Five sluggers have reached the 45-home run mark as divisional races march on in the 2025 MLB season. Seattle’s Cal Raleigh finds himself at the top of the leaderboard with 54 jacks. The All-Star catcher isn’t the only one exhibiting a strong stroke at the plate. Here's a look at four players worth backing to launch a ball beyond the fence in Monday’s best MLB home run props & bets.
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Monday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Aaron Judge (+180)
There’s always a case for betting on Aaron Judge in this market, but especially on Monday. That is because Simeon Woods Richardson will be on the mound for the Twins. The young right-hander has surrendered a home run in six of his last eight starts and ranks outside the top 330 of qualified arms in barrel rate (11.7%). Keep in mind that opposing hitters have logged a 1.055 OPS when ahead in the count versus Woods Richardson this year.
Falling behind with Judge up to bat would be a disaster for Woods Richardson. The Yankees superstar sports the highest slugging rate in the American League when ahead in the count (.767). Overall, Judge leads all of baseball with an insane 24.8% barrel rate and now travels to a stadium where he has slashed .377/.476/.681 with 15 extra-base knocks across 18 career contests. The crowd at Target Field is in for an exciting show.
Matt Olson (+360) & Jurickson Profar (+450)
Let’s fade another pitcher with struggles in the long ball department. Washington’s Mitchell Parker toes the slab on Monday with at least one home run allowed in 16 of his most recent 20 starts. The southpaw has also posted dismal marks in hard-hit rate (50.8%), average exit velocity (92.3 miles per hour) and strikeout rate (14.7%). An inability to miss bats or induce soft contact is troublesome in a league packed with powerful pros.
Two names stick out in Atlanta’s lineup. First baseman Matt Olson boasts a top-12 hard-hit rate (53.8%) in the Majors and has racked up nine homers in 25 career trips to Nationals Park. Meanwhile, outfielder Jurickson Profar has guided the Braves with a .943 OPS over the last 30 days and is 1-for-2 with a dinger against Parker. Those in search of more bang for their buck could parlay both Braves to go yard at +2030 odds.
Harrison Bader (+400)
Talk about taking advantage of an opportunity. Harrison Bader has recorded an impressive .349/.406/.535 slash line with four home runs and 10 doubles since joining the Phillies at the trade deadline (38 games). Take note that the journeyman outfielder has been batting leadoff after Trea Turner suffered a hamstring strain. It is forcing opposing hurlers to attack Bader with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper looming behind him.
Emmet Sheehan draws the start for the Dodgers on Monday night. The 25-year-old righty has conceded six homers during his previous six outings and is yielding ground balls at a rate (32%) much lower than the MLB average. That is a dangerous trend at Dodger Stadium as the venue checks in third in Statcast’s offensive park factors this campaign. Expect Bader to sit on a slider (slugging .600 against the pitch) and tee off with a blast.
