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College Football Week 4 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Kansas vs. Duke (2022)

by September 23, 2022
2022 Liberty Bowl: College Football Same Game Parlay Picks: Wednesday (Kansas vs. Arkansas)

Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 4 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s game: Kansas vs. Duke.

And check out our other College Football Week 4 game previews and best bets:

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 4 College Football Power Rankings >>

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College Football Week 4 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Kansas vs. Duke

Let’s go with another Kansas Over and ride this wave! I’ve hammered the narrative of Jalon Daniels scoring at least 28 points in every game he’s started. Last week, the Jayhawks put up their lowest total of the season with only 48 points against Houston. This top 3 scoring offense is fueled by the run game, which is currently seventh in the country, averaging 259 ground yards per game. Duke’s offense hasn’t been as effective, but the Blue Devils have put up at least 30 points in each of their three wins. Duke’s offense is also fueled by the run game, ranking 38th in the nation and averaging 205 yards per game.  

The only thing that might be concerning is that these teams are 97th (Kansas) and 106th (Duke) in plays per game. This total still holds up if we look at Points Per Drive and drop to the lowest drives either team has had in a game at 8; that final would be 42-28.    

These defenses have been less than impressive. Kansas has given up at least 30 points to the two P5 teams they’ve played. Duke is much better at scoring defense. They gave up 435 passing yards to Northwestern and 217 rushing yards to FCS NCA&T, proving this defense can get beat either way. Of course, these are short sample sizes, but if we go back to last year’s defenses, we are talking about the 129th-ranked scoring defense from Kansas (42.2 PPG), and Duke wasn’t much better at 127th (39.8 PPG).  

I thought that the Kansas offense would control this game. In the two P5 games Kansas has played, the average total was 87.5. The total we have is 3 TDs short of that, so it feels safe to me!

Bet: Over 64.5 (-110 on DraftKings)

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College Football, Game Previews, Picks