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Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans Odds & Game Pick (2021)

by October 26, 2021
Payton Thorne

If you’re not on your couch at 12:00, I’ll be judging you. The Michigan Wolverines will take on Michigan State Spartans in Spartan Stadium with both teams looking to stay undefeated on the season.

Even before we talk about this rivalry between these two Michigan teams, it should be stated that Michigan and Michigan State are both fighting for a perfect record, Big Ten Championship, and a chance at the College Football Playoff. A win in this game would help one the resumes of each team for the future.

Michigan State and Michigan weren’t nearly as dominant last year but have caught the attention of the entire college football world with undefeated records. It wasn’t too long ago when Michigan fans were considering and talking about the idea of firing Jim Harbaugh as head coach of the Wolverines.

Meanwhile, Michigan State head coach, Mel Tucker didn’t have such a positive debut last season for the Spartans. However, this year, things have changed and he’s got his Spartans in the top 10 and undefeated mid-way through the season.

In this large Big 10 rivalry, will Michigan or Michigan State get this gigantic win?

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  • Opening Line: Michigan -.6, O/U 52.5
  • Current Line: Michigan -3.5, O/U 51
  • Last meeting: October 31, 2020, Michigan State 27, Michigan 24


The Michigan Wolverines are scoring 37.7 points per game while allowing 14.3 points per game. The offense is averaging 442.9 yards per game with 253.3 yards coming from the ground game. The ground is led by Blake Corum who has 116 attempts for 729 yards and 10 touchdowns.

This, despite the run blocking performing just average this season for Corum and Co.

On the defensive end, Michigan has been elite, allowing just 299 yards per game. The pass rush has been as effective as ever for the Wolverines, which has held quarterbacks to just 182.4 yards passing per game. Meanwhile, Michigan is allowing just 116.6 yards per game on the ground.

On the other hand, the Spartans have a reliable quarterback this year behind sophomore Payton Thorne. He’s thrown for 1,701 yards and 15 touchdowns with just four interceptions. The run game along with Thorne has been excellent with over 200 yards per game thanks to Kenneth Walker III who has 997 yards on the ground with 152 attempts and nine touchdowns.

The Spartans have struggled a tiny bit tackling in space, but overall, the Spartans are doing just fine, allowing 18.7 points per game this season.

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  •  Spartans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
  •  Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
  •  Under is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Bottom Line 

Michigan State won last year in shocking fashion but neither team will shock the world with a win in this game. Both teams are expected to be in this game and play in a dog fight. However, Michigan does have a slight edge in this battle when it comes to the run game.

Michigan State is allowing 406.4 yards per game on the defensive end and over 120 yards rushing. The coverage has also allowed 285.4 yards per game this season as well.

The reality is, Michigan State is allowing too many yards to sustain allowing just 18.7 points per game. Michigan should be able to win by at least one score and potentially two. I know Michigan State is home, but there will be plenty of Michigan fans in the stands as well.

Give me the Wolverines in one could be one of the best games this season.

Pick: Michigan -4.5 (-110)

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Jason Radowitz is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @Jason_Radowitz.

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