdown favorite at home with a 48.5 Over/Under. The game script and potentially higher-scoring matchup with New England point to a few notable props to lock in for our parlay. Firstly, the spread and total suggest the Patriots will be trailing and likely throwing more in catch-up mode. So, let's focus on them to start.

The Bills are allowing the second-most receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers this year. The matchup and game flow should feature Mack Hollins in the Patriots' passing game. His 12 receptions, 16 targets, and 156 yards are all team highs. Hollins just totaled 87 yards on six catches last week. He also now has 40+ receiving yards in eight of his last 12 games with New England going back to last season.

Rhamondre Stevenson should also play a key pass-catching role in the Patriots' offense. Buffalo is allowing 6.0 receptions per game to running backs, the second-most in the league. The defense has also given up 3+ catches to an opposing RB in all three games so far. Stevenson, meanwhile, is operating as New England's receiving back on passing downs. He has 3+ receptions in two of three games this year, and in eight of his last 12 games overall for the Pats.

Flipping it over to the Bills, let's back Josh Allen's rushing prop. He's already been an active runner this year, per usual, with 114 rushing yards and six rush TDs. He has at least 22 yards in each game, but could be on the higher side this week. Last year, Allen ran for 53 and 48 yards on 20 combined attempts against a Patriots defense that struggled to contain his legs.

Parlay Odds: +405

Best NFL Player Props for Patriots vs. Bills

We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the NFL player prop bet odds from the sportsbooks to give you the best NFL player prop bet picks. View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.

Our NFL Player Prop Bet Cheat Sheet assists bettors by comparing lines from leading sportsbooks with our daily NFL projections.

What is an NFL player prop bet?

An NFL player prop bet is a type of wager where you’re betting on the performance of a specific player in a game rather than the overall outcome. For example, you might place a bet on how many passing yards a quarterback will throw for, or how many touchdowns a running back will score. It’s a fun way to get more invested in the action, especially if you’re confident in how a particular player will perform, regardless of who wins or loses the game. It’s like focusing on one slice of the pie instead of the whole thing.

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