College Football Week 7: Early Lines, Odds & Predictions (2022)

Here’s an early look at College Football Week 6 spreads and totals, along with my projections. We’ll run through significant injuries affecting spreads and hit on games you might want to consider betting early in the week due to expected line movement.

In the box below are my adjusted spreads for this weekend's games. ATL stands for "Adjusted Thor Line." Spreads are from the home team’s perspective, i.e., a negative number means the home team is favored. In the value column, a negative number indicates points of value on the spread for the home team, while a positive number indicates points value on the away team. ATT stands for "Adjusted Thor Total." Projected totals are based on 2021 data and do not account for personnel or schematic changes (i.e., bring that with you to your handicap)

Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 7 College Football Power Rankings >>

Away	Home	ATL	Spread	Value	ATT	Total	Day	CST
Louisiana	Marshall	-8.5	-10.5	2.0	43	47.5	Wednesday	6:30 PM
Baylor	West Virginia	5.3	3.5	1.8	57.5	54.5	Thursday	6:00 PM
Temple	UCF	-26.3	-23.5	-2.8	41.5	46	Thursday	6:00 PM
Navy	SMU	-14.1	-13.5	-0.6	59	57	Friday	6:30 PM
UTSA	Florida International	28.8	32	-3.2	58	63.5	Friday	7:00 PM
Penn St.	Michigan	-10.1	-7	-3.1	54	51.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Auburn	Ole Miss	-14.9	-14.5	-0.4	51.5	54.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Iowa St.	Texas	-15.9	-16.5	0.6	52.5	49.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Kansas	Oklahoma	-6.6	-7.5	0.9	71.5	64.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Central Michigan	Akron	14.0	13.5	0.5	61.5	58.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Miami (OH)	Bowling Green	8.4	6.5	1.9	55.5	47.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Minnesota	Illinois	3.9	6.5	-2.6	44	39	Saturday	11:00 AM
Old Dominion	Coastal Carolina	-12.1	-12.5	0.4	59.5	56.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Miami (FL)	Virginia Tech	8.1	7.5	0.6	54.5	47.5	Saturday	11:30 AM
Buffalo	Massachusetts	15.4	16.5	-1.1	52	46.5	Saturday	12:00 PM
California	Colorado	13.4	14.5	-1.1	41.5	48.5	Saturday	1:00 PM
Connecticut	Ball St.	-8.2	-9.5	1.3	46	46.5	Saturday	1:00 PM
Vanderbilt	Georgia	-37.4	-38.5	1.1	56	58	Saturday	2:30 PM
Alabama	Tennessee	8.8	7.5	1.3	76.5	65.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Oklahoma St.	TCU	-1.9	-3.5	1.6	67.5	68	Saturday	2:30 PM
Maryland	Indiana	14.3	11	3.3	56.5	61.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
North Carolina St.	Syracuse	0.2	-4	4.2	50	44	Saturday	2:30 PM
Arkansas	Brigham Young	-1.9	-1.5	-0.4	70	61	Saturday	2:30 PM
Texas St.	Troy	-14.3	-16	1.7	48	48.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Ohio	Western Michigan	-4.6	-1	-3.6	63	60	Saturday	2:30 PM
Northern Illinois	Eastern Michigan	-2.2	-2.5	0.3	74	63	Saturday	2:30 PM
Charlotte	UAB	-26.6	-24	-2.6	66	62.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Kent St.	Toledo	-13.2	-9	-4.2	69	62	Saturday	2:30 PM
Western Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	6.3	7.5	-1.2	71	66.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Tulane	South Florida	13.5	11	2.5	53	54.5	Saturday	3:00 PM
Louisiana Tech	North Texas	-6.0	-6.5	0.5	70	70.5	Saturday	3:00 PM
Wisconsin	Michigan St.	3.7	7.5	-3.8	54	48	Saturday	3:00 PM
James Madison	Georgia Southern	7.1	10.5	-3.4	55.5	63.5	Saturday	3:00 PM
Louisiana-Monroe	South Alabama	-16.2	-17	0.8	56.5	53.5	Saturday	4:00 PM
Arizona	Washington	-17.9	-16	-1.9	59	71.5	Saturday	4:30 PM
Rice	Florida Atlantic	-4.7	-4	-0.7	54	56	Saturday	5:00 PM
LSU	Florida	1.7	-2.5	4.2	60.5	48.5	Saturday	6:00 PM
Utah St.	Colorado St.	5.9	11	-5.1	56	48	Saturday	6:00 PM
Arkansas St.	Southern Miss	-7.9	-4	-3.9	52	56	Saturday	6:00 PM
Clemson	Florida St.	6.2	3.5	2.7	52	51	Saturday	6:30 PM
Stanford	Notre Dame	-16.9	-16.5	-0.4	52	52.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Memphis	East Carolina	-4.5	-4.5	0.0	60.5	59.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Nebraska	Purdue	-12.8	-14	1.2	64.5	58.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Mississippi St.	Kentucky	2.9	7	-4.1	58.5	47	Saturday	6:30 PM
USC	Utah	-4.3	-3.5	-0.8	63.5	60.5	Saturday	7:00 PM
New Mexico	New Mexico St.	7.2	6.5	0.7	48.5	37.5	Saturday	7:00 PM
North Carolina	Duke	5.5	7	-1.5	79	66.5	Saturday	7:00 PM
Washington St.	Oregon St.	-2.6	-3.5	0.9	58	52.5	Saturday	8:00 PM
Air Force	UNLV	6.1	9	-2.9	56	53	Saturday	9:30 PM
San Jose St.	Fresno St.	2.5	8.5	-6.0	46	49.5	Saturday	9:45 PM
Nevada	Hawai’i	8.8	6	2.8	67.5	48.5	Saturday	10:59 PM

Texas A&M (bye)

The Aggies have a fortunately-scheduled bye this weekend.

On Saturday, A&M gave Alabama everything it could handle but fell 24-20. A&M QB Haynes King, who started the first two games of the season before getting benched, completed 25-of-46 passes for 253 yards and a pair of TD with an INT in his return to the starting lineup.

King was replacing QB Max Johnson, who will likely miss the rest of the season with a broken bone in his throwing hand. Though King played the full game, he suffered a foot injury during it, according to HC Jimbo Fisher.

With the bye on deck, King has two weeks to heal before the South Carolina game. If he's not ready, A&M would turn to five-star true freshman QB Conner Weigman.

Oklahoma (-7.5) vs. Kansas
ATL: OU -6.6

Decimated by injury on Saturday, Oklahoma was demoralized by Texas on the field 49-0.

OU QB Dillon Gabriel sat out with a concussion. Injuries also withheld safeties, Billy Bowman and Damond Harmon. In the days leading up to the game, LB Shane Whittier was announced out for the year with a left shoulder injury.

OU HC Brent Venables has expressed optimism that Gabriel will return this weekend against Kansas. Gabriel might be worth 10 points on the spread for OU - his status is enormous for this handicap. My adjusted number above is with Gabriel - if he's out, I'd favor Kansas. The drop-off to Davis Beville is that large.

The interesting thing about Venables' public optimism about Gabriel's status is it would seem to contradict the old Oklahoma policy of a mandatory two-week sit-out period for a confirmed concussion diagnosis. I will do more digging this coming week to ascertain if Venables' regime has done away with that policy or if a loophole is available (if, say, Gabriel wasn't officially medically diagnosed - though Gabriel being in the concussion protocol would seemingly contradict that).

OU's health outlook on the defensive side is also not the best. Without OU S Bowman prowling deep, Texas had no problem hunting for the long ball. Venables has already said Bowman is out this weekend.

Meanwhile, Venables was terrified of LB depth publicly before Shane Whittier's injury. The Sooners' depth is now in a perilous spot and is down to four active, healthy linebackers on scholarship. One walk-on was already being used off the bench.

Venables is famous for replacer concepts (disguising blitzes/coverages by having defenders "replace" a blitzer or someone replacing someone else, which causes confusion post-snap for young quarterbacks and puts pressure on offensive lines because heat can come from any direction). He gives his linebackers lots of responsibility.

Inexperience and a dearth of talent among healthy OU linebackers will be a problem for the rest of the season. For the obvious reason, and also because it's either going to stretch the remaining healthy LB to play the way Venables traditionally wants to play, or Venables will be forced to go vanilla, neutering his long-time schematic advantage on defense.

The Jayhawks also have a quarterback injury to monitor. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels suffered a throwing shoulder injury against TCU. His status is currently unknown. Daniels' backup, Jason Bean, lit up TCU off the bench in the second half, going 16-for-24 for 262 yards, four TD, and one INT.

Bean started in 2020 at North Texas and also started the first nine games for KU last season before suffering an injury. Bean has a solid arm, and he's a former Texas prep track star who is one of the fastest players on the team (some, including Bean himself, believe he's the fastest).

As crazy as this sounds in lieu of Daniels' great start... Bean isn't much of a downgrade. That's not a knock on Daniels. Bean is just one of the FBS' best backup quarterbacks.

Long story short: Arrow way down on OU defense. Monitor the QB statues on both sides. Gabriel-to-Beville is worth around 10 points to OU. Daniels-to-Bean is maybe worth a point to KU.

Kansas is a live underdog.

Brigham Young (-1.5) vs. Arkansas
ATL: BYU -1.9

Arkansas was without QB KJ Jefferson due to a head injury on Saturday against Mississippi State and, not surprisingly, lost 40-17. HC Sam Pittman came clean on Sunday, saying that it was never the plan to play Jefferson against the Bulldogs. Which is another way of saying Jefferson was ruled out early in the week (despite Pittman saying on gameday that Jefferson was active and ready to go).

But the Hogs announced on Monday that Jefferson has been cleared for Saturday's game against BYU. That's a significant development.

As we saw over the weekend, Arkansas QB2 Cade Fortin is not playable. The Hogs moved Malik Hornsby back to QB from WR last week. The offense only moved against MSU when Hornsby was taking snaps. If I were Pittman, Hornsby would remain QB2 for the rest of the campaign.

Air Force (-9) at UNLV
ATL: AF -6.1

This line is slightly deflated due to questions about UNLV QB Doug Brumfield's status. Brumfield was knocked out of Friday's 40-7 loss to San Jose State in the first quarter with what appeared to be a leg injury.

UNLV has not yet provided an update on Brumfield's status. QB2 Cameron Friel, who went 15-of-22 for 153 yards against SJSU, will start against Air Force if Brumfield can't go.

Mississippi State (-7) at Kentucky
ATL: MSU -2.9

Kentucky QB Will Levis missed Saturday’s game versus South Carolina with turf toe, an injury he suffered the week prior. Kentucky's offense badly sputtered in a 24-14 loss, with QB2 Kaiya Sheron making his starting debut.

If Levis were active and 100 percent for Saturday, this game would be a coin flip. If Levis is out, the fair line should be Mississippi State by double-digits.

For now, Kentucky is only calling Levis "day-to-day." Oftentimes, Levis's injury keeps a player out for two weeks. When a player can come back after missing only one game, he has to play through painful symptoms.

That means that if Levis is active, you can assume that he'll be deprived of his mobility, and there might not be as much hum on his passes, planting from a compromised base.

I purchased a speculative Mississippi State ticket on Sunday when the lines dropped. Kentucky is in a bad spot until Levis returns to full health.

North Carolina (-7) at Duke
ATL: UNC -5.5

Duke WR1 Jalon Calhoun left Saturday's 23-20 loss to Georgia Tech in the second half with an undisclosed injury. With Calhoun down, Duke WR Jordan Moore was pounded with 16 targets. Prop bettors should tuck that nugget into the back of their minds for later this week if Calhoun is ruled out for UNC.

Duke's defense had a highly-disappointing showing against Georgia Tech, allowing over 400 yards, but it played with a decimated LB corps that should be shored up for UNC. Duke LB Dorian Mausi returned from injury but came off the bench - he could be a full-go this weekend. Fellow starting LB Shaka Heyward got ejected for targeting late in the first half, neutering Duke's second level.

The Blue Devils will need all the help they can get against UNC's powerful offense.

Miami (FL) (-7.5) at Virginia Tech
ATL: Miami -8.1

In Mario Cristobal’s first season, Miami was expected to have a strong offensive line. Instead, it's been up-and-down due to injuries. More came on Saturday against UNC.

Preseason All-American LT Zion Nelson missed the first two games with a knee injury. He worked off the bench against Texas A&M and then suffered a reported "setback" that has kept him out of the last two games. It's unclear when he will return.

Which made Miami's OL injuries against UNC all the more devastating. In the second quarter, C Jakai Clark and RG Justice Oluwaseun were knocked out of the game on consecutive plays. According to Cristobal, Oluwaseun "hurt himself pretty good," while "Jakai is going to be OK."

So it looks like the Canes could be down Nelson and Oluwaseun against Va Tech. If there's good news, it's that Miami got back several contributors from injury in the UNC game, including RB Henry Parrish, RB Jaylan Knighten, and CB Tyrique Stevenson.

Alabama (-7.5) at Tennessee
ATL: Bama -8.8

Alabama QB Bryce Young sat out Saturday's win over Texas A&M with a right shoulder injury. In some gamesmanship from Nick Saban, Young was announced as the starting quarterback on the PA system but never entered the game.

Young has an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder of unknown severity. This is what Saban said on Monday: “Hopefully, we’re going to try to get him ready to play this week. But this is something nobody can predict how quickly he’ll get an opportunity to do what he needs to do.”

Alabama redshirt freshman QB2 Jalen Milroe threw for three TD but also committed three turnovers against A&M. Saban didn't sound super pleased with Milroe's performance in the narrow victory:

“I don’t think [Milrow] allowed himself to let his training sort of guide him and trust and believe in it so he can succeed in executing plays,” Saban said. “You can’t turn the ball over and not execute plays like they’re designed. So those things are all things that we definitely need to improve on.”

Meanwhile, Tennessee WR1 Cedric Tillman didn't play against LSU in his ongoing recovery from a high-ankle sprain. Tillman underwent surgery shortly after suffering the injury against Florida on Sept. 24. The Alabama game was always his target return date - but it's an optimistic one.

We'll have to closely monitor Young and Tillman’s status this week. My adjusted line above is in a reality where both teams are full-strength. Young is worth around 10 points on the spread. Tillman is worth a point or two. If Young is out and Tillman is in, I'd actually favor Tennessee outright.

Minnesota (-6.5) at Illinois
ATL: Minny -3.9

Illinois QB Tommy DeVito was knocked out of Saturday's 9-6 win over Iowa with a lower-leg injury. The Illini have thus far declined to clarify his status or indicate if they believe DeVito or Artur Sitkowski - the QB2 who finished out the Iowa game - will start against the Gophers. Sitkowski is a downgrade from DeVito. But not an enormous one.

It looks like the Illini might be without top WR Isaiah Williams against Minnesota after Williams suffered a concussion against Iowa. Consider Williams doubtful until we hear otherwise.

Clemson (-3.5) at Florida State
ATL: Clemson -6.2

Clemson DT Bryan Bresee missed his second-consecutive game on Saturday against Boston College with a non-football medical issue. Clemson HC Dabo Swinney said Breese received positive news about his condition last week and is now working to get back into game shape with an eye on returning against FSU. Stay tuned.

On the other side, FSU RB Treshaun Ward is iffy for this weekend after suffering a shoulder injury against North Carolina State over the weekend. Ward posted an Instagram picture from the hospital bed. His arm is in a sling.

FSU HC Mike Norvell said this about Ward's status for this weekend: “We’ll see as the week goes on with him. Tre is extremely tough, his durability is something that has been such a strength, and he’s been such a constant impact on us. We’ll see as this week goes on. He will do everything in his power to be available, but we’ll see as things play out throughout the week.”

Doesn't exactly sound promising. If Ward is ruled out, Lawrence Toafili and Trey Benson will split the Seminoles’ rushing usage.

Troy (-16) vs. Texas State
ATL: Troy -14.3

Troy starting QB Gunnar Watson missed Saturday's 27-10 win over Southern Miss with an undisclosed injury. Watson suffered the injury the previous week against Western Kentucky.

Former Bowling Green and West Virginia QB Jarret Doege helped spur the Trojans to a comeback win over WKU off the bench after replacing Watson, and he bagged the win on Saturday against USM.

Troy is one of the few teams in the country where you don't downgrade them whatsoever between QB1 and QB2. In fact, I believe Doege should be the starter. (Doege didn't have much of a chance to win the gig out of camp after transferring over very late in the summer after failing to win WKU's starting job).

Syracuse (-4) vs. North Carolina State
ATL: Syracuse -0.2

NC State QB Devin Leary left Saturday's win over FSU with an injury to his throwing arm/shoulder. HC Dave Doeren said Monday that Leary’s injury was not season-ending. That was the good news.

The bad news is that Doeren said he didn't have a timeline for Leary's return. “It’s a rehabable injury,” Doeren said. “It’s a day-to-day thing. … There’s no timeline. It could be this week, or it could be six weeks.”

Doeren went on to say that all questions about Leary’s status would be ignored moving forward. Why would you say that if Leary had even an outside shot of playing this weekend? Sure sounds like Leary is looking at an extended absence, doesn't it? That would leave the starting job to veteran backup Jack Chambers in the interim.

While NC State appears to have gotten bad news on Leary, it looks like they got good news on RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye and WR Devin Carter. Contrast Doeren's verbiage and tone above with his soundbite on Sumo-Karngbaye and Carter's statuses: “It looks good for both,” Doeren said. “Just that time of the year. … I expect both to play at Syracuse.”

In contrast to NC State, Syracuse is fresh as a daisy. The Orange are basically coming off two-straight bye weeks. Two weeks ago, Syracuse beat FCS Wagner before going on their official bye week.

Oregon State (-3.5) vs. Washington State
ATL: OSU -2.6

Wazzu HC Jake Dickert said starting WR Renard Bell and starting RB Nakia Watson will both miss significant time with injuries suffered in Saturday's 30-14 loss to USC.

Bell was seen in a sling after the game. After leaving the game, Watson returned to the sidelines in street clothes, but the team didn't address his injury.

Dickert has ruled both out for this weekend at least, but the Cougars' HC says both Bell and Watson will return this season. Look for Tsion Nunnally, Leyton Smithson, and Robert Ferrel to get more opportunities until Bell's return. Watson's absence opens more field opportunities for Jaylen Jenkins and Kannon Katzer.

Thor's early-week tickets:

San Jose State (-7) at Fresno State
Baylor (-3) at West Virginia
Kansas (+7.5) at Oklahoma
Tennessee (+7.5) at Alabama
Mississippi State (-6) at Kentucky

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