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Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds & Game Pick (2021)

by December 2, 2021
Patrick Mahomes

The Chiefs come into this matchup off their bye week, and have a strong rest advantage. Denver is coming off an upset win over a strong Chargers team in a game that really was never in question based on EDJ Sports Win Predictor. Both teams are still playing for the postseason, yet with the Chiefs being in a much more comfortable spot ( 83% chance of making it), while Denver is sitting at the outside looking in with a 28.4% chance.

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Ryan’s Season Totals

Assigned Games: 15-15-1 

Best Bets: 22-12, Up 1198%

Details

  • Opening Line: Kansas City -9.5
  • Current Line: Kansas City -10
  • Over/Under: 47.5
  • Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
  • Start Time: 8:20 PM EST, SUN 12/5
  • Last Meeting: Chiefs, 22, Broncos 16 in Kansas City in 2020 

Overview

Not to boast (says the guy that is required to show his Win/Loss record), but we were way ahead of the “relax, Mahomes will figure it out group” 4 weeks ago. Even when they were sitting at 3-4, we backed them and Mahomes in our best bets, citing:

“As you can see, when only looking at performance with a clean pocket, not much has changed from the 2020 Mahomes to the 2021 Mahomes. And note that performance from a clean pocket is far more predictive than performance from a pressured pocket.“

The Broncos have been a little tougher nut to crack. Clearly, “Teddy Covers” Bridgewater is at worst a step up (from Drew Lock) for a team that wants their defense to win games. Bridgewater has done a decent job of not losing games thus far this season. Tactically speaking, Bridgewater has always been a QB that can win within structure, similar to a Rams Jared Goff, and polar opposite of Baker Mayfield. You combine this with a strong defense, and you have a recipe for a 7 to 9 win team.

We believe the Mahomes train has too much momentum here, and shouldn’t have any issues with the Broncos. However the play we are really looking at in this game is the over, despite the market already raising it 1 point. There are 3 reasons for this. First, according to PFF this matchup contains the 5th highest net combined Offense vs. Defense grades (this usually means points). Second, also from PFF, this game matches up the two best net combined pass protection units, with both OLs boasting a double-digit advantage over the pass-rushing units of their opponents. And finally, according to SIS, both QBs have a higher positive play rate when blitzed, and both are playing defenses that blitz at a top 10 rate. All of this is not to mention the weather will be unseasonably warm in Kansas City this Sunday.

Trends

  • The Chiefs are 4-7 against the spread this season. 
  • The Broncos are 6-8 ATS in division games under Vic Fangio.
  • The UNDER is 9-2 in Denver’s 11 games this season.

Bottom Line

Overall, I like the Chiefs, especially at -9.5 (vs. -10), but I love the over here.

Prediction: Chiefs 35, Broncos 24

The Picks: Chiefs -9.5, OVER 47.5

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