College Football PrizePicks Week 5 Player Predictions (2023)

We had an extremely rough weekend and missed all four predictions. The Oregon game was over in the second quarter, Notre Dame would not take the training wheels off of Sam Hartman, Arkansas got into a shootout with LSU, and Maryland took their foot off the gas earlier than expected. This week, we will approach the picks in a correlated way. We will be taking opposing Quarterbacks in games, hoping that both will push each other toward their respective overs. Let’s dive in!!!

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College Football PrizePicks Week 5 Player Predictions

Glossary:

Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average pass rate is 40%)
Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average pass rate is 60%)
PROE: Pass Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected pass rate in situations)
EPA/Pass Att: Expected points added per pass attempt
IsoPPP: Explosive plays

Caleb Williams (QB- USC) Over 353.50 Passing Yards

Colorado Overall Def IsoPPP 71st
Colorado Standard Downs Success Rate 123rd
Colorado Def IsoPPP on Standard Downs 27th
Colorado Passing Downs Success Rate 126th

Shedeur Sanders (QB- Colorado) Over 307.50 Passing Yards

USC Overall Def IsoPPP 128th
USC Standard Downs Success Rate 12th
USC Def IsoPPP on Standard Downs 115th
USC Passing Downs Success Rate 92nd

As you can see, both defenses are pretty suspect in allowing explosive plays. The key here is USC is horrendous as a defense in Passing Downs situations. This is essentially where Colorado thrives, and they are constantly in Passing Downs because they are abysmal at running the ball. A shootout is definitely in the range of outcomes, as both offenses match up well against the opposing defenses. Quarterbacks in the same game have a built-in correlation because they will play in the same game script. On top of that, both Quarterbacks are their team’s best players and will be used accordingly.

Jayden Daniels (QB- LSU) Over 281.50 Passing Yards

Ole Miss Overall Def IsoPPP 30th
Ole Miss Standard Downs Success Rate 78th
Ole Miss Def IsoPPP on Standard Downs 48th
Ole Miss Passing Downs Success Rate 36th

Jaxson Dart (QB- Ole Miss) Over 260.50 Passing Yards

LSU OverallDef IsoPPP 109th
LSU Standard Downs Success Rate 75th
LSU Def IsoPPP on Standard Downs 38th
LSU Passing Downs Success Rate 125th

Neither of these defenses is elite at limiting explosive plays or excels from a success rate perspective. I believe a back-and-forth game script can easily inflate these passing totals. Both teams play at an above-average pace, with Ole Miss ranking a torrid 5th in plays/second. If LSU is pushed like last week vs. Arkansas, this game could get out of hand quickly.

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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