Last week, I hit one of my three MLB home run props, which kept us in the black. I also explained my bet sizing methods for these plays, especially in relation to FanDuel's Dinger Tuesday promotion. I failed to mention that you should always shop around for the best prices on individual home run bets. Last week was a prime example. I bet Corey Seager at +410 to homer on Fanatics Sportsbook. The line ended up closing at under +300.
On that note, it is worth mentioning that the best odds for all three of my home run bets this week are currently found on theScoreBet. However, the other sportsbooks are not too far behind, so you are not missing much if you do not have access to that particular sportsbook. The parlay is priced best at FanDuel Sportsbook only if you use the 50% odds boost. I have yet to see prices for BetMGM or BetRivers.
I did not go out of my way to avoid games in the Eastern half of the country. While several games have less-than-ideal hitting conditions, I have identified several spots that I believe can produce home runs. Here are three of my favorite home run bets for Tuesday, April 7th.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of theScore Bet)
Ben Rice (+450)
When Ben Rice hits the ball, he hits it hard. Rice is currently second in all of baseball in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He also ranks seventh in barrel rate per batted ball event.
Rice is a prolific home run hitter at Yankee Stadium, especially when facing a right-handed pitcher. Since the beginning of last season, Rice has 13 homers in just 189 at-bats in this split. All of these traits and trends should serve Rice well on Tuesday against Aaron Civale and the Athletics.
Since the beginning of the 2024 season, Civale has been among the most fly-ball-happy starting pitchers in all of baseball. Nearly 80% of Civale's offerings against left-handed batters are variations of the fastball.
While Rice has struggled against splitters, he has an expected batting average of over .300 and an expected slugging rate over .640 against all four-seamers, sinkers and cutters since the beginning of last season.
Rice homered in his only plate appearance against Civale last season. If he controls the count and avoids chasing the splitter, he should have the edge in this matchup. Look for him to go deep on Tuesday despite the cold weather in the Bronx.
Christian Walker (+400)
Entering Monday's action, Christian Walker is tied for third in the Majors in barrel rate per plate appearance. He is also tied for third in hard-hit batted balls thus far. Walker has also enjoyed great success against Rockies starter Kyle Freeland. In 47 career plate appearances versus Freeland, Walker has more extra-base hits (six) than strikeouts (four).
Freeland has allowed a home run every 23.5 plate appearances to righties and every 41.2 to lefties since the start of 2023. With Houston expected to start eight right-handed hitters, Freeland could struggle on Tuesday. Several Astros hitters are on the table if you have a strong lean. But I am going with Walker as my preferred home run hitter in this game.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (+400)
Ronald Acuna Jr. has yet to hit a home run in 2026, but that could change on Tuesday. Angel Stadium’s home run factor for right-handed hitters at night is 128, among the league’s highest.
Acuna's main issue this season has been failing to pull the ball. His pull rate sits at just 23%, well below his career average of 38%. However, I do not expect that trend to continue against Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi.
Like Kyle Freeland, Kikuchi gives up home runs at significantly different rates based on the hitter’s handedness. From 2022 through 2025, Kikuchi allowed a home run every 38.8 plate appearances to left-handed hitters, but every 24.9 plate appearances to right-handed hitters.
Kikuchi sports a four-seam fastball with average velocity, but its results - measured by statistics like opponents’ batting average and slugging rate - are below average. Kikuchi has tried to incorporate a cutter this year to improve his results against righties.
However, I expect Acuna to find his groove and continue his success against Kikuchi. Acuna has homered once in six plate appearances against the veteran left-hander.
