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Bogman’s Best College Football Bets for Week 5 (2021)

by September 30, 2021
Rose Bowl: College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (Utah vs. Penn State)

Check out my best bets for Week 5 of the college football season!

  • Week 4 Record: 3-7
  • Season Record: 20-19-1

Check out all of our college football game previews and picks of the week >>

Army (-7.5) @ Ball State
This is a pretty simple one. Ball State is ranked 108th in the country against the rush, giving up 189.75 yards per game. Penn State ran for 240 yards, and they aren’t very great running the ball averaging 113.5 yards per game (111th in the nation), Toledo ran for 272 against Ball State (80th), Wyoming went for 177 (49th). Army is 2nd in the nation averaging 344.5 yards per game. The spread is Army by 7.5, this one seems pretty simple, and the public is on it at a 97% bet rate.

Indiana @ Penn State (-12.5)
There’s a reason this spread has been getting bigger after opening at PSU -6.5. I think that Penn State is a bit overrated at #4 in the nation, but Indiana should not be the team to knock them off the pedestal. Michael Penix just does not look like the same guy coming off the knee surgery in the offseason. The Indiana QB has thrown more INTs (6) than TDs (4), and while he’s never been a runner, he was at least good for positive yards in his other three seasons, and he’s at -32 this year through only four games. Couple the bad QB play with a defense that is below average against the run (89th – 135.5 ypg), a pass defense one spot above UConn (73rd), and 93rd in points allowed, I don’t even need to talk up Penn State.

Louisville @ Wake Forest Over 61.5
This should be a VERY high-scoring game! Wake Forest is 20th in the nation averaging 38.8 points per game, and Louisville is 51st at 31.8 PPG. Wake Forest has shown a strong defense so far this year, but they have only really faced one good offense this year in Virginia. While they did hold Virginia to a season-low 17 points, Virginia just couldn’t punch it in, but they did put up 507 yards on Wake Forest. The other offenses they faced were Old Dominion, FCS Norfolk State, and Florida State. Louisville has put up at least 30 on everyone except the Ole Miss defense in Week 1. This will be a battle of great QBs in Sam Hartman of Wake Forest and Malik Cunningham of Louisville, and I don’t care who wins. I just want to see the scoreboard light up!

UCF (-16.5) @ Navy AND over 53.5
It’s never a good time to lose your starting QB, but when Dillion Gabriel went down on the last play against Louisville, the silver lining was that they were coming up on a bye week, New starting QB Mikey Keene probably can’t hold a candle to Gabriel, but he won’t have to against Navy. Navy is one of the worst teams in the country, they are dead last in points per game, averaging 10, and they don’t shine on defense, coming in at 112th giving up 33.3 points per game. Keene will at least be helped by some major talent in RB Isaiah Bowser, WRs Jaylon Robinson and Brandon Johnson, and 4 returning offensive linemen (2 All conference). As far as the over goes, I’m taking it because with this being Keene’s first start, they will probably want to keep him on the field as long as possible to get him as much experience as possible, or they will run a 2nd QB out there to run the offense just to give them another option if they don’t like what they see from Keene.

Other Bets I like:

  • Houston +4.5 @ Tulsa
  • Michigan +2 @ Wisconsin
  • Arkansas @ Georgia – Over 48
  • Texas Tech @ West Virginia – Under 56
  • ULM @ Coastal Carolina – Over 57

Bet $10, Win $150 on any college football game regardless of outcome! >>

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Scott Bogman is a featured writer for BettingPros. For more from Bogman, check out his archive and follow him @BogmanSports.

College Football, Picks