Last week was a bust, as none of my three picks left the yard. However, it is a new month and a new beginning. And several matchups on Tuesday's board can prove favorable in the home run betting landscape. With that in mind, here are my three favorite MLB Home Run Picks for Tuesday, September 1.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(All bets are one unit, unless otherwise stated)
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+280 at TheScoreBet)
For my first home run bet of the night, I am taking Fernando Tatis Jr. of the San Diego Padres. Tatis has found his power stroke in recent weeks after what seemed like an endless home run drought to start the season. He has 12 home runs since the All-Star Break, including nine in August. I like him to start September off with a bang against Nick Lodolo and the Cincinnati Reds.
Lodolo has allowed 15 home runs in 16 starts this season and has struggled of late. He has given up seven homers in his last five starts and has not made it past the fifth inning in any of them. Of the 15 big flies that Lodolo has served up, 13 have come off the bats of right-handed hitters. Tatis has hit lefties well all year long. He is slugging .573 against them and has success against Lodolo's arsenal of pitches.
Tatis is slugging .598 with five home runs in 92 plate appearances this year against the four pitches he will face from Lodolo on Tuesday. Most of that damage has been done recently. Four of those five homers have come in the last four weeks, in just 38 plate appearances.
Cincinnati's bullpen is not one to fear if Lodolo can escape the wrath of Tatis. Reds relievers rank in the bottom four over the last two weeks in home run rate, ERA, and all earned run indicators.
Playing in Cincinnati should only enhance the chances Tatis takes one out on Tuesday. Per Baseball Savant's Expected Home Runs by Park tool, Tatis would have 24 home runs this season if all his plate appearances had occurred at Great American Ballpark. That is more than a 40 percent increase over his current season-long home run total of 17. Given these factors, I like Tatis to get our Dinger Tuesday off to a good start.
Junior Caminero (+250 at FanDuel)
Junior Caminero carries a 14-game hitting streak into Tuesday's matchup with Sean Manaea and the New York Mets. More importantly, Caminero has homered in two of three games after going over two weeks without a homer. I expect the Rays third baseman to go deep again in this matchup.
Manaea throws either a four-seam fastball, sweeper, or sinker over 90 percent of the time when he faces a right-handed hitter. Caminero is slugging .705 with five home runs in 75 plate appearances against those three offerings from left-handed hurlers.
The veteran lefty has been more susceptible to ceding gopher balls away from Citi Field. Manaea has given up eight home runs in his last five road starts. Overall, right-handed hitters are slugging .529 this year against Manaea.
Tropicana Field has surprisingly been extremely homer-friendly this year for righties. It has a 139 park factor for right-handed home runs this season. That is the highest number in the Major Leagues. Caminero has crushed 20 balls out of the yard at Tropicana, and I am betting on number 21 coming on Tuesday night.
Jordan Walker (+403 at DraftKings)
I always preach the importance of price shopping, and my last home run bet for Tuesday is a perfect example. I bet Jordan Walker at +403 to hit a home run on DraftKings. He is +300 or lower on every other major sportsbook, including +250 on FanDuel as of this writing.
I always size my home run bets so that I, at worst, break even if one player hits. The difference between betting a player at +250 versus betting a player at +403 is huge. For example, let's say our unit size is $100. I can bet $20 on Walker to hit a home run on DraftKings, with a total payout of $100.60. To have a payout of that size on FanDuel, I would have to risk $28.75. These are the small edges that keep our options open to take risks elsewhere. I can now take that $8.75 I saved and throw it on a boosted Dinger Tuesday on a parlay. The payout (even with Walker's reduced base price) is nearly $600, and I have not put any additional money on the table.
None of this is to say that I would not bet on Walker elsewhere if and when DraftKings reduces their price to match the other books. This year's Home Run Derby Champion has an outstanding matchup on Tuesday against left-handed starter Eric Lauer of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
It's hard to say exactly how long Lauer will go in this game. He pitched out of the bullpen in his last outing and only went two innings. However, he has thrown at least 84 pitches in 11 of his other 12 games with Los Angeles, including 10 of 11 starts. I am counting on at least two plate appearances from Walker against Lauer, which may be all that we need to cash this bet.
Lauer has allowed the fourth-highest home run rate among 110 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings this year. Two of the three pitchers above Lauer on this list are currently free agents looking for work. Lauer has allowed at least one long ball in nine of 11 starts since arriving in Los Angeles. And his pitch mix plays right into Walker's hands.
Lauer features a four-seam fastball, cutter, changeup, and curveball to right-handed batters. Walker has eight home runs and 11 near home runs in just 92 plate appearances this season against left-handers on those four pitches. He homered against Lauer in their only meeting back in 2023, when Walker was still very much a work in progress. Walker's 13.5 percent barrel rate in 2026 is nearly double his 2023 rate of 7.5 percent.
Hitting conditions should be favorable in Los Angeles, and Dodger Stadium suits Walker quite well. Walker has 33 expected home runs in Dodger Stadium this season. That is the highest number out of all 30 Major League parks.
