The 2024 MLB season is over a month old and 17 teams are averaging at least one home run per contest. It’s a stat that has given sports bettors opportunities to cash a home run prop bet day after day. Here’s a look at three sluggers worth backing to launch a dinger on Monday, May 6.
MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Shohei Ohtani (+215)
Feel free to stop me if you have heard this before. Shohei Ohtani is tearing the cover off the baseball right now. The two-time MVP logged his first four-hit effort as a Dodger over the weekend and enters Monday with three home runs in his last two games. The LA star’s slash line now checks in at .364/.426/.685 through 35 games. An advantageous matchup against the woeful Miami Marlins (10-26 record) is next.
TWO HOMER DAY? BRAVO, SHOHEI. pic.twitter.com/doXseFxX0U
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) May 5, 2024
Rookie Roddery Munoz will take the mound for Miami in the series opener. He has allowed two home runs across his first two starts and has not been pushed past 82 pitches yet. That’s worth noting because even if the 24-year-old can fool Ohtani, he is backed up by a group of relievers that is tied for the fourth-most home runs allowed by an MLB bullpen (17). Don’t be shocked if Ohtani gets the crowd on its feet and takes the league lead with his 11th home run.
Willson Contreras (+400)
Willson Contreras has been a bright spot on an otherwise disappointing St. Louis offense. The veteran catcher boosted his slugging percentage to a team-high .539 with a 426-foot home run to center field on Sunday. On deck for Contreras is a showdown against Mets starter Sean Manaea who is struggling with his control in 2024. Manaea has posted a disastrous 14.1% walk percentage across six starts.
That high walk percentage means Contreras has a great shot to get into an early hitter’s count. After all, waiting for the right pitch has worked for him in the past. Contreras is 3-for-5 with two home runs and a double in five at-bats against Manaea. One homer went 382 feet to right field and the other 382 feet to left field. The Cardinals are desperate to get momentum back on their side and Contreras can do just that with one powerful swing.
J.D. Martinez (+440) and Jeff McNeil (+1100)
Let’s stay focused on Wednesday’s Mets-Cardinals clash and zero in on St. Louis starter Kyle Gibson. The righty has allowed at least one home run in four of his six starts and is pitching to a career-high 26.1% fly ball percentage. While that can be a good thing at times, it’s a bit worrisome at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals’ home field is a hitter-friendly environment as it ranks ninth among MLB stadiums in offensive park factors during the last three years.
J.D. Martinez and Jeff McNeil stick out as the most enticing options in a New York lineup that has loads of experience against Gibson. Martinez is slashing .294/.400/.500 with two home runs and a double in 34 at-bats versus the right-hander. Meanwhile, McNeil is slashing .368/.368/.789 with two home runs and two doubles in 19 at-bats. Double dip for a chance at a considerable payout.
