Fresno State embarrassed UConn last week with a 45-0 win. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean Fresno State is good; it just means UConn is bad. That said, we’ll give Fresno State some credit. They covered the 27.5-point spread easily and handled UConn as expected. Meanwhile, Oregon will start the season ranked at No. 11. They’ll face Ohio State next week, so they could get caught looking forward here.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
- Opening Lines: Oregon -20.5; O/U 63
- Current ATS Line: Oregon -20.5
- Current Over/Under: 63
- Location: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021
- Start Time: 2 p.m. EST
- Television: PAC12
- Last Meeting: Oregon defeated Fresno State in 2012 under Chip Kelly, 42-25
Fresno State has a game under its belt. Last week seemed like more of a preseason game for Fresno State, but regardless, they got some live, regular-season action. Fresno State held UConn to just nine first downs all game, allowing them to post just 72 yards passing and 35 yards rushing. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs’ offense totaled 538 yards on offense behind 382 yards passing and 156 yards rushing.
On the other hand, Oregon comes into this season ranked as a top-25 team. They’re ranked as co-favorites for the Pac-12 with USC, but they won’t have Tyler Shough under center. With Shough off to Texas Tech, Anthony Brown Jr. will get the starting role for the Ducks. He has been with the Ducks for over 500 days, so he knows the system and has camaraderie with the players.
- Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Pac-12.
- Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
*Line movement analysis based on the DonBest Las Vegas betting market ticker*
Despite Fresno State’s 45-point drubbing of UConn, the spread hasn’t budged for this game.
Fresno State’s Jake Haener threw for 331 yards and three touchdowns as quarterback for the Bulldogs in last week’s win over UConn. Haener threw for 2,000-plus yards and 14 touchdowns last season while completing 64.7 percent of his passes. He makes good decisions with the ball, as he only threw five interceptions last year. That said, Fresno State will need a strong performance from Haener to even cover on Saturday.
Oregon’s Anthony Brown Jr. will start under center for the Ducks. Head coach Mario Cristobal has hyped up Brown’s ability to command the offense at the line of scrimmage. He has the legs to improvise and create plays out of nothing, too. Cristobal also praised Brown’s accuracy and his ability to make explosive play after explosive play in practice.
Even his own receiver, Mycah Pittman, is comparing Brown to Justin Herbert. Pittman said that Brown is a gunslinger and has one of the strongest arms he has ever seen. It makes sense that Brown, a senior with plenty of experience, will get a shot to start over some freshmen. Elsewhere on offense, running back C.J. Verdell will start his third season at running back for this group. Lastly, Oregon’s offensive line is always rock-solid, and they should give Brown plenty of time to make those accurate throws.
I’m not sold on Fresno State, and I’m not even sure their game against UConn helped them prepare. I’ll take Oregon to win by at least three touchdowns.
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