It is the last weekend of the college basketball regular season, and it feels appropriate to focus on games that could impact whether a team makes the March Madness field this year. So, that is where today's College Basketball Best Bets will come from, the bubble watch.
With that in mind, let's take a look at a game featuring a pair of teams from the A-10 that are playing well and another from the Mountain West.
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Friday’s Best College Basketball Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
VCU Rams vs. Dayton Flyers
THE A-10 will often send 2-3 teams to the Tournament, and with five teams with 20 regular-season wins, I'm going to say this could be one of those years. The Saint Louis Billikens are firmly on the "should" list, leaving VCU, Saint Joseph's, Dayton, and George Mason fighting over the other two.
VCU comes into this game having won 12 of its last 13 games, with the loss coming against Saint Louis on Feb. 20. Dayton comes in on a six-game winning streak that included a victory over Saint Louis, the only conference loss Saint Louis has had this season.
When these two teams met on Feb. 6, the Rams took care of business at home, beating the Flyers easily, 99-73. VCU nearly doubled Dayton up in the first half, outscoring the Flyers 50-27, but the second half was much more competitive (49-46, VCU).
This game really wasn't close a few weeks ago. However, Dayton has been a great home team this season (14-2), and I expect them to seek retribution after such a lackluster performance the first time around. Like that earlier game, VCU will undoubtedly let it fly from three-point range.
I'm a little surprised the TOTAL shifted down since the line opened at 149.5. However, this should be a close (high-scoring) game, which makes the spread and moneyline unappealing.
Pick: Over 147.5 Total Points (-108)
UNLV Rebels vs. San Diego State Aztecs
The Mountain West has gotten anywhere from 2-6 teams into the March Madness field in recent years. Utah State looks likely with a 24-6 record, with New Mexico (22-8), Colorado State (20-10), and four teams with 19 wins (including San Diego State) squarely on the "maybe/bubble watch" list.
San Diego State should win this game. They have a more talented, deeper roster than the Rebels and have been solid on both ends of the court this season (No. 100 in the country on offense and No. 108 on defense). UNLV has a better offense (No. 88) but has struggled on the defensive end (No. 311).
However, coming into this game, UNLV has won six of its last eight. San Diego State has lost four of its last five, but they did beat the Rebels in Vegas, 82-71.
I waffled between taking the OVER instead of UNLV and the points. However, with how competitive the first game was and how the Aztecs have been playing of late, it is unlikely Dayton wins this game by 10+.
Pick: UNLV +10.5 (-115)
