All 30 MLB teams are in play today across 15 contests, with games beginning at 6:40 p.m. ET. There are ample contests to pick from for the best MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks or MLB yes runs first inning (YRFI) picks.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
San Francisco Giants (+135) at Pittsburgh Pirates (-163) | O/U 7.5 (-102/-118)
Starting Pitchers: Logan Webb vs. Paul Skenes
Logan Webb versus Paul Skenes would have been a more exciting pitching matchup in previous years. Still, the game’s total is a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs, and both hurlers are in decent form.
According to FanGraphs, Webb has logged the following numbers in his previous five starts spanning 28.2 innings:
- 2.83 ERA
- 3.77 xERA
- 3.96 xFIP
- 3.85 SIERA
- 1.05 WHIP
- 5.1% walk rate
- 21.4% strikeout rate
- 7.7% SwStr%
- 27.3% CSW%
- 97 stuff+
- 105 location+
- 102 pitching+
Meanwhile, Skenes has amassed the following marks in his last four starts, totaling 20.1 innings:
- 3.10 ERA
- 4.52 xERA
- 4.24 xFIP
- 4.38 SIERA
- 1.13 WHIP
- 11% walk rate
- 23.2% strikeout rate
- 11.7% SwStr%
- 24.5% CSW%
- 99 stuff+
- 103 location+
- 103 pitching+
Both pitchers have notably outkicked their ERA estimators. Regardless, they’ve been solid if unspectacular.
Skenes should benefit from pitching at home, though. In 14 home starts spanning 77.2 innings, Skenes owns a 3.59 ERA, 2.82 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, 6.3% walk rate and 33% strikeout rate.
In addition, he’s gotten off to good starts in games. He has a 3.03 ERA and 3.20 xFIP in his first time through the order this season and a 1.60 ERA and 2.66 xFIP in his first time through the order in his career. Skenes has also compiled a 20-7 NRFI-YRFI record this year, going 11-3 in 14 home starts, 8-2 in his last 10 starts and reeling off four straight NRFI.
Webb has also done well early in games. He has a 3.81 ERA and 3.17 xFIP in his first time through the order this year. San Francisco’s top hurler has a 19-4 NRFI-YRFI record this year, stringing together six straight NRFI and going 9-2 in 11 starts on the road. The NRFI line is chalky, but it’s still an appealing wager.
Pick: NRFI (-145)
Philadelphia Phillies (-142) at Arizona Diamondbacks (+118) | O/U 7.5 (-113/-106)
Starting Pitchers: Jesus Luzardo vs. Eduardo Rodriguez
Jesus Luzardo and Eduardo Rodriguez are dialed in. The former has recorded the following numbers in his previous five starts spanning 34.1 innings:
- 1.31 ERA
- 2.40 xERA
- 2.72 xFIP
- 2.66 SIERA
- 0.87 WHIP
- 6.8% walk rate
- 34.6% strikeout rate
- 14.2% SwStr%
- 33.2% CSW%
- 108 stuff+
- 102 location+
- 107 pitching+
The latter has logged the following statistics in his last five starts, totaling 31.1 innings:
- 2.59 ERA
- 3.08 xERA
- 3.45 xFIP
- 3.62 SIERA
- 1.09 WHIP
- 5.5% walk rate
- 24.2% strikeout rate
- 11.6% SwStr%
- 26.2% CSW%
- 95 stuff+
- 114 location+
- 107 pitching+
The location of the contest is favorable for the pitchers, as Luzardo has been better on the road, while Rodriguez has been better at home. In 14 road starts spanning 85.1 innings, Luzardo has ripped off a 1.79 ERA, 2.85 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 8.3% walk rate and 31.3% strikeout rate. Conversely, in 15 home starts, totaling 94.2 innings, Rodriguez has amassed a 2.47 ERA, 3.95 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 6.6% walk rate and 18% strikeout rate.
The southpaws have cooked with gas early in games. Luzardo has a 0.84 ERA, 2.20 xFIP, 0.76 WHIP, 4.9% walk rate and 34.6% strikeout rate in his first time through the order this year, and Rodriguez has a 2.87 ERA, 4.34 xFIP, 1.19 WHIP, 7.8% walk rate and 18.9% strikeout rate in his first time through the order in 2026.
Luzardo has been unreal in the first inning. He has a 25-2 NRFI-YRFI record, going 9-1 in his last 10 and 14-0 on the road. Rodriguez hasn’t been nearly as impressive. Nevertheless, his NRFI-YRFI record is 17-10 in 27 starts. He has spun back-to-back scoreless first innings, gone 7-3 in his last 10 starts and 11-4 at home. Luzardo and Rodriguez should combine for a scoreless first inning tonight.
Pick: NRFI (-130)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.