College Football PrizePicks Week 6 Player Predictions (2023)

What an incredible last weekend! We smashed on four correlated plays that were never in doubt. Ole Miss vs. LSU and Colorado vs. USC put up video game-type numbers.

We will use the same strategy again and correlate quarterbacks in two games. By doing this, we have to get less right in our picks. Let’s dive into our favorite PrizePicks player predictions for Week 6 of the College Football season:

Check out our NFL PrizePicks Predictions Cheat Sheet >>

What an incredible last weekend! We smashed on four correlated plays that were never in doubt. Ole Miss vs. LSU and Colorado vs. USC put up video game-type numbers.

Check out our NFL PrizePicks Predictions Cheat Sheet >>

College Football PrizePicks Week 6 Player Predictions

Glossary:

Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average pass rate is 40%)
Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average pass rate is 60%)
PROE: Pass Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected pass rate in situations)
EPA/Pass Att: Expected points added per pass attempt
IsoPPP: Explosive plays

Will Howard (QB – Kansas State) Over 249.5 Passing Yards

Kansas State +13.9% PROE on Standard Downs (15th)
Kansas State -6.67% PROE on Passing Downs (107th)
Oklahoma State Overall Def IsoPPP 122nd
Oklahoma State Def Standard Downs Success Rate 24th
Oklahoma State Def Standard Downs IsoPPP 109th
Oklahoma State Def Passing Downs Success Rate 75th
Oklahoma State Def Passing Downs IsoPPP 109th

Alan Bowman (QB – Oklahoma State) Over 227.5 Passing Yards

Oklahoma State +10.6% PROE on Standard Downs (18th)
Oklahoma State +9.1% PROE on Passing Downs (29th)
Kansas State Overall Def IsoPPP 123rd
Kansas State Def Standard Downs Success Rate 21st
Kansas State Def Standard Downs IsoPPP 105th
Kansas State Def Passing Downs Success Rate 51st
Kansas State Def Passing Downs IsoPPP 75th

This game is a perfect storm for these two quarterbacks to go over their passing totals. Both defenses are atrocious at defending explosive plays and are below average from a success rate on passing downs. Another key factor is on Standard Downs, both Kansas State and Oklahoma State want to throw the ball. This game can easily go off the rails and become a massive shootout. I easily see this matchup getting into the lower 70s, total-wise.

Shedeur Sanders (QB – Colorado) Over 359.5 Passing Yards

Colorado +15.6% PROE on Standard Downs (12th)
Colorado +5.6% PROE on Passing Downs (42nd)
Arizona State Overall Def IsoPPP 18th
Arizona State Def Standard Downs Success Rate 100th
Arizona State Def Standard Downs IsoPPP 62nd
Arizona State Def Passing Downs Success Rate 41st
Arizona State Def Passing Downs IsoPPP 8th

Trenton Bourguet (QB – Arizona State) Over 262.5 Passing Yards

Arizona State +4.8% PROE on Standard Downs (41st)
Arizona State +10.1% PROE on Passing Downs (20th)
Colorado Overall Def IsoPPP 92nd
Colorado Def Standard Downs Success Rate 115th
Colorado Def Standard Downs IsoPPP 63rd
Colorado Def Passing Downs Success Rate 128th
Colorado Def Passing Downs IsoPPP 101st

We have Shedeur Sanders on our list again, and for good reason. Arizona State doesn’t give up a ton of explosive plays, but they are pretty horrendous in Success Rate on Standard Downs. Being that Colorado has one of the highest PROE on both Standard and Passing Downs, there should be a ton of volume. On the opposite side, Colorado is arguably one of the bottom-10 secondaries in the country. Arizona State has a respectable PROE on both Standard and Passing downs. Bourguet should be able to have several big splash plays and soar over his passing total.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!