College Football Week 9 Early Picks & Predictions (2025)

The Big Ten now reigns supreme, with Ohio State and Indiana sitting atop the latest AP Poll. Ole Miss, Miami (FL), and Texas Tech were all handed their first loss in 2025, muddying up the College Football Playoff picture.

My College Football Week 8 Early Picks & Predictions (2025) finished 2-1 as a profitable outing. Vanderbilt covered -2.5 at home against LSU during its biggest win of the year and Missouri won outright as a moneyline underdog against Auburn in its first road game of the season. The lone loss was Tennessee +8.5, getting rolled 37-20 by Alabama.

Let’s dive into early line movement to find three best bets to place ahead of college football’s Week 9 slate. Follow me on X @Matt_MacKay for betting analysis and free picks.

College Football Week 9 Picks & Early Line Movement

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Ole Miss (8) vs. Oklahoma (13)

John Mateer and the Oklahoma Sooners will host Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss Rebels in Norman on Saturday at noon ET. Each team is riding a different type of momentum wave into this SEC matchup.

Ole Miss lost its first game of the season in a back-and-forth shootout against Georgia. The Rebels couldn’t hold onto a fourth quarter lead and now find themselves back on the road against a stout Oklahoma defense. The Sooners just routed South Carolina, 26-7, beating the Gamecocks soundly on the road in Week 8.

The point spread opened at Oklahoma -2.5 and has since moved to -4.5. The point total has climbed from 50.5 to 52.5, likely due to Ole Miss averaging 37.4 points per game in 2025.

Mateer’s health is clearly affecting his rushing ability that we saw earlier in the season. However, Oklahoma RB Tory Blaylock is more than capable of exploiting Ole Miss’ run defense, allowing 4.7 YPC and eight total rushing touchdowns to SEC opponents.

Oklahoma’s defense under head coach Brent Venables is elite. The Sooners may be too much for Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss to overcome, allowing a 57 percent completion rate, three total passing touchdowns and only one opponent, Auburn, with more than 200 passing yards.

Let’s back the better defense in this game with home field advantage and bet on Oklahoma -4.5 before this line gets more inflated.

Pick: Oklahoma -4.5 (-110)

Missouri (15) vs. Vanderbilt (10)

We’ve got a fun matchup in Nashville when Vanderbilt hosts Missouri on Saturday afternoon’s 3:30 p.m. ET slate. The Commodores just beat a top-ten opponent, LSU, 31-24 with QB Diego Pavia leading the way with his dual-threat ability. Now, Vanderbilt hosts a Missouri Tigers offense ranked 12th in the nation for points per game.

Beau Pribula has emerged as a high-tier quarterback under Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz. Pribula struggled on the road against Auburn, throwing two interceptions and no touchdowns, while finding the end zone once with his legs.

Vanderbilt’s defense is leaky, allowing a 67 percent completion rate. Its run defense has played well so far, holding opponents to 3.4 YPC and three total rushing touchdowns. The Commodores will have a big challenge stopping Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy, who grinded out two touchdowns on 25 touches during an overtime win against Auburn.

These teams mirror each other fairly well. In the end, it’s going to be Missouri’s defense that plays better, with Pribula and Hardy dicing the Commodores to put them behind schedule. Let’s grab the points since they are through a key number and bet Missouri +3.0, as the Tigers seek their second straight road win.

Pick: Missouri +3 (-115)

South Florida (18) vs. Memphis

We’re heading to the American Conference for a noon ET kickoff between No. 18 South Florida and Memphis. Despite being unranked, the Tigers have an impressive resume this season. Memphis is 6-1 and sits 14th in points per game (38.1) and 25th in points allowed per game (18.3), meaning USF has to earn this win as a road favorite.

USF head coach Alex Golesh has transformed the Bulls into a high-quality program during his three-year tenure. Led by QB Byrum Brown, who is USF’s leading rusher with 475 yards and six touchdowns, along with 16 passing touchdowns, the Bulls have bounced back from their blowout loss to Miami (FL) a few weeks ago.

These opponents have much different strength of schedules. Memphis is 122nd out of 136 FBS teams, compared to USF’s 59th SOS ranking. The Bulls beat Florida in Gainesville, shut down Boise State, routed undefeated North Texas on the road, then racked up 522 yards of offense against Florida Atlantic in Week 8.

Memphis inexplicably lost to UAB, 31-24, on the road in Week 8. The Tigers couldn’t stop the pass and allowed 5.3 YPC, which bodes well for Brown and the Bulls. Let’s lay -3.5 on USF to hand Memphis its first home loss in 2025.

Pick: South Florida -3.5 (-112)