College Football PrizePicks Week 10 Player Predictions (2023)

This is one of my favorite articles to write because the angle we attack is extremely simple: We take opposing quarterbacks within the same game. Each quarterback can drive the other, especially if the game is competitive and of a back-and-forth nature. By correlating quarterbacks within the same game, we have to get less right in our picks.

Let's dive into our favorite PrizePicks player predictions for Week 10 of the College Football season.

Check out our NFL PrizePicks Predictions Cheat Sheet >>

Let's dive into our favorite PrizePicks player predictions for Week 10 of the College Football season.

Check out our NFL PrizePicks Predictions Cheat Sheet >>

College Football PrizePicks Week 10 Player Predictions

Glossary

Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average pass rate is 40%)
Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average pass rate is 60%)
PROE: Pass Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected pass rate in situations)
EPA/Pass Att: Expected points added per pass attempt
IsoPPP: Explosive plays

Michael Penix Jr. (QB – Washington) over 372.5 Passing Yards

Washington +21.5% PROE on Standard Downs (1st)
Washington +18.8% PROE on Passing Downs (2nd)
USC 124th in Overall Def IsoPPP
USC 81st in Def Standard Downs Success Rate
USC 121st in Def Standard Downs IsoPPP
USC 80th in Def Passing Downs Success Rate
USC 105th in Def Passing Downs IsoPPP
USC 118th in Def EPA/Pass Att on Standard Downs
USC 26th in Def EPA/Pass Att on Passing Downs

Caleb Williams (QB – USC) over 318.5 Passing Yards

USC +10% in PROE on Standard Downs (17th)
USC +6.4% in PROE on Passing Downs (37th)
Washington 14th in Overall Def IsoPPP
Washington 65th in Def Standard Downs Success Rate
Washington 71st in Def Standard Downs IsoPPP
Washington 87th in Def Passing Downs Success Rate
Washington 1st in Def Passing Downs IsoPPP
Washington 19th in EPA/Pass Att on Standard Downs
Washington 32nd in EPA/Pass Att on Passing Downs

These are extremely high passing yard totals, but in reality, they might not be high enough. Penix is going to have ample opportunity to crush this number, he will have an elevated amount of passing attempts and should be able to have numerous chunk plays against this porous USC defense. Williams will have a tougher matchup, but it is only by comparison. The game environment is set for a shoot-out in the 40s and if that happens these totals will soar over.

Shedeur Sanders (QB – Colorado) over 302.5 Passing Yards

Colorado +14.8% in PROE on Standard Downs (8th)
Colorado +9.1% in PROE on Passing Downs (25th)
Oregon State 31st in Overall Def IsoPPP
Oregon State 74th in Def Standard Downs Success Rate
Oregon State 42nd in Def Standard Downs IsoPPP
Oregon State 100th in Def Passing Downs Success Rate
Oregon State 31st in Def Passing Downs IsoPPP
Oregon State 14th in EPA/Pass Att on Standard Downs
Oregon State 52nd in EPA/Pass Att on Passing Downs

DJ Uiagalelei (QB – Oregon State) over 260.5 Passing Yards

Oregon State -4.1% in PROE on Standard Downs (100th)
Oregon State +6.3% in PROE on Passing Downs (38th)
Colorado 99th in Overall Def IsoPPP
Colorado 112th in Standard Downs Success Rate
Colorado 74th in Standard Downs IsoPPP
Colorado 127th in Passing Downs Success Rate
Colorado 90th in Passing Downs IsoPPP

We are back at it with another Pac-12 over. Sanders has a pretty lofty passing yard total but he should get there on volume as Oregon State is below-average in numerous defensive categories. This should also be an infinitely easier matchup than the bloodbath that was UCLA last weekend. DJ plays an abysmal Colorado defense, he simply will need 28 to 30 Passing Attempts and he should crush his moderate total.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!