The 2025 MLB season rolls on with another full slate of games on Friday. With 15 matchups and all 30 teams to choose from, let's dive into the top MLB home run props, picks and predictions for Friday's action.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is a fun and alternative way to get action on MLB games. The plus-money odds can provide bigger payouts if you nail the right batter to go yard. Let's focus on a couple of MLB players worth backing to hit a homer on Friday, September 5.
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Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Alex Bregman (+630)
Let’s start with a longshot home run prop. Alex Bregman is in a bit of a power drought lately, having not homered since August 12. Yet, some trends and splits say that the Boston Red Sox third baseman could end that homerless streak tonight.
Arizona Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez has struggled to a 5.40 ERA and 1.62 WHIP this season. That includes a poor 5.69 ERA at home. He’s allowed 21 home runs over 24 starts, including 10 homers across his 10 home outings.
Meanwhile, Bregman is crushing lefties to the tune of a .355 batting average and .927 OPS this season. He's also been a better hitter on the road, with a .306 BA and .910 OPS away from Fenway. Bregman has had success against Rodriguez over their careers. He's hitting .296 with a 1.091 OPS in 31 at-bats vs. E-Rod. That's a big enough sample size to take notice. Plus, Bregman has three home runs and two doubles against the southpaw.
Lefties have hit Rodriguez better this season, but he's still giving up numbers to righties. The southpaw is allowing a .283 batting average and .828 OPS against right-handed hitters so far. There’s some clear value in Bregman to go deep here, especially considering those head-to-head numbers.
Colson Montgomery (+630)
After homering again on Thursday, Colson Montgomery continues to crush the ball. The Chicago White Sox rookie has now hit a home run in seven of his last 11 games entering tonight. He also has 17 homers in 50 games played this year. Let’s ride the hot bat until it cools off.
Montgomery will face Detroit Tigers starter Jack Flaherty on Friday. The right-hander has a 4.74 ERA this season with 22 home runs allowed across 27 starts. He’s also given up 15 homers over 15 home outings thus far. Flaherty had issues with the long ball last year as well, allowing 24 homers in 28 starts.
Meanwhile, the lefty-swinging Montgomery has hit 14 of his 17 homers against right-handed pitching. He also boasts a .606 slugging percentage and .909 OPS in the split. As for Flaherty, he’s been slightly worse against left-handed hitters. The veteran has allowed 12-of-20 homers in that split.
Then there’s the simple fact that we’re getting Montgomery at +450 odds to go deep. That’s a bargain with how well he’s swinging it right now. Back the rook to keep it going on Friday night.
