It is cliche to say that this is the best card of the year, especially after following UFC 294 but with two title fights featuring four fighters in the prime of their career, along with up-and-coming prospects and UFC veterans we are in for another phenomenal event. Let’s look at the prelims that are often underrated and overlooked. Let’s dive into Lupita Godinez vs. Tabatha Ricci.
UFC 295 Prelims Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions: Lupita Godinez vs. Tabatha Ricci
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at these compelling matchups!
Lupita Godinez (-170) vs. Tabatha Ricci (+142)
Lupita Godinez
- Dist Acc Off: 46.7%
- Dist Att/Min: 15.08
- Dist Def: 64%
- KD%: .3% (1 KD out of 319 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 29.7%
- Control % Def: 3.4%
Tabatha Ricci
- Dist Acc Off: 32.4%
- Dist Att/Min: 16.64
- Dist Def: 66%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 145 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 41.4%
- Control % Def: 1.1%
These two fighters are extremely similar in almost all facets. Ricci has an advantage in offensive control but is lacking in distance accuracy. Godinez is coming off her first KO/TKO in her UFC career. It was also her first knockdown ever. Ricci usually overwhelms her opponents with volume and pressure but that strategy will not work against Godinez who essentially has the same style but is significantly more accurate.
Bet: Lupita Godinez (-170)
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!