It was a tough day for MLB home run props yesterday, with just 11 long balls coming from the full 15-game slate. Only two games (Braves-Angels and Reds-Marlins) featured multiple home runs.
With just six games on Thursday’s MLB slate, two of my home run picks come from the same game in what is projected to be one of the highest scoring contests of the day.
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Thursday’s Best Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Brent Rooker (+502)
Brent Rooker has just three career at-bats against Yankees southpaw Ryan Weathers, but he is also the only Athletics player who has homered off the lefty. Rooker entered yesterday with just a .580 OPS and a .324 slugging percentage, but has homered twice in the first 10 games.
Rooker’s home run numbers should continue since he is on pace for his highest fly ball rate of the last three seasons, while his 22.7% barrel rate is trending towards being his highest of any season.
Giancarlo Stanton (+280)
Among hitters with a minimum of 150 plate appearances since July 30th, 2025, the Yankees have three of the top seven hitters in the majors in terms of wRC+. Along with Aaron Judge (191 wRC+, first) and Ben Rice (176 wRC+, fifth), Giancarlo Stanton is seventh on that list (173 wRC+).
I would have looked Rice’s way as a wager if a right-handed hurler was on the mound, but with Paul Goldschmidt likely to man first base with a southpaw on the bump, I’m backing Stanton to homer even though he is 0-for-4 in his career against Jeffrey Springs.
Stanton started the season with five consecutive multi-hit games, and these are great home run odds for a player who is consistently among the daily leaders in top exit velocities.
Top Exit Velocities: April 5th, 2026
Katel Marte: 116.9 Mph ?"?
Giancarlo Stanton: 116.3 Mph
Giancarlo Stanton: 115.2 Mph
Shohei Ohtani: 114.6 Mph
Cam Smith: 112.1 MphOf 852 Batted Balls Yesterday, 349 of them were hit 95+ Mph 🤯
— Barrels&Bytes (@BarrelsandBytes) April 6, 2026
Trevor Larnach (+780)
Trevor Larnach figures to be atop the Twins lineup today with a right-handed pitcher on the mound, as he has just one at-bat against a southpaw this year. Though Minnesota entered this series with the second-lowest OPS from its 2-3-4 hitters, it has a great chance to improve upon these numbers despite Flaherty not surrendering a home run in 8.1 innings this season.
Larnach is 2-for-3 with a home run in a small sample size against Flaherty. The righty's 37.5% line drive rate allowed is on pace to be a career-worst. It suggests regression is coming to Flaherty's elite 12.5% fly ball rate allowed to this point.
Larnach has struck out just 5% of the time this season, and is paying off that contact with his highest career launch angle and launch angle sweet spot percentage to this point.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.