The final month of the MLB season has finally arrived, so if you’ve tuned out during the dog days of summer, it’s time to tune back in as teams are gearing up for the home stretch and push for the playoffs. Fittingly, I have two MLB picks this evening, both involving hopeful playoff teams.
The first game features the Marlins, who are on the outside looking in on the National League Wild Card race but have a golden opportunity with an upcoming series against the struggling Kansas City Royals.
The second game is between two American League divisional leaders, with the White Sox taking on the Astros in a crucial series as both teams look to extend their narrow division leads. I’ve got plays on the full-game Moneyline for each; keep reading to see how I think each team’s playoff chances will be impacted.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals
The Marlins still have an outside shot at a Wild Card spot, but they’re going to need to catch fire down the stretch. That has to start tonight in Kansas City against a Royals squad that has underwhelmed all season long.
They’re sending out Tyler Phillips this evening, whose 3-6 record is not exactly indicative of his 3.59 ERA. Per Statcast, he has some of the nastiest stuff in the Majors, with a breaking ball and offspeed pitch that both grade above the 90th percentile in run value. Phillips generates chases at a top-third rate in the league, and his groundball rate sits above the 70th percentile at 46.4%.
The Royals will counter with Randy Dobnak, whose 1.92 ERA is absolutely not reflective of the pitcher he has been this season. To start, how he maintains a 1.92 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP is beyond my understanding. His xERA tells the same story, as it is a full 2.5 runs higher at 4.56 and ranks in the 27th percentile. His xBA is approaching 0.300 and ranks in the fourth percentile.
Dobnak has a below-average hard-hit rate and a bottom-quartile average exit velocity. And he doesn’t miss bats, with a whiff rate and strikeout rate that each rank in the bottom 10th percentile of pitchers.
As a whole, the Marlins’ offense gets on base at a much higher frequency than the Royals. The Marlins rank sixth in on-base percentage (OBP), whereas the Royals rank outside the top half. The Marlins also rank in the top half in OPS, and the Royals again rank outside the top half despite a higher slugging rate. The Marlins also have the second-most stolen bases in the Majors and have scored more runs than the Royals.
When it comes to bullpens, Kansas City arguably has the worst in the sport. Their 5.05 ERA ranks second-worst, behind only the Athletics. Their 1.51 WHIP is the highest of any team. And their 400 total strikeouts are the fewest of any bullpen unit. Compare that to the Marlins, whose ERA is a full run lower at 4.01, whose WHIP is a quarter point lower at 1.25 and who have 100+ more strikeouts (506).
While the Marlins don’t have an MVP-caliber player like the Royals do in Bobby Witt Jr., I do give them a fairly decisive advantage in every other aspect, and I’m shocked to see this line where it is. Dobnak should come back to Earth against a team that loves to get on base and put pressure on opposing pitchers. I like the Marlins to pick up a much-needed victory this evening.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline (+105 @ Caesars Sportsbook)
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros
The White Sox could also use a win, sitting just three games ahead of Cleveland in the race for the American League Central. They turn to Sean Burke, who has surpassed Davis Martin as their ace down the stretch.
Burke has one of the better fastballs in the game, with a 96th percentile run value, which contributes to his overall pitching run value, which ranks in the top quartile of all pitchers. His xERA and xBA both rank among the top third of pitchers. He’s maintained that by generating a decent amount of swings and misses on the season, evident by his top-third chase rate and top-quartile strikeout rate.
The Astros will counter with Ronel Blanco, who has been objectively horrible in his five appearances this season. His ERA is 7.71, with a ridiculously inflated WHIP of 1.46. He has given up three or more earned runs in all of his appearances this season, including an outing against these same White Sox.
In that game, Blanco surrendered five earned runs in just 5.1 innings, while also walking three batters and striking out only four. While he doesn’t have the sample size to qualify to be ranked among the other pitchers in baseball, nearly every single one of his underlying metrics except for whiff rate and hard-hit rate (barely) would rank below league average.
Offensively, these teams are incredibly similar in batting average, OPS,and slugging rate, but the Sox boast a top-10 unit in OBP, whereas the Astros rank outside the top half of the league. The White Sox rank in the top 10 in walks and have more stolen bases this season; the Astros rank second-worst in that category. The White Sox also have more doubles, more runs and just two fewer home runs, despite the MVP season being put up by Yordan Alvarez.
Initially, I was leaning toward a first five innings play, but the White Sox also have a better bullpen. Chicago has the seventh-lowest bullpen ERA (3.73), while the Astros rank outside the top half (4.03). The White Sox also have more strikeouts as a unit and have allowed fewer home runs.
If you’d rather leave the bullpens out of it and just stick to the decisive starting pitching advantage with a first five innings play, I absolutely don’t mind that; you’ll just be paying for it with some heavier juice. Overall, though, I give the White Sox the advantage in every aspect of this game. They should pick up a big win tonight in Houston.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline (-112 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
