It’s the final day of July. Let’s finish off the month with a bang. Here are three MLB home run props you’ll want to consider.
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Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chase DeLauter (+520)
Chase DeLauter has slugged a .296 ISO and a wOBA of .465 against his last 30 left-handed batters, despite being a lefty himself. He’s hit over 61% of hard contact and a 14.3% barrel rate, which currently leads the Guardians over the last 30 days against lefties.
Meanwhile, DeLauter is set to face lefty Mitch Bratt, who has allowed a .526 ISO and a .575 wOBA to his last 20 lefties. Bratt has allowed 33.3% fly balls over the last month, along with a 16.7% barrel rate. He’s also struck out just 5% of lefties over the last 30 days.
I tend to stay away from lefty-on-lefty matchups. But not this one. Take DeLauter at +520 odds to go deep.
CJ Abrams (+390)
CJ Abrams is one of the hottest hitters in the game. The left-handed slugger has added a .448 ISO and a wOBA of .524 against his last 67 righties this season. In addition, he’s limited strikeouts to 14.9% and has hit 40% of fly balls with an 18% barrel rate against righties.
Abrams will take on Bryce Elder of the Braves, who has allowed a .357 ISO and a wOBA of .361 against his last 31 lefties. Those lefties have hit 65% of hard contact and a 15% barrel rate. Though, Elder has still limited his last 31 lefties to a .176 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). If Elder continues to allow these types of numbers, he’ll pay for it sooner rather than later.
Let’s ride with Abrams at +390.
Rafael Devers (+350)
Rafael Devers was robbed of a home run yesterday. But he’s in play for another long ball tonight. The lefty has hit a .353 ISO and a wOBA of .451 against his last 85 righties. He’s also earned 36.4% of fly balls, 60% of hard contact and a 10.9% barrel rate against righties.
On the other hand, the Padres are sending German Marquez to the mound. He’s allowed a .333 ISO and a wOBA of .428 to his last 49 lefties. Those lefties have hit nearly 80% of hard contact and over 38% of fly balls against Marquez.
The Giants haven’t had a great season, but Devers has turned things around. Give him a chance at +350.
