March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market. Be sure to join our free Bracket Contest. Prizes up for grabs include a lifetime BettingPros/FantasyPros subscription and a signed Giannis Antetokounmpo jersey!
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
Use our FREE bracket optimizer to build a winning men’s NCAA tournament bracket & take down your contest >>
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market. Be sure to join our free Bracket Contest. Prizes up for grabs include a lifetime BettingPros/FantasyPros subscription and a signed Giannis Antetokounmpo jersey!
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
Use our FREE bracket optimizer to build a winning men’s NCAA tournament bracket & take down your contest >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Boise State vs. Northwestern
Boise State Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Tyson Degenhart |
12.8 |
6.1 |
1.8 |
19.0 |
14.6 |
20.7 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
| Max Rice |
12.4 |
5.2 |
1.7 |
17.7 |
14.2 |
19.4 |
2.3 |
1.7 |
| Chibuzo Agbo |
11.0 |
5.7 |
0.9 |
16.7 |
11.9 |
17.6 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
| Marcus Shaver |
11.6 |
6.7 |
3.7 |
18.2 |
15.2 |
21.9 |
1.0 |
3.3 |
| Naje Smith |
9.5 |
6.6 |
1.3 |
16.1 |
10.8 |
17.4 |
0.8 |
1.8 |
| Jace Whiting |
2.9 |
2.1 |
1.4 |
5.0 |
4.3 |
6.4 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
| Lukas Milner |
2.7 |
3.1 |
0.4 |
5.9 |
3.1 |
6.3 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
| Pavle Kuzmanovic |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kobe Young |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Sadraque Nganga |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Mohamed Sylla |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Burke Smith |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Sam Winter |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Northwestern Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Boo Buie |
16.6 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
20.1 |
20.6 |
24.1 |
1.7 |
3.2 |
| Chase Audige |
14.0 |
3.7 |
2.6 |
17.6 |
16.5 |
20.2 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
| Ty Berry |
8.8 |
5.3 |
1.1 |
14.1 |
9.9 |
15.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
| Robbie Beran |
6.0 |
3.9 |
0.5 |
9.9 |
6.5 |
10.4 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
| Brooks Barnhizer |
9.1 |
6.2 |
1.2 |
15.3 |
10.2 |
16.5 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
| Matthew Nicholson |
5.4 |
5.3 |
1.1 |
10.7 |
6.5 |
11.8 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
| Tydus Verhoeven |
1.9 |
2.2 |
0.5 |
4.2 |
2.4 |
4.7 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
| Julian Roper II |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Nick Martinelli |
2.7 |
1.6 |
0.3 |
4.3 |
3.0 |
4.6 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
| Luke Hunger |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Roy Dixon |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Blake Smith |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Boise State vs. Northwestern Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Boise State
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Chibuzo Agbo Over 4.5 Rebounds |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
MGM |
| Tyson Degenhart Over 1.5 Assists |
135 |
1 |
1.35 |
DK |
| Tyson Degenhart Over 5.5 Rebounds |
122 |
1 |
1.22 |
FD |
| Max Rice Over 4.5 Rebounds |
110 |
1 |
1.1 |
DK |
| Marcus Shaver Under 13.5 Points |
-125 |
1.25 |
1 |
MGM |
Northwestern
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Robbie Beran Under 5.5 Rebounds |
120 |
1 |
1.2 |
FD |
| Boo Buie Under 19.5 Points |
-122 |
1.22 |
1 |
UB |
| Chase Audige Over 11.5 Points |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
MGM |
Win Prizes in our FREE Bracket Contest >>
More Round 1 Player Prop Bet Picks
Round 1 Betting Picks & Predictions
South
East
West
Midwest
NCAA Tournament Same Game Parlay Picks
Check out all of our coverage for the 2023 NCAA Tournament >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
