This could be one of the most competitive MLB seasons in recent history. As of the end of competition on August 4th, 12 teams have 60+ wins, and 11 have odds of +1600 or shorter to win the World Series. But I can't help but wonder if there's a contender we aren't talking about, someone like the 2019 Washington Nationals.
Heading into the All-Star break during the 2019 season, the Nationals were 47-42 and out of playoff contention, but they won the World Series. Could we see a similar rise from obscurity this year?
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
- Top Bettor Picks for MLB
- MLB Player Futures Odds
- MLB World Series Futures Odds
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
MLB Futures Bets: 2025 World Series Longshots
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)
The Nationals had +2400 odds at the All-Star break that season, giving them a 4% chance of winning the World Series. As of August 1st, they had +3250 odds, which gave them a 2.99% shot. This season, two teams fit the profile - the Boston Red Sox and the Texas Rangers.
Boston Red Sox (+2200)
The odds for the Red Sox have been on the move since July 1st, when they were +6600. After going 11-1 in July heading into the All-Star break, they dipped down to +4000. Since the break, they've gone 10-6, improving to 63-51, good for second in the American League East (three games back of Toronto).
Their World Series odds now? Down to +2200. What changed?
Many of the early issues revolved around injuries and a questionable bullpen. There were doubts about the rotation coming into the season, and the bullpen had a frustrating knack for blowing leads. In a division with the Yankees and the emerging Blue Jays, Boston appeared to simply be the odd man out.
But then the roster started to get healthy, many of the young hitters started to step up, and the pitching improved, helping them make a move before the All-Star break. Since then, their overall level of play has improved. Pre-break, they had a run differential of +61; in 16 games post-break, it is already +20. They've also had the best ERA in baseball since the break at 3.20 (tied with Texas).
They'd be in the playoffs, were they to start today. As the 2019 Nationals (who were a Wild Card team) can attest, it doesn't matter how you get there, just that you do.
Texas Rangers (+3500)
As of July 1st, the Rangers’ odds to win the 2025 World Series sat at +5000, but after going 7-5 heading into the break, they were +6600. But after going 11-6 after the break to improve to 59-55 (4.5 games back of the Astros in the American League West), their World Series odds have moved to +3500.
The issues that have held the Rangers back are twofold: Injuries to the pitching staff and poor hitting. But despite not having guys like Nathan Eovaldi healthy at the time, the Rangers’ pitching staff still had the best ERA in the first half of the season (3.28).
Since the All-Star break, the pitching staff is still the best in the game (tied with Boston) with a 3.20 ERA. But one issue remains: They can't generate much offense. The Rangers averaged 4.05 runs per game before the break. Since then, there has been a slight improvement to 4.71 per game. But the team batting average is lower (.232 to .229).
If the playoffs were to start today, the Rangers would be left out (1.5 games back in the American League Wild Card race). But with how they are pitching, if they can find a little more offense, the Rangers could make some waves come October.
Should You Bet on These Teams?
That’s a question every bettor has to answer for themselves. But even a $10 bet would make for a nice payday ($230 or $360) if one of these two teams wins the World Series. Is that chance worth skipping your morning latte for a couple of days? I’d say yes, but like I said, every bettor has to answer that question on their own.
