Introducing the Week 5 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 5 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Commanders vs. Browns.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 5 Betting Primer>>
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders
Sides:
- The Browns have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.
- The Browns have won eight of their last 12 games as favorites and 9-5 as a favorite.
- The Browns are 6-7-1 ATS in their last 14 road appearances as underdogs. 4-1 as home underdogs.
- Deshaun Watson is 61% ATS as an underdog (40% ATS as a favorite).
- The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 10 games. They are 3-0 ATS and straight up in their last three games.
- The Commanders have lost seven of their last eight home games.
- The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as favorites.
Totals:
- Ten of the Browns’ last 12 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of the Browns’ last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Eight of the Browns' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Browns are 12-9-1 toward the over in their last 21 games.
- Nine of the Commanders' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- When Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 5-1 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 12-3 toward the OVER. The Browns have a 20-point implied team total.
- Per Covers.com, Cleveland has finished under their team total in every game this season.
Overall:
This matchup is between two teams that couldn't be going in more different directions. Everybody loves Jayden Daniels and this Commanders group. As for Deshaun Watson and the Browns ... I rest my case.
The line reflects this with Washington’s 3.5-point home favorite status. Washington is 1-0 at home this season, defeating the Giants 21-18 despite scoring zero touchdowns.
The Browns offense remains banged up, but reinforcements may be on the horizon. Tight end David Njoku might have a chance to play. Tackles Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wils might also return.
Unless Cleveland can get its offensive line healthy ahead of Week 5, Watson will continue to be pressured at an absurd rate. He has been sacked 19 times this season, by far the most of any quarterback.
Because in the time he isn't pressured - or buys time with his legs by escaping the pocket - it's pretty easy to see him having a productive day passing against a horrible Washington secondary.
The Browns rank fourth overall in pass rate over expectation this season (+4%). As for the Commanders’ offense … why wouldn't we see them continue to cook?
The Commanders’ offense ranks first overall in EPA/play. First in EPA/pass and EPA/run. They can throw it and run it at an elite level. The numbers are slightly boosted by the opponents they have faced - Bengals, Cardinals, Giants, etc. - but it's impressive nonetheless from a rookie QB-led offense.
Cleveland's defense tends to play worse on the road than at home, and their tackling has been miserable. Per Next Gen Stats, the Browns defense has converted on a league-low 83.1% of tackling opportunities this season. They have surrendered 258 yards due to missed tackles, 2nd-most in the NFL behind the Eagles (269 yards). The Commanders’ skill players (RB, WR, TE) have forced a missed tackle on 24.1% of their combined touches this season, the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.
Commanders No. 1 WR, Terry McLaurin, projects to match up with Browns right CB Martin Emerson. No cornerback has a worse PFF pass coverage grade than Emerson (37.2) this season. McLaurin runs almost all of his routes exclusively from the left side of the offensive formation. His targets have also increased by two every week, dating back to Week 1.
I don't think that this Browns defense is the TRUE test for the Commanders offense, even if it's slightly tougher than their last two opponents. And although the headlines are about Daniels' passing, I think the Commanders rushing offense (which does also include the rookie quarterback), can dominate this matchup. Cleveland's run defense ranks fourth in most rushing yards allowed after contact per attempt.
The sharps are all over the Brownies at +3.5, given how much these lines have changed since last week (CLE -2.5). I don't like picking sides with two mobile QBs and shaky offensive lines creating more variance than I feel comfortable gambling on. I'm also 0-2 backing the Browns the last two weeks (regression?). The hook also moves me away from the backing of the nation's capital.
For all the criticism Watson receives (deservedly so) he did play one of his best games of the season against the Raiders, which the box score doesn't quite capture. He could have two big TD passes to Cooper and the interception wasn't his fault. He posted PFF's second-highest passing grade in Week 4.
I liked the over at 43.5 earlier this week in this matchup, and I'm sticking to it.
Props:
Deshaun Watson has passed for at least 21 pass completions in four straight games. He's gone over this number in seven of his last 10 games dating back to the start of last season. Quarterbacks who have faced the Commanders this season have averaged over 21.5 completions per game.
Per Next Gen Stats, Amari Cooper has totaled 335 air yards on targets that fell incomplete this season, most of any receiver. Watson has completed just 2 of 13 passes over 10 air yards when targeting Amari Cooper for 47 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Cooper also leads all receivers with -134 receiving yards over expected this season.
My Picks:
