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College Football Week 4 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Kentucky vs. Northern Illinois (2022)

by September 23, 2022
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Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 4 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s game: Kentucky vs. Northern Illinois.

And check out our other College Football Week 4 game previews and best bets:

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 4 College Football Power Rankings >>

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College Football Week 4 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Kentucky vs. Northern Illinois

Kentucky is going to control this game, and I expect it to be a bit of a slog, specifically as this game wraps up. Kentucky shouldn’t have a problem scoring. Northern Illinois has given up at least 27 points to each of their three opponents, and the low total was to Eastern Kentucky. EKU is an 0-3 FCS team that didn’t match that total in their other two games against FCS opponents. NIU has put up some points so far, scoring at least 29 points in each of those three games. Unfortunately, the NIU offense took a hit when starting QB Rocky Lombardi left with a knee injury last week against Vanderbilt. Lombardi’s status is up in the air for this weekend, but it seems likely they’ll either have their starter at less than 100% or a backup QB against a top 10 team. 

I have said many times, including in the last game, that many teams get in rhythm against an opponent they are heavily favored against, as is the case here. I don’t think Kentucky will keep their starters on the field deep into the game if it turns into a blowout, as they will be traveling to face Ole Miss in Oxford next week. Will Levis hasn’t been crisp this season with 4 INTs already and one in each game, and the Wildcats have been without one of their best offensive players in RB Chris Rodriguez, who is supposed to return next week.

Kentucky could beat NIU so badly that they cover the majority of this total, but they have played worse teams than NIU, and none of their three games have hit this total. Kentucky not being crisp, an injured starting QB for NIU, and the fact the Wildcats will want to keep the starters healthy for a road SEC game next week all add up to me loving the under in this one!

Bet: Under 53.5 (-108 on FanDuel)

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College Football, Game Previews, Picks