College Football PrizePicks Week 8 Player Predictions (2023)

This is one of my favorite articles to write because the angle we attack is extremely simple: We take opposing quarterbacks within the same game. Each quarterback can drive the other, especially if the game is competitive and of a back-and-forth nature. By correlating quarterbacks within the same game, we have to get less right in our picks.

Let’s dive into our favorite PrizePicks player predictions for Week 8 of the College Football season:

Check out our NFL PrizePicks Predictions Cheat Sheet >>

Let’s dive into our favorite PrizePicks player predictions for Week 8 of the College Football season:

Check out our NFL PrizePicks Predictions Cheat Sheet >>

College Football PrizePicks Week 8 Player Predictions

Glossary:

Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average pass rate is 40%)
Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average pass rate is 60%)
PROE: Pass Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected pass rate in situations)
EPA/Pass Att: Expected points added per pass attempt
IsoPPP: Explosive plays

Bo Nix (QB – Oregon) Over 295.5 Passing Yards

Oregon +15.1% PROE on Standard Downs (6th)
Oregon -3.5% PROE on Passing Downs (92nd)
Oregon Pace 55th
Washington State Overall Def IsoPPP 75th
Washington State Def Standard Downs Success Rate 60th
Washington State Def Standard Downs IsoPPP 83rd
Washington State Def Passing Downs Success Rate 32nd
Washington State Def Passing Downs IsoPPP 74th
Washington State Def Standard Downs EPA/Pass Att 64th
Washington State Def Passing Downs EPA/Pass Att 10th

Cameron Ward (QB – Washington State) Over 248.5 Passing Yards

Washington State +17.5% PROE on Standard Downs (6th)
Washington State +11.4% PROE on Passing Downs (16th)
Washington State Pace 29th
Oregon Overall Def IsoPPP 61st
Oregon Def Standard Downs Success Rate 35th
Oregon Def Standard Downs IsoPPP 84th
Oregon Def Passing Downs Success Rate 59th
Oregon Def Passing Downs IsoPPP 40th
Oregon Def Standard Downs EPA/Pass Att 24th
Oregon Def Passing Downs EPA/Pass Att 28th

The angle for the over here is pretty straightforward: Both teams play at a solid pace and have above-average PROE profiles. Also, neither squad is elite in pass defense. Oregon is solid, but they are not in the upper echelon of defenses. The pace of play and the sheer volume of these passing attacks should drive these totals to the over.

Michael Penix Jr. (QB – Washington) Over 360.5 Passing Yards

Washington +21.3% PROE on Standard Downs (2nd)
Washington +21.8% PROE on Passing Downs (3rd)
Washington Pace 92nd
Arizona State Overall Def IsoPPP 8th
Arizona State Def Standard Downs Success Rate 104th
Arizona State Def Standard Downs IsoPPP 45th
Arizona State Def Passing Downs Success Rate 26th
Arizona State Def Passing Downs IsoPPP 13th
Arizona State Def Standard Downs EPA/Pass Att 69th
Arizona State Def Passing Downs EPA/Pass Att 59th

Trenton Bourguet (QB – Arizona State) Over 275.5 Passing Yards

Arizona State +4.8% PROE on Standard Downs (36th)
Arizona State +12.2% PROE on Passing Downs (14th)
Arizona State Pace 49th
Washington Overall Def IsoPPP 24th
Washington Def Standard Downs Success Rate 63rd
Washington Def Standard Downs IsoPPP 82nd
Washington Def Passing Downs Success Rate 92nd
Washington Def Passing Downs IsoPPP 3rd
Washington Def Standard Downs EPA/Pass Att 8th
Washington Def Passing Downs EPA/Pass Att 39th

This is a tricky matchup simply because there will not be many explosive plays. That said, there will be a large volume of successful plays. Both teams have elite-level PROE profiles and have areas where they can be taken advantage of. Washington will feature Penix Michael Penix Jr. as much as they can, as he is their best player hands-down and is now the frontrunner for the Heisman. Arizona State will be playing from behind, and they are comfortable with throwing the ball at a high rate, so this will not be unchartered territory.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!