March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market. Be sure to join our free Bracket Contest. Prizes up for grabs include a lifetime BettingPros/FantasyPros subscription and a signed Giannis Antetokounmpo jersey!
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
Use our FREE bracket optimizer to build a winning men’s NCAA tournament bracket & take down your contest >>
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market. Be sure to join our free Bracket Contest. Prizes up for grabs include a lifetime BettingPros/FantasyPros subscription and a signed Giannis Antetokounmpo jersey!
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
Use our FREE bracket optimizer to build a winning men’s NCAA tournament bracket & take down your contest >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Colgate vs. Texas
Colgate Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Tucker Richardson |
13.3 |
6.6 |
4.8 |
19.9 |
18.1 |
24.7 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
| Keegan Records |
12.7 |
7.7 |
1.1 |
20.4 |
13.8 |
21.5 |
0.1 |
2.2 |
| Braeden Smith |
11.4 |
4.9 |
3.8 |
16.3 |
15.2 |
20.1 |
0.9 |
3.3 |
| Oliver Lynch-Daniels |
11.7 |
4.4 |
1.8 |
16.2 |
13.5 |
18.0 |
2.2 |
0.7 |
| Ryan Moffatt |
9.1 |
4.7 |
1.4 |
13.8 |
10.4 |
15.2 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
| Jeff Woodward |
4.9 |
4.2 |
1.4 |
9.2 |
6.3 |
10.6 |
0.0 |
1.4 |
| Chandler Baker |
4.8 |
1.5 |
0.2 |
6.3 |
5.1 |
6.6 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
| Sam Thomson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Nicolas Louis-Jacques |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
| Alex Capitano |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Brady Cummins |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Malcolm Bailey |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Texas Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Marcus Carr |
18.3 |
3.4 |
5.3 |
21.7 |
23.6 |
27.0 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
| Sir’Jabari Rice |
17.0 |
4.8 |
3.2 |
21.7 |
20.1 |
24.9 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
| Tyrese Hunter |
10.7 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
13.7 |
13.7 |
16.7 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
| Timmy Allen |
9.3 |
4.8 |
3.5 |
14.1 |
12.8 |
17.6 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
| Dylan Disu |
8.5 |
4.2 |
1.2 |
12.7 |
9.7 |
13.9 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
| Christian Bishop |
6.2 |
3.5 |
1.0 |
9.7 |
7.2 |
10.7 |
0.0 |
0.8 |
| Arterio Morris |
3.8 |
1.1 |
0.5 |
5.0 |
4.3 |
5.4 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
| Brock Cunningham |
4.7 |
3.3 |
1.5 |
8.0 |
6.2 |
9.5 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
| Dillon Mitchell |
3.4 |
3.0 |
0.3 |
6.5 |
3.8 |
6.8 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
| Alex Anamekwe |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cole Bott |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Gavin Perryman |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Colgate vs. Texas Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Colgate
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Braeden Smith Over 18.5 PRAs |
100 |
1 |
1 |
DK |
| Oliver Lynch-Daniels Over 1.5 3Ps |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
MGM |
| Braeden Smith Over 10.5 Points |
110 |
1 |
1.1 |
DK |
| Ryan Moffatt Under 11.5 Points |
-130 |
1.3 |
1 |
FD |
Texas
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Timmy Allen Under 7.5 Rebounds |
-121 |
1.21 |
1 |
UB |
| Dylan Disu Under 5.5 Rebounds |
116 |
1 |
1.16 |
FD |
| Dylan Disu Under 18.5 PRAs |
-105 |
1.05 |
1 |
DK |
| Sir’Jabari Rice Over 1.5 Assists |
-125 |
1.25 |
1 |
DK |
| Marcus Carr Over 15.5 Points |
-118 |
1.18 |
1 |
UB |
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More Round 1 Player Prop Bet Picks
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