Ten weeks of the college football season (including Week 0) are in the books, and there have been plenty of games and data to sift through when it comes to making our Week 10 player prop bets and picks.
Three of the biggest surprises of the college football season to date have been BYU, Indiana, and Army, who have all already gone over their projected season win total entering this week. While BYU is off this week, Indiana looks to avoid an upset on the road at Michigan State, while Army plays a game against a rival service academy in Air Force.
What will the college football rankings look like after this week, and which players will have the biggest impact? We went 2-1 with our college football player prop bets last week, and are back to continue the momentum this week.
Read on for our top Week 10 player prop bets and picks.
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Saturday's Best College Football Player Prop Bets & Picks
Let’s dive into our top college football Week 10 player prop bet picks on Saturday’s slate of games.
(College football player prop bet odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted)
Cam Ward (Miami) Under 2.5 passing touchdowns vs. Duke (-122)
Miami quarterback Cam Ward fell from the top spot of the Heisman Trophy futures odds after his worst performance of the season last week. Ward completed a season-low 62.9% of his passes for 208 yards (his first game under 304 yards) and zero touchdowns (his first game without multiple touchdowns).
Duke head coach (and former Hurricanes head coach) Mario Cristobal will love nothing more than to continue to spoil Ward's Heisman campaign. The Blue Devils rank in the top 20 nationally and second in the ACC in scoring defense (18.6 points per game allowed).
Duke's strength is its secondary, which entered last week against SMU ranked fourth in Pass Success, second in Havoc, and 11th in PFF Coverage grade. In addition, the defense as a whole was seventh in Finishing Drives, which lowers Ward's touchdown ceiling considerably.
Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) anytime touchdown scorer vs. Penn State (-105)
There is no doubt that this Penn State defense will pose as one of the stiffest tests of Jeremiah Smith's young career. But anytime I can get a player at -105 odds to score a touchdown after finding the endzone in seven straight games, I am going to pounce on that value.
Smith not only has eight receiving touchdowns through seven games, but he has also added one rushing. With a touchdown this week, he would tie Marvin Harrison Jr. (2023), Chris Olave (2021), and Terry Glenn (1995) with a touchdown in eight consecutive games.
Smith benefits from having Will Howard as his quarterback, as Howard ranks second nationally in passing efficiency, third in completion percentage, and 14th in passing touchdowns.
Howard has an 81.6 completion percentage and a 9-2 TD-INT ratio over the last three games. He is also the first Buckeyes quarterback since Justin Fields with an 80% completion percentage or better in three consecutive games.
It would behoove Ohio State to attack Penn State through the air anyway, as the Nittany Lions rush defense ranks second nationally in Stuff Rate and Defensive Line Yards, and allows 3.2 yards per carry.
Moliki Matavao (UCLA) anytime touchdown scorer vs. Nebraska (+350)
If you are looking for an under-the-radar anytime touchdown scorer play, look no further than UCLA tight end Moliki Matavao, as the Bruins are likely on the verge of a big change in offensive philosophy.
UCLA went into its last game against Rutgers ranked 134th in Rush Success and 132 in Line Yards. So it did what any smart team would do and attempted a season-high 38 passes, with much success.
Bruins quarterback Ethan Garbers threw for 383 yards (90 more than his previous season-high) and four touchdowns (he only had one other game prior to that with multiple passing touchdowns) in the upset win over Rutgers.
I expect a similar pass-happy attack from the Bruins when facing a Cornhuskers secondary that ranks outside the top 50 in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Matavao's 251 receiving yards lead the team. The Bruins also have had seven different pass-catchers score touchdowns, and the team has nine passing touchdowns compared to three rushing touchdowns, so they prefer to pass in the red zone.
These are great odds for Matavao to score his first receiving touchdown. And given that his receiving yards and yards per reception average have increased for three consecutive weeks, this should be the week he finally finds the endzone.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.