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Michigan State vs. Duke Odds, Spread, Pick and Predictions for 2022 NCAA Tournament

by March 19, 2022
Tom Izzo

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Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils Game Info

Michigan State Spartans (23-12, 11-9 Big Ten) vs. Duke Blue Devils (29-6, 16-4 ACC)

  • Date: Sunday, Mar. 20, 2022
  • Start Time: 5:15 p.m. ET
  • Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena — Greenville, SC
  • Coverage: CBS
  • Last Meeting: December 1, 2020 — Michigan State defeated Duke 75-69 in Durham.

Michigan State vs. Duke Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

  • Moneyline: MSU: (+215) | DUKE: (-270)
  • Point Spread: MSU: +6.5 (-110) | DUKE: -6.5 (-110)
  • Total: 144.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Betting Trends

  • Michigan State 2021-22 Betting Trends: 19-16 ATS; 19-15-1 to the Over
  • Duke 2021-22 Betting Trends: 17-16-2 ATS; 19-15-1 to the Over
  • Michigan State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games
  • Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games as underdogs
  • Duke is 0-5 ATS in its last five games
  • Duke is 0-7 ATS in its last seven NCAA Tournament games as favorites
  • The over is 6-1 in Michigan State’s last seven games
  • The over is 4-1 in Michigan State’s last five games as underdogs
  • The over is 6-1 in Duke’s last seven games


Is there a better storyline in the Round of 32 than Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski potentially coaching his last game against fellow Hall of Famer Tom Izzo? The two coaches have had great battles in the NCAA Tournament. Their first-ever meeting as head coaches was in the 1999 Final Four, and they also met in the 2019 Elite Eight with a trip to the Final Four on the line. Mike Krzyzewski is 98-30 all-time in the NCAA Tournament, and his .766 winning percentage ranks No. 1 among active coaches. Tom Izzo is fourth among coaches with at least 15 games coached in the NCAA Tournament with a 53-22 record (.707). Izzo and Krzyzewski have combined for 151 NCAA Tournament wins, the most combined wins for two opposing head coaches in tournament history.

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview

Michigan State’s 25th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance is second only to Kansas’ 32. While Tom Izzo is fourth among active coaches in overall winning percentage in the tournament, his .793 winning percentage in the second round and Elite Eight is an all-time best .793. Why is that significant? His 23-6 record came in games where there was a quick two-day turnaround, which means Izzo’s teams are usually difficult to prepare for on short rest, especially in March. The Spartans almost ruined their chance to make this dream matchup come true, as they edged No. 10 seed Davidson, by one point in the opening round. Spartans forward Joey Hauser scored a career-high 27 points, and Michigan State held off a furious rally from Davidson after they led by eight points with one minute to play. The win marked the 18th time in Michigan State’s last 24 tournament appearances where they won at least one game.

Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview

While Tom Izzo is a master in games on short rest, Mike Krzyzewski has owned Izzo in his coaching career, winning 12 of the 15 head-to-head matchups. Coach K was openly critical of his team’s poor defensive performances recently, but they responded with ten blocked shots and held Cal State Fullerton to just 37.5% shooting from the field. If the Blue Devils win, they keep the hopes that the West Region will advance all of its top four seeds to the Sweet 16.

Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils Betting Pick and Prediction

Despite Izzo’s poor coaching record against Krzyzewski, the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams. The previous month has seemingly been an emotional rollercoaster for the Blue Devils players, as it often seems sending out Coach K in style in his last season is a massive weight on their shoulders. The Blue Devils have struggled defensively all season, and they are not built to take advantage of Michigan State’s biggest weakness: turnovers. The Spartans turn the ball over on 19% of possessions (224th-worst), but Duke forces turnovers on just 16% (303rd-worst). And in Duke’s five losses during the regular season, the Blue Devils did not force more than five turnovers in any game.

This is too many points to give a team as talented as Michigan State, and we like for Izzo once again to prove why he is a master at coaching games on quick turnarounds.

Pick: Michigan State +6.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

College Basketball, March Madness, Picks, West Region