This matchup is intriguing. The spread has changed by eight points since it opened, and there is a good reason why. New Orleans opened as the favorite in this game, but they have lost their last four games. The Dallas Cowboys have faired better the last few games they have played. That is why the spread has changed so much. Both of these plays will return along with Demarcus Lawrence. Before that, they lost to a Kansas City team that is starting to heat up. These are the reasons for the change of the spread so quickly. Let us peek into this matchup and see where the value truly lies.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
- Opening Lines: New Orleans Saints -3.5, Total 50
- Current Lines: Dallas Cowboys -4.5, Total 47.5
- Last Game: September 29, 2019, New Orleans Saints 12-10
The New Orleans Saints have had a rough year. Drew Brees leaving left them with a revolving door at quarterback. Jameis Winston left with a season-ending injury. Then Taysom Hill sustained a foot injury, forcing the Saints to use Trevor Siemian. Alvin Kamara has also been out the last three weeks. While Hill will be under center for New Orleans, it doesn’t seem like the questionable Kamara will be able to return. Still, Hill’s return could provide a spark to the Saints’ offense.
Dallas is getting a couple of guys back this game as well. Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are great receivers, but according to the numbers, the offense scores the same number of points without them. When these two guys are in the lineup, the offense is averaging 29 points per game. In the game the Cowboys played without these two, they scored 33 points. The stats say that the Saints returning players make more of an impact than the Cowboys returning players. That, along with Zeke’s knee injury, makes the Saints gain betting value in this matchup. The Saints are gaining all the betting value going into this game.
The spread has moved a lot. Going from a 3.5 point favorite to a 4.5 point underdog is a lot of movement. That movement gives the Saints betting value. The Saints also have a chance of getting two big impact players back, though it looks like Kamara will not be able to return. This game is a big swing for bettors to consider when betting on this game. I am giving the Saints a touchdown. That is in case one of the Cowboy’s big-play receivers reaches the end zone on a deep pass late in the game. Bettors will want to take the value in this game with the Saints returning players.
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