Here’s an early look at College Football Week 2 spreads, along with my projections. Below you can find my best bets of the week.
In the box below are my adjusted spreads for this weekend's games. ATL stands for "Adjusted Thor Line" and ATT stands for "Adjusted Thor Total." Spreads are from the perspective of the home team, i.e. a negative number indicates the home team is favored. In the value column, a negative number indicates points of value on the spread for the home team, while a positive number indicates points value on the away team. Similarly, in the totals value column, a negative number indicates points of line value on the over, while a positive number indicates points of line value on the under.
Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 2 College Football Power Rankings >>
| Away |
Home |
ATL |
Spread |
Value |
ATT |
Total |
Value |
Day |
| Louisville |
UCF |
-1.7 |
-5.5 |
3.8 |
59 |
61.5 |
-2.5 |
Friday |
| Boise St. |
New Mexico |
22.4 |
16.5 |
5.9 |
36 |
44 |
-8 |
Friday |
| Alabama |
Texas |
12.5 |
20 |
-7.5 |
80 |
65.5 |
14.5 |
Saturday |
| Arkansas St. |
Ohio St. |
-45.5 |
-44.5 |
-1.0 |
82 |
68.5 |
13.5 |
Saturday |
| Southern Miss |
Miami (FL) |
-24.5 |
-25 |
0.5 |
53 |
51 |
2 |
Saturday |
| South Carolina |
Arkansas |
-9.7 |
-8.5 |
-1.2 |
48.5 |
53 |
-4.5 |
Saturday |
| Wake Forest |
Vanderbilt |
12.4 |
12 |
0.4 |
71.5 |
65.5 |
6 |
Saturday |
| Missouri |
Kansas St. |
-8.1 |
-7.5 |
-0.6 |
58.5 |
57 |
1.5 |
Saturday |
| Duke |
Northwestern |
-17.4 |
-10 |
-7.4 |
57.5 |
58 |
-0.5 |
Saturday |
| Ohio |
Penn St. |
-31.2 |
-24.5 |
-6.7 |
49.5 |
54 |
-4.5 |
Saturday |
| North Carolina |
Georgia St. |
7.0 |
7.5 |
-0.5 |
66 |
64.5 |
1.5 |
Saturday |
| UTSA |
Army |
-1.1 |
2.5 |
-3.6 |
59 |
54.5 |
4.5 |
Saturday |
| South Alabama |
Central Michigan |
-5.1 |
-5 |
-0.1 |
55 |
59 |
-4 |
Saturday |
| Western Michigan |
Ball St. |
5.9 |
6.5 |
-0.6 |
52 |
52.5 |
-0.5 |
Saturday |
| Marshall |
Notre Dame |
-19.9 |
-20.5 |
0.6 |
53 |
51.5 |
1.5 |
Saturday |
| Appalachian St. |
Texas A&M |
-13.8 |
-19 |
5.2 |
48.5 |
54 |
-5.5 |
Saturday |
| Tennessee |
Pittsburgh |
-2.8 |
6.5 |
-9.3 |
79.5 |
67.5 |
12 |
Saturday |
| Washington St. |
Wisconsin |
-19.4 |
-17.5 |
-1.9 |
48 |
49 |
-1 |
Saturday |
| Colorado |
Air Force |
-14.4 |
-17.5 |
3.1 |
46.5 |
49.5 |
-3 |
Saturday |
| Memphis |
Navy |
8.4 |
6 |
2.4 |
51.5 |
50.5 |
1 |
Saturday |
| Maryland |
Charlotte |
22.3 |
27 |
-4.7 |
68 |
65.5 |
2.5 |
Saturday |
| Akron |
Michigan St. |
-34.3 |
-34.5 |
0.2 |
60 |
56 |
4 |
Saturday |
| Iowa St. |
Iowa |
-8.5 |
-3.5 |
-5.0 |
51.5 |
40 |
11.5 |
Saturday |
| Houston |
Texas Tech |
2.2 |
-3.5 |
5.7 |
67 |
65 |
2 |
Saturday |
| UNLV |
California |
-12.4 |
-12.5 |
0.1 |
46 |
48 |
-2 |
Saturday |
| Virginia |
Illinois |
3.1 |
-4.5 |
7.6 |
53 |
57 |
-4 |
Saturday |
| Middle Tennessee |
Colorado St. |
-1.0 |
-11 |
10.0 |
53 |
57 |
-4 |
Saturday |
| Old Dominion |
East Carolina |
-14.4 |
-13 |
-1.4 |
60 |
51.5 |
8.5 |
Saturday |
| UAB |
Liberty |
0.6 |
6.5 |
-5.9 |
54.5 |
50.5 |
4 |
Saturday |
| Kansas |
West Virginia |
-9.3 |
-13.5 |
4.2 |
59.5 |
60 |
-0.5 |
Saturday |
| Kent St. |
Oklahoma |
-33.4 |
-33.5 |
0.1 |
72.5 |
72.5 |
0 |
Saturday |
| Kentucky |
Florida |
-0.8 |
-5 |
4.2 |
57.5 |
52.5 |
5 |
Saturday |
| Massachusetts |
Toledo |
-30.9 |
-28.5 |
-2.4 |
58 |
49.5 |
8.5 |
Saturday |
| Northern Illinois |
Tulsa |
0.6 |
-6.5 |
7.1 |
64 |
62 |
2 |
Saturday |
| Eastern Michigan |
Louisiana |
-7.8 |
-11.5 |
3.7 |
55 |
55.5 |
-0.5 |
Saturday |
| Florida International |
Texas St. |
-14.3 |
-14 |
-0.3 |
58 |
59.5 |
-1.5 |
Saturday |
| Syracuse |
Connecticut |
25.4 |
22.5 |
2.9 |
57.5 |
49 |
8.5 |
Saturday |
| Arizona St. |
Oklahoma St. |
-5.7 |
-11 |
5.3 |
43 |
55 |
-12 |
Saturday |
| USC |
Stanford |
8.2 |
8 |
0.2 |
64 |
67 |
-3 |
Saturday |
| San Jose St. |
Auburn |
-20.9 |
-23 |
2.1 |
45.5 |
48.5 |
-3 |
Saturday |
| Georgia Southern |
Nebraska |
-19.7 |
-23 |
3.3 |
48.5 |
62.5 |
-14 |
Saturday |
| Hawai’i |
Michigan |
-43.8 |
-52 |
8.2 |
59 |
67 |
-8 |
Saturday |
| Boston College |
Virginia Tech |
-5.2 |
-3 |
-2.2 |
42 |
46 |
-4 |
Saturday |
| Baylor |
Brigham Young |
-5.0 |
-3 |
-2.0 |
56 |
53.5 |
2.5 |
Saturday |
| New Mexico St. |
UTEP |
-14.6 |
-16 |
1.4 |
68 |
46.5 |
21.5 |
Saturday |
| Oregon St. |
Fresno St. |
-4.3 |
1 |
-5.3 |
63 |
61.5 |
1.5 |
Saturday |
| Mississippi St. |
Arizona |
14.1 |
11 |
3.1 |
56 |
60.5 |
-4.5 |
Saturday |
Boise State (-16.5) at New Mexico (Friday)
ATL: BSU -22.4
My system is showing a tasty eight points of line value on Boise State. That's mostly because of BSU's stunning Week 1 dud against Oregon State. But that game was over before it started due to QB Hank Bachmeier's three first-half turnovers.
The offense gained only 22 yards in Bachmeier's 17 snaps before he was given the hook. It was a performance totally out of character with his previous work. Will BSU go back to the previously-steady veteran, or turn to exciting frosh QB Taylen Green?
Green took over for Bachmeier against Oregon State and impressed, becoming the first Broncos quarterback since 2014 to rush for more than 100 yards. Green finished 19-of-28 for 155 yards and an INT while rushing for 102 yards and two TD on 11 attempts.
In the preseason, my adjusted spread for this game was BSU -25.5. BSU lost a little ground in the power rankings this week due to last week's loss. But favoring BSU by a mere -16.5 is an overreaction. BSU isn't going to turn the ball over three times immediately after kickoff again.
New Mexico checks in at No. 123 in my power rankings. The Lobos beat FCS Maine in the opener 41-0. Perhaps that result gained some trust in the marketplace, but not from me. The Lobos' run-heavy offense is going to have more issues moving the ball against BSU than they did Maine.
I see Boise State taking out some frustration from last weekend by blasting New Mexico on Friday night.
Bet: Boise State (-16.5)
Iowa (-3.5) vs. Iowa St.
ATL: Iowa -8.5
Those who watched Iowa score seven points on two safeties and a field goal in last week's 7-3 win over South Dakota State would be forgiven for not wanting to invest in the Hawkeyes. But this line is short by any objective measure. It implies these teams are roughly equal in a vacuum, with Iowa only installed as favorites due to the game being played in Kinnick Stadium
But these teams aren't equal.
Iowa's offense is horrible. But all the Hawkeyes are asking is that it not turn the ball over, because Iowa has a top-3 national defense/special teams combination.
Just take a look back at last year. Iowa beat Iowa State in Ames 27-17 in a game the Hawkeyes only gained 173 yards of offense. The Hawkes scored 20 points off four forced turnovers. That Iowa State team was better than this one. Over the offseason, the Cyclones lost QB Brock Purdy, RB Breece Hall, TE Charlie Kolar, two OL starters, and eight starters on defense.
Not only that, but ISU didn't replace the outgoing production with plug-and-play starters from the portal. Per 247Sports, ISU's transfer crop ranked No. 110 in the nation. Not much could be ascertained about the new cast of characters in ISU's win over an FCS opponent in the opener. Things won't be so easy on Saturday.
Iowa's defense ranked 12th in EPA/rush last season and returned almost everyone in the front-seven. The Hawkeyes also ranked No. 10 in EPA/pass last season despite losing CB Riley Moss to a season-ending injury. Moss is back, now.
Iowa is traditionally money in games with short spreads like this. In its last 16 games with spreads of 3.5-points or less, Iowa is 12-4 ATS. Everyone is concerned about Iowa's offense. But the bigger question should be: How is Iowa State going to score against this defense?
Bet: Iowa (-3.5)
Syracuse (-22.5) at UConn
ATL: Cuse -25.4
The Orange were one of the pleasant surprises of Week 1, blasting Louisville 31-7. It appears Syracuse's passing game and defense have both taken a large step forward since the end of last season. The offense is now directed by respected OC Robert Anae, who appears to have coaxed major improvement out of the passing attack with his quick-hitting sideline-to-sideline machinations.
That performance should have gotten Syracuse upgraded in power rankings. But the sportsbooks appear to have overlooked that, dropping a spread more indicative of the preseason outlooks for both teams.
I purchased a Syracuse +20.5 ticket on Sunday. Since then, predictable money on the Orange has come in to push this spread to -22.5. I still think there's value on Syracuse at this number - I would bet them up to -24.
Bet: Syracuse (-22.5)
Pittsburgh (+6.5) vs. Tennessee
ATL: Pitt -2.8
It appears as though Pittsburgh will be without RB Rodney Hammond Jr., who suffered a right leg injury on a helmet-to-helmet targeting call in the win over the Mountaineers. Hammond was a breakout star against WVU, posting 129 scrimmage yards and two TD.
Pitt is going to miss him. But Hammond's absence will clear the way for Israel Abanikanda, who was expected to lead the rotation this season but took a backseat against the Mountaineers as Hammond had one of the best games of his life.
My system is showing an absurd amount of value on Pitt in this game, installing the Panthers as 2.8-point favorites in a game the market has set at Vols -6.5 - that's nearly a double-digit discrepancy.
Recent history also points towards Pitt. While Tennessee is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 against ranked opponents, Pitt is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home underdog of 6.5 or fewer. Pitt HC Pat Narduzzi loves these spots.
Bet: Pittsburgh (+6.5)
Virginia (+4.5) at Illinois
ATL: UVA -3.1
This is the second-straight week the books have opened Illinois with a weird number. Last week, it was opening the Illini as four-point underdogs to Indiana. That appeared to be a mistake line. Illini gagged away a win late and lost 23-20, but covered most spread tickets purchased through mid-week.
This week, the books have surprisingly swung the other way, despite Illinois' late-game collapse. This time, it's the Illini who are getting too much respect. My numbers say Virginia should be favored.
I do think that Virginia's front-seven will have issues with Illinois' physical downhill running game. I also think that Illinois is going to have more problems defending Virginia's high-octane passing attack, which includes four future NFL receivers and a quarterback who may get drafted in Brennan Armstrong. I like the Cavs to spring the upset.
Bet: Virginia (+4.5)
Fresno State (+1) at Oregon State
ATL: FSU -4.3
Another instance where I think the books opened the wrong team as the favorite.
Oregon State looked incredible the opener, racing out to a 24-0 lead over Boise State at halftime in an eventual 34-17 win. But the Beavs were greatly aided by BSU QB Hank Bachmeier's nightmare performance.
Bachmeier had almost as many first half turnovers (three) as he had completions (four). By the time Bachmeier was yanked, the game was already, for all practical purposes, over.
Fresno didn't have a similar opportunity to impress the betting public, playing an FCS opponent (35-7 win). But we can't forget that the Bulldogs have one of the most devastating aerial attacks in the nation, led by QB Jake Haener and a deep group of receivers.
Oregon State's pass defense was No. 82 EPA/pass in 2021. Bachmeier's dud flattered the Beavs. Haener should provide a market correction in that regard.
Bet: Fresno State (+1)
Houston (+3.5) at Texas Tech
ATL: UH -2.2
Texas Tech is going to be without its starting QB Tyler Shough. Shough suffered a left shoulder injury in last week's 63-10 victory over Murray State. Even without that injury, my system prefered Houston, installing the Cougars as favorites.
Tech's backup QB Donovan Smith is pretty good. He started the last four games of 2021 and won the Liberty Bowl MVP award. Smith was exceptional against the FCS opponent on Saturday, going 14-of-16 for 221 yards and four TD.
But this game will provide a much-stiffer test. Houston lost a bunch defensively over the offseason. But the Cougars' high-octane offense returned QB Clayton Tune and WR Tank Dell, guaranteeing it would light up scoreboards again.
Asking Smith to go score-for-score with that Houston offense might be asking too much. Texas Tech is 3-6 ATS as a home favorite against ranked opponents in its last nine. Getting 3.5-points leeway on a live 'dog is an opportunity I'm not bypassing.
Bet: Houston (+3.5)
Kansas (+13.5) at West Virginia
ATL: WVU -9.3
This feels like a good opportunity to invest in Kansas before the market catches up to the advancements the program has made under HC Lance Leipold. KU finished 2-10 last year, their 12th-consecutive season with three wins or less. But there's a deeper story to be told.
The Jayhawks were their typical selves during a 1-5 start. But after that, a breakthrough of sorts. KU led Oklahoma after three quarters before succumbing late to Caleb Williams in a close loss. Rock Chalk upset Texas, and came up just-short in two more upset bids to close the season, a pair of losses by a combined nine points against TCU and West Virginia. With better luck, KU could have been 5-7.
We knew this version of the Jayhawks was going to be better than last year's. Kansas returned 17 starters from what was an exceedingly young team to rank No. 21 in Phil Steele's returning experience metris.
The young backfield is exciting with sophomore standouts, QB Jalon Daniels and RB Devin Neal, and four starting offensive linemen returned. The defense was bad last year, but it returned eight starters, and Leipold added several instant-impact transfers to the group.
The Jayhawks blasted Tennessee Tech 56-10 last week. It was an FCS opponent, sure. But consider that KU only beat its FCS opponent by three in 2021. And that it went 0-9 in 2020. And that the two years prior to that, KU lost to an FCS team, and beat the other by only seven. Progress is progress.
On the other side, I'm not sold on West Virginia. The Mountaineers looked decent in last week's 38-31 loss to Pitt. But QB JT Daniels barely completed 50% of his passes, RB1 Tony Mathis didn't look like a difference-maker, and the defensive regression we expected was apparent.
I think KU gives West Virginia a scare and keeps it within this number.
Bet: Kansas (+13.5)
Liberty (+6.5) at UAB
ATL: UAB -0.6
The Blazers appear to be getting roughly a touchdown of credit on the spread. And that's probably because Liberty will be without QB Charlie Brewer for 6-8 weeks after Brewer broke his hand in last Saturday's OT win over Southern Miss. While the market sees losing the 10,000-yard career passer Brewer as a downgrade, I do not.
That's because Brewer's injury opens the door for frosh QB Kedon Salter. Salter sparked the offense off the bench in that narrow win over USM, going 8-for-13 for 148 yards and two TD, along with 65 rushing yards.
Salter is a former 247Consensus top-160 overall recruit. Salter starred in the 300-meter hurdles, high jump, long jump, and triple jump as a high school track star. Normally schools like Liberty don't have access to this caliber of recruit, but Salter was forced out at Tennessee following an arrest in connection with an assault and burglary shortly after signing.
Salter's game is far more similar to former starter Malik Willis' than Brewer's, so the staff shouldn't have a tough time adapting to the unexpected change. Salter's high-octane skillset meshes well with HC Hugh Freeze's breakneck offensive style.
Last year, Utah started 1-2 with Brewer as starter. The Utes benched Brewer for Cam Rising heading into Week 4. Utah's offense took off and the team finished on a 9-2 heater. I think Liberty just similarly upgraded behind center.
UAB has been a revelation since re-instituting its football program. But don't forget: former HC Bill Clark unexpectedly stepped away over the summer due to health complications. UAB crushed Alabama A&M 59-0 in new HC Bryan Vincent's debut, but they should have. This game is the first time Vincent will be tested.
I see a close game that comes down to the wire. I want those points.
Bet: Liberty (+6.5)
Northern Illinois (+6.5) at Tulsa
ATL: NIU -0.6
It's a bit surprising to see Tulsa get this much respect. Last week, Tulsa opened the season against Wyoming, a team that had just been beaten silly by Illinois (which proceeded to lose to Indiana). Wyoming upset Tulsa 40-37 in 2OT.
Tulsa had all sorts of success attacking Wyoming's secondary (460 passing yards), but struggled to run the ball, and struggled to prevent Wyoming's feeble offense from converting. Tulsa's defense has been strong in recent years, but it's going to have more problems stopping the run this year than in recent memory after losing three front-six starters in the 3-3-5 scheme.
Northern Illinois, the defending MAC champions, went 9-4 last season with an inexperienced roster. This year, 18 starters returned, catapulting NIU from Phil Steele's No. 126 most-experienced roster in 2021 to No. 12 this year.
The market may be slightly underselling NIU after its opening-week 34-27 win over FCS Eastern Illinois. But the final score made that game appear closer than it really was. NIU led 31-13 with 10 minutes left and began to get reserves on the field. EIU scored two TD over the last 10 minutes, including one with two minutes left to pull within seven.
NIU's RB combination of Harrison Waylee and Antario Brown should keep the chains moving against Tulsa's new-look front. I like the Huskies to spring the upset.
Bet: Northern Illinois (+6.5)
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