College Football Week 10: Early Lines, Odds & Predictions (2022)

Here’s an early look at College Football Week 10 spreads and totals, along with my projections. We’ll run through significant injuries affecting spreads and hit on games you might want to consider betting early in the week due to expected line movement.

Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 10 College Football Power Rankings >>

In the box below are my adjusted spreads for this weekend's games. ATL stands for "Adjusted Thor Line." Spreads are from the home team’s perspective, i.e., a negative number means the home team is favored. In the value column, a negative number indicates points of value on the spread for the home team, while a positive number indicates points value on the away team. ATT stands for "Adjusted Thor Total." Projected totals are based on 2021 data and do not account for personnel or schematic changes (i.e., bring that with you to your handicap)

2022: 52-44-2 ATS (54.2%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 10 College Football Power Rankings >>

2022: 52-44-2 ATS (54.2%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

College Football Week 10: Early Lines, Odds & Predictions (2022)

Away	Home	ATL	ATT	Spread	Value	Total	Value	Day	CST
Ball St.	Kent St.	-4.9	57	-6.5	1.6	62.5	-5.5	Tuesday	6:00 PM
Buffalo	Ohio	1.8	59	3	-1.2	58.5	0.5	Tuesday	6:30 PM
Central Michigan	Northern Illinois	-4.5	69.5	-4	-0.5	55.5	14	Wednesday	6:00 PM
Western Michigan	Bowling Green	-1.1	51	-3.5	2.4	46.5	4.5	Wednesday	6:00 PM
Appalachian St.	Coastal Carolina	2.8	67.5	2.5	0.3	63.5	4	Thursday	6:00 PM
UTEP	Rice	-4.7	57.5	-3.5	-1.2	48.5	9	Thursday	6:30 PM
Massachusetts	Connecticut	-13.7	46.5	-15.5	1.8	40.5	6	Friday	6:00 PM
Duke	Boston College	6.4	61	9.5	-3.1	47.5	13.5	Friday	6:00 PM
Oregon St.	Washington	-4.0	66	-4.5	0.5	60.5	5.5	Friday	9:30 PM
Air Force	Army	6.6	43	6.5	0.1	39.5	3.5	Saturday*	10:30 AM
North Carolina	Virginia	8.8	66	9.5	-0.7	58.5	7.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Kentucky	Missouri	2.5	47.5	2.5	0.0	43.5	4	Saturday	11:00 AM
Ohio St.	Northwestern	36.6	61.5	37.5	-0.9	61.5	0	Saturday	11:00 AM
Texas Tech	TCU	-11.3	78	-9.5	-1.8	70.5	7.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Minnesota	Nebraska	11.3	56	15.5	-4.2	46.5	9.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Iowa	Purdue	-2.9	51.5	-4.5	1.6	42.5	9	Saturday	11:00 AM
Tulane	Tulsa	6.8	53	7.5	-0.7	58.5	-5.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Florida	Texas A&M	-5.0	53.5	-3	-2.0	53.5	0	Saturday	11:00 AM
Western Kentucky	Charlotte	13.7	87	16.5	-2.8	72.5	14.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Maryland	Wisconsin	-4.2	62	-5.5	1.3	52.5	9.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech	-5.9	39.5	-3.5	-2.4	40.5	-1	Saturday	11:30 AM
South Florida	Temple	0.6	54.5	3.5	-2.9	51.5	3	Saturday	1:00 PM
Marshall	Old Dominion	6.2	54.5	2.5	3.7	46.5	8	Saturday	1:00 PM
Georgia St.	Southern Miss	-4.4	47.5	-2.5	-1.9	50.5	-3	Saturday	2:00 PM
Middle Tennessee	Louisiana Tech	2.6	71.5	2.5	0.1	63.5	8	Saturday	2:00 PM
Baylor	Oklahoma	-3.5	58	-3.5	0.0	57.5	0.5	Saturday	2:00 PM
Oregon	Colorado	29.6	61	31.5	-2.0	61.5	-0.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Oklahoma St.	Kansas	5.8	75	2.5	3.3	65.5	9.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Tennessee	Georgia	-8.0	71.5	-8.5	0.5	65.5	6	Saturday	2:30 PM
New Mexico	Utah St.	-9.8	43	-15.5	5.7	43.5	-0.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
UTSA	UAB	-4.5	56	1.5	-6.0	51.5	4.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Washington St.	Stanford	3.2	45.5	4.5	-1.3	49.5	-4	Saturday	2:30 PM
West Virginia	Iowa St.	-6.4	52	-7.5	1.1	50.5	1.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Syracuse	Pittsburgh	0.1	57.5	-3.5	3.6	50.5	7	Saturday	2:30 PM
Penn St.	Indiana	16.9	48	13.5	3.4	53.5	-5.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Michigan St.	Illinois	-10.9	48	-16.5	5.6	42.5	5.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
UCF	Memphis	5.7	63	3.5	2.2	61.5	1.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Liberty	Arkansas	-14.3	61.5	-13.5	-0.8	64.5	-3	Saturday	3:00 PM
South Alabama	Georgia Southern	3.4	54.5	3.5	-0.1	60.5	-6	Saturday	3:00 PM
Florida International	North Texas	-21.2	56.5	-20.5	-0.7	63.5	-7	Saturday	3:00 PM
Troy	Louisiana	0.8	38	5.5	-4.7	43.5	-5.5	Saturday	4:00 PM
Texas St.	Louisiana-Monroe	1.3	52.5	1	0.3	51.5	1	Saturday	4:00 PM
Alabama	LSU	10.7	58.5	12.5	-1.8	58.5	0	Saturday	6:00 PM
UNLV	San Diego St.	-6.4	47.5	-6.5	0.1	48.5	-1	Saturday	6:00 PM
Houston	SMU	-3.2	70.5	-2.5	-0.7	67.5	3	Saturday	6:00 PM
Brigham Young	Boise St.	-6.4	56.5	-7.5	1.1	55.5	1	Saturday	6:00 PM
Texas	Kansas St.	0.3	52.5	2.5	-2.2	54.5	-2	Saturday	6:00 PM
Clemson	Notre Dame	4.1	50.5	3.5	0.6	47.5	3	Saturday	6:30 PM
Auburn	Mississippi St.	-11.3	59	-13.5	2.2	52.5	6.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Michigan	Rutgers	25.4	55	25.5	-0.1	45.5	9.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Navy	Cincinnati	-21.1	52.5	-20.5	-0.6	47.5	5	Saturday	6:30 PM
South Carolina	Vanderbilt	10.6	59.5	6.5	4.1	49.5	10	Saturday	6:30 PM
Arizona	Utah	-21.9	68.5	-17.5	-4.4	67.5	1	Saturday	6:30 PM
James Madison	Louisville	-7.2	61	-7.5	0.3	55.5	5.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Florida St.	Miami (FL)	6.0	56	7.5	-1.5	52.5	3.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Wake Forest	North Carolina St.	3.7	68	5.5	-1.9	54.5	13.5	Saturday	7:00 PM
UCLA	Arizona St.	9.8	66.5	10.5	-0.7	63.5	3	Saturday	8:30 PM
Colorado St.	San Jose St.	-21.4	43	-24.5	3.1	45.5	-2.5	Saturday	9:30 PM
Hawai’i	Fresno St.	-23.4	51	-24.5	1.1	58.5	-7.5	Saturday	9:30 PM
California	USC	-19.7	53	-21.5	1.8	59.5	-6.5	Saturday	9:30 PM

Coaching News

Mississippi State (-13.5) vs. Auburn
ATL: MSU -11.3

After months of speculation, Auburn finally fired HC Bryan Harsin on Monday. Harsin gets a $15.5 million buyout, half ($7.75 million) due within 30 days. The school paid former HC Gus Malzahn a $21.7 million buyout to clear the way for Harsin's hiring.

Harsin, a bizarre choice and odd fit from the beginning, finished 9-12 for the Tigers. This past Saturday, Auburn lost by 14 to Arkansas to extend the Tigers' losing streak to four games.

Harsin was nearly fired last spring, following his inaugural 6-7 campaign. Media reports of potential indiscretions inside his program led to a university investigation. The university cleared Harsin, paving the way for Year 2 - in what had already become an extremely awkward situation. It was hard to argue with Harsin's assertion that boosters were behind a potential smear campaign. Both sides were still very clearly salty.

Auburn opened with victories over Mercer and San Jose State, but the Tigers have only beaten Missouri in OT by a field goal in going 1-5 since then. The writing has been on the wall for some time. With Auburn hiring Mississippi State AD John Cohen to the same post, it made sense to rip off the band-aid now and give Cohen a long runway for his upcoming coaching search. Cohen's tenure will be determined by that choice and that choice alone.

Speaking of that, the top reported rumored candidates Cohen may look at to replace Harsin include: Mississippi HC Lane Kiffin, former Carolina Panthers and Baylor HC Matt Rhule, Mississippi State HC Mike Leach, Liberty HC Hugh Freeze, Jackson State HC Deion Sanders, Kentucky HC Mark Stoops, Coastal Carolina HC Jamey Chadwell, Baylor OC Jeff Grimes, Miami DC Kevin Steele, former UAB HC Bill Clark, Georgia OC Todd Monken, Alabama OC Bill O'Brien, and Alabama co-DC Charles Kelly, among others.

In the meantime, Auburn turns to RB coach Carnell “Cadillac” Williams to serve as interim coach. The former Auburn legend and All-American is in his fourth year on the staff. I appreciate this move if only because it will make it harder for the home crowd to boo the team as it limps to the finish line. How are you going to boo Cadillac in Jordan-Hare?

Suspension News

Illinois (-10.9) vs. Michigan State
ATL: Illinois -16.5

Michigan State has suspended LB Tank Brown, CB Khary Crump, S Angelo Grose, and DE Zion Young indefinitely for their roles in a post-game melee on Saturday in the Michigan Stadium tunnels leading to each team's locker room.

Michigan DBs Ja'Den McBurrows and Gemon Green could be seen in separate videos getting pummeled by multiple Spartans. Wolverines HC Jim Harbaugh said McBurrows and Green were "assaulted" in the "sickening" act, and that "an apology will not get the job done" in resolving the situation.

Harbaugh expects criminal charges to be filed. For his part, Michigan AD Warde Manuel said he contacted local authorities after the incident. Harbaugh told reporters that one of his two players - he didn't specify which - suffered a nasal injury, believed to be a broken nose.

Michigan State HC Mel Tucker, seen on video in the immediate aftermath of one of the incidents appearing to loudly smack a door, told reporters in his postgame presser within an hour of that footage being shot that he didn't know what had happened and that he was "going to have to figure out what happened."

He lied.

The next day, on Sunday, Tucker had the temerity to tweet out a prepared statement that his program "has a responsibility to uphold the highest level of sportsmanship." He did not condemn the actions of his players. To our knowledge, Tucker has not yet explained why he lied after the game.

Tucker has $85 million remaining on his fully-guaranteed contract after this season. His team has been shockingly non-competitive all season. But his worst coaching performance of the season arguably came after Saturday's game. To use Tucker's own words, his post requires a responsibility to uphold the highest level of integrity. He showed zero after an incident that is now as synonymous with his tenure as last season's on-field success.

The Spartans remain a hard-fade for the rest of the season. But the market is going to make it difficult to get any excess value doing so. Illinois has not been favored by more than 14 points against any FBS opponent this season. On Sept. 22, the Illini were favored by -20.5 against FCS Chattanooga.

Injury News

Toledo (bye)

Toledo QB Dequan Finn didn't play on Saturday against Eastern Michigan with the undisclosed injury he suffered on the last play of the game the week before against Buffalo.

Toledo dug itself into a hole against EMU but managed to come-from-behind in a 27-24 win. Rockets QB2 Tucker Gleason drew the start with Finn out, going 15-of-27 for 238 yards and three TD. EMU's defense is quite bad.

Toledo has been mum on Finn's status. His loss is enormous. Despite missed time, Finn is tied for the team's rushing lead in addition to his work from the pocket.

If there's good news for Toledo, it's that the late bye week gives Finn an extra week to heal, and the final three games lay out about as ideally as you could hope: home games against Ball State and Bowling Green, and a road tilt at WMU. My power rankings list all three teams among the bottom-16 in the FBS.

Duke (-9.5) at Boston College
ATL: Duke -6.4

Boston College QB Phil Jurkovec exited Saturday’s upset loss to Connecticut in the third quarter with an apparent right knee injury after landing hard on a tackle. BC QB2 Emmett Morehead finished out the game, going 7-for-16 for 75 yards and a 0/1 TD/INT rate.

Boston College fell to 2-8 with the loss. The Eagles are now 4-12 in their last 16 games.

Jurkovec's status is unclear. Boston College, already a fade, would become all the more so if Jurkovec is forced to miss more time. Downfield passing is the only offense BC has consistently generated this year. You can probably kiss that goodbye if Jurkovec is on the sidelines.

Texas (-2.5) at Kansas State
ATL: UT -0.3

Early last week, I was told to expect KSU starting QB Adrian Martinez to be out against Oklahoma State. But then, on Saturday morning, ESPN's Pete Thamel reported Martinez was a "true game-time decision."

Martinez went through pregame warmups with the starting offense, and local reporters tweeted out he'd be starting. But Martinez, who suffered a leg injury last week against TCU, never took a snap.

KSU QB2 Will Howard threw for 225 yards on 13-of-20 passing with two TD and an INT in the blowout win over Okie State. Howard missed one possession while appearing to tend to his shoulder, but returned to finish out the game.

Howard has looked very good in his two opportunities this year, proving he isn't much of a downgrade from Martinez. But one thing to keep an eye on: KSU HC Chris Klieman has stated multiple times that he's hoping to keep Howard below four appearances this season to preserve a season of eligibility by redshirting Howard.

Howard has one more appearance before Klieman is going to be put to the test on his preference. Which brings us back to Martinez. He should currently be considered questionable for this weekend.

Martinez didn't return to practice last week until Thursday. And, on that day, he was only a limited participant. Monitor his practice status closely this week. That will give you a better indication of whether he's going to play than anything his coaches say.

SMU (-2.5) vs. Houston
ATL: SMU -3.2

SMU played Saturday's game against Tulsa without injured QB Tanner Mordecai, who didn't pass out of the concussion protocol in time. Then, SMU QB2 Preston Stone was knocked out for the game with what is believed to be a broken left collarbone.

Stone ended the game on the sidelines in street clothes in a sling. He's expected to be out for the rest of the season.

SMU QB3 Kevin Jennings finished out the game, going 8-for-11 for 91 yards and a TD. It looks like it'll be Jennings under center until Mordecai returns. Mordecai's uncertain status explains why this line opened under a field goal.

Oklahoma State (-2.5) at Kansas
ATL: OSU -5.8

Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders exited last Saturday's 48-0 blowout loss to Kansas State in the fourth quarter with an aggravation of his problematic throwing shoulder injury. OSU QB2 Gunnar Gundy mopped up from there.

Cowboys HC Mike Gundy is one of the top-three most tight-lipped coaches in the nation with injuries. He's going to tell us nothing about Sanders' status this week - and if he does, don't trust it.

Gundy isn't talking, but the market appears to be telling us something significant. This line opened OSU -6 on Sunday before plummeting to OSU -2.5 by Monday late-morning.

Early-money is banking on Sanders not playing. If he doesn't, Okie State needs to be significantly downgraded. Okie State is also dealing with injury concerns at RB, WR, OL, and S.

Beyond that, this is a terrible situational spot for the Pokes. It's the second leg of back-to-back travel off a demoralizing loss, a loss that snuffed any chance of a longshot one-loss CFP bid and dealt an enormous blow to OSU's Big 12 title chances.

Meanwhile, Kansas comes in fresh off a bye, has a chance to get starting QB Jalon Daniels back, and is looking at their best chance for crucial Win 6, which would send Rock Chalk to its first bowl since 2008.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) vs. Syracuse
ATL: Cuse -0.1

Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader didn't play in the half of Saturday's loss to Notre Dame. HC Dino Babers had some interesting comments in the postgame. He emphatically shot down the idea that Schrader had suffered a head injury. Instead, Babers revealed that Schrader came into the Notre Dame game with an injury that affected his first-half play.

"I just didn’t feel like he could protect himself," Babers said. "He’s a fighter. He wanted to be out there. He did not want to come out of the game. But watching the first half, he just didn’t have all the tools in the toolbox."

Syracuse QB2 Carlos Del Rio-Wilson finished out the game. Babers also emphatically shot down the idea that Schrader's job may be in jeopardy: "There isn’t a quarterback controversy. When Shrader is healthy, Shrader will go," Babers said.

Shrader's status is up in the air for this coming week against Pittsburgh. He's another practice-monitor guy.

Syracuse also has lost starting CB Garrett Williams to a season-ending injury suffered in the Notre Dame game. Williams is a solid player. But he's not the team's best corner - that's Darian Chestnut - and Syracuse is deep in the secondary.

Minnesota (-15.5) at Nebraska
ATL: Minny -11.3

Nebraska QB Casey Thompson suffered a hand injury that ended his day early on Saturday against Illinois. Thompson has a history with hand injuries, unfortunately. He underwent offseason thumb surgery for an injury he dealt with as a Texas Longhorn last season.

Thompson's exit initially brought QB Logan Smothers into the game. But it wasn't long before the Cornhuskers brought in QB Chubba Purdy - Brock's brother and a former Florida State Seminole - to play the second half.

This line certainly implies that the market believes Thompson will miss this game. Nebraska interim HC Mickey Joseph probably made it more comfortable in that supposition when he said on his weekly coaches show, "We don’t know if [Thompson is] going to be ready ... but I don’t think he will.”

If Thompson misses the game, Nebraska will likely use both Smothers and Purdy against the Gophers. Very difficult assignment for both against this nasty Minnesota defense.

Ohio State (-37.5) at Northwestern
ATL: OSU -36.6

Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba missed Saturday’s 44-31 victory over Penn State with his problematic hamstring injury. And then, in the first half, OSU RB2 Miyan Williams exited with an injury to his right hand or arm.

ESPN reported Saturday that Smith-Njigba's return timeline is up-in-the-air, while Williams' injury is not season-ending. One year after breaking the Big 10's single-season receiving yardage record, Smith-Njigba has recorded only five catches for 43 yards in 2022.

At least OSU has plenty in its receiver room to weather JSN's absence. The Buckeyes' lack of running back depth makes that an entirely different conversation. Williams and TreVeyon Henderson have both battled injuries throughout the season, and backup Evan Pryor was lost before the season to a knee injury.

USC (-21.5) vs. California
ATL: USC -19.7

Reigning Biletnikoff winner USC WR Jordan Addison and leading-tackler LB Eric Gentry were out on Saturday against Arizona. Both suffered lower-leg injuries in the loss to Utah.

In addition, USC was without starting WR Mario Williams, LG Andrew Vorhees, DE Korey Foreman, and LB Ralen Goforth. USC has only said that Vorhees has a "physical issue." Vorhees, a midseason first-team PFF All-American, is one of the best interior offensive line prospects in the nation.

South Carolina (-6.5) at Vanderbilt
ATL: uSC -10.6

South Carolina RB MarShawn Lloyd was knocked out in the first half of Saturday’s loss to Missouri with what a local reporter deemed a “significant” quad bruise. Fortunately, Gamecocks HC Shane Beamer says Lloyd will likely be back this weekend.

Lloyd is uSC's best offensive player. If things take a turn for the worse and he ends up missing the Vandy game, Christian Beal-Smith and Juju McDowell would divvy touches.

Georgia (-8.0) vs. Tennessee
ATL: UGA -8.5

Georgia HC Kirby Smart says OLB Nolan Smith is doubtful to play against Tennessee because of a shoulder injury suffered over the weekend in a 42-20 victory over Florida. Smith is the Bulldogs' team leader in sacks (3), TFL (7), and hurries (16).

Georgia did get star DT Jalen Carter back for the Florida game after Carter missed the two previous games with a knee injury. But Carter, who was on a snap-count the three games before that while trying to play through the injury, once again played partial-snaps.

Against the Gators, he had 20, which was the most Carter had played since the opener against Oregon. Smart said Carter is still not 100%.

Not the best news with the Volunteers coming to town. The Vols lead the nation in scoring (49.4 points) and total offense (553 yards). QB Hendon Hooker - 2,338 yards with a 21/1 TD/INT rate - is now the Heisman favorite.

Texas A&M (-3) vs. Florida
ATL: A&M -5.0

Texas A&M QB Haynes King was withheld from Saturday’s game against Ole Miss with a shoulder injury suffered the previous week against South Carolina.

A&M QB2 true freshman Conner Weigman got the nod against the Rebels and went 28-for-44 for 338 yards, four TD, and zero INT. If I'm HC Jimbo Fisher, Weigman is my guy the rest of the season.

Not only is Weigman the future of the program, but he's clearly the best quarterback on the roster. Right now. And I'm including the injured Max Johnson in that.

On the other side, Florida TE Keon Zipperer will miss the rest of the season with an undisclosed injury. Neither Dante Zanders or Nick Elksnis has caught a pass this season, but that's likely about to change.

Florida State (-7.5) at Miami
ATL: FSU -6.0

Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke was withheld from Saturday's 14-12 4OT win over Virginia with the right shoulder injury that knocked him out of the Duke game the week before. Hurricanes QB2 Jake Garcia went 15-of-29 for 125 yards against the Cavaliers.

It's unclear if Van Dyke will be able to give it a-go this weekend against Florida State. Last week, all HC Mario Cristobal would say about Van Dyke's status was that Van Dyke had practiced “very little” last week but had “improved a bunch.”

Meanwhile, on the Florida State side, FSU RB1 Treshaun Ward missed Saturday’s blowout win over Georgia Tech with his own shoulder injury that's kept him on ice the past few weeks. But we got good news on Monday when HC Mike Norvell said he expects Ward back for Miami.

Virginia Tech (-3.5) vs. Georgia Tech
ATL: VT -5.9

Georgia Tech QB Jeff Sims missed Saturday’s 41-16 loss to Florida State with a foot injury. Georgia Tech QB2 Zach Gibson started, as expected. But Gibson was yanked after the second drive following a pair of three-and-outs that spanned -1 yard in sum.

So the Jackets put in QB3 freshman Zach Pyron, who went 18-for-28 for 198 yards, a passing TD, and a rushing TD. Almost assuredly, Pyron will be the starter until Sims returns.

While we're here: What the heck happened to Gibson? He threw for 1,262 yards and a perfect 10/0 TD/INT rate on 69.4% completions last year for Akron. He transferred to Tech with the expectation of pushing Sims for the job.

Not only didn't he win it, but Gibson has arguably been the FBS' worst quarterback in his looks, going 13-for-30 (43.4%) for 104 yards while taking eight sacks.

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced sports betting strategies - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.