The MLB rolls out a 15-game schedule tonight, which in turn provides us with a plethora of sports betting choices. I'm looking to nail a few longshot prop bets in the MLB, and below you'll find my top home run prop bets. Here are three players who are primed to go yard tonight.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Let's get things started in Tampa Bay, where the red-hot Rays (40-32), who are 19-6 in their last 25 games, host the Orioles (30-41) in a divisional clash. Dean Kremer heads to the bump for the O's, while the Rays opt for Zack Littell. First pitch is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. ET from Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, FL.
Gunnar Henderson has been raking this month, slashing .373/.429/.471 over 51 at-bats. He only has one home run in the 14-game sample size, but I think he's set up nicely to hit for power tonight in Tampa. The shortstop is up to eight bombs (96th) this season, and he's homering once every 31.5 at-bats (99th).
Mostly, I like the head-to-head success that Henderson has found against Tampa's Zack Littell. He's 7-for-15 (.467) against him with two tanks and a double. With this level of flourishing, I'm playing him to go for 2+ hits, runs, & RBI (-170), as well as sprinkling on the Baltimore hitter to go yard. Littell has been serviceable this season with a 3.84 ERA, but he has been susceptible to the longball, posting an elevated 2.18 HR/9 rate. Give me Henderson to hit a home run.
The Red Sox (38-36) secured a 2-0 series-opening victory over the Mariners (36-35) on Monday, and they'll turn to Walker Buehler to try and keep things rolling. The M's counter with Bryan Woo in this American League showdown, which gets underway at 9:40 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA.
Seattle's Cal Raleigh has been crushing baseballs this season. He leads the MLB in home runs (26) and ranks third in OPS (.975). Raleigh's homering once every 10.0 at-bats, which is the best mark in baseball.
Raleigh has found success against Walker Buehler in the past, going 2-for-3 (.667) against him with a double. Buehler hasn't been great in 2025, registering a 5.01 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. Most importantly, he owns a 1.78 HR/9 rate, and his 19.3% HR/FB percentage is the second-highest amongst today's starting pitchers. There's typically not much value to be found in the home run prop market, but when weighing a +260 payout with the league leader in home runs against some of Buehler's underlying numbers, this turns out to be a worthwhile wager.
It was the Athletics (30-44) who notched a 3-1 win over the Astros (41-31) on Monday, improving to 4-0 in their last four games. This divisional contest pits Jason Alexander against JP Sears in the pitching department. First pitch is slated for 10:05 p.m. ET from Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, CA.
Jose Altuve launched a home run in last night's 3-1 defeat, giving him 11 homers (45th) on the year. I'm going right back to the 35-year-old to go yard tonight at +450. Altuve has been on fire over the last seven days, hitting two bombs while posting a .400 ISO and a .532 wOBA.
Altuve also has the head-to-head edge against the Athletics' JP Sears (5.08 ERA), as he's 9-for-22 (.409) against him with a couple of big flies and three doubles. That equates to a 1.277 OPS. The team as a whole is slashing .290/.320/.473 against the southpaw, so the Astros should have a solid night offensively. Also, the Over has gone 22-14 at Sutter Health Field, signaling that this is a hitter-friendly park. With the head-to-head numbers and the fact that Sears owns a 1.86 HR/9 rate, I absolutely love the +450 payout that comes with Altuve to touch 'em all.
