It has admittedly been a rough stretch when it comes to MLB home run props. But the grind never stops, and the process remains the same.
Today's bets feature players who are all among the league leaders in longballs. Let's hope they continue their hot-hitting ways and get us to the pay window. Here are my three favorite home run bets for Tuesday's MLB slate.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
James Wood (+300 at theScore Bet)
James Wood leads the Majors in barrel per batted ball event rate and barrel per plate appearance rate. The latter is particularly significant because Wood walks at a very high rate. His leading the league in barrel per plate appearance really says something about the type of hitter he is and the type of season he is having at the plate. Wood is especially locked in of late.
Wood has 15 hits in his last 10 games. That includes two doubles and four home runs. He also has eight walks in that stretch, so he is continuing to be selective. Given his current form, he should get some pitches to hit against Kansas City starter Michael Wacha on Tuesday.
Wacha's walk rate is below average at 7.6%, and he has issued two or fewer walks in seven of his last eight starts. If Wood gets opportunities, past performance suggests he will capitalize on them.
Wacha mainly throws a four-seam fastball and change-up to lefties, mixing in cutters and curveballs. Wood has nine homers and a 22.9% barrel rate in 120 at-bats against these pitches from righties.
While Wacha does not give up a ton of home runs, his fly-ball rates are significantly higher both on the road and versus left-handed hitters. These factors figure to enhance Wood's already positive matchup and momentum heading into this game. With this in mind, I am betting the Washington slugger to knock one out of the park on Tuesday.
Matt Olson (+378 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Transitioning to my next pick, I am betting on Matt Olson to go deep on Tuesday against Adrian Houser and the San Francisco Giants. There is a lot to like about this matchup, including the price.
Houser has struggled against lefties, allowing a .604 slugging rate and eight home runs in 37 innings overall, including five on the road in 23 innings this season.
Matt Olson is having another outstanding year for Atlanta. He enters Tuesday's game with 20 home runs, which is tied for fourth in the Majors.
Typically, players with consistent power numbers like Olson are listed at lower odds to hit a home run (see James Wood). That's why seeing Olson available at +378 stands out. It is a higher-than-expected return given his proven home run ability. I would bet this down to about +330.
Olson is in excellent form. In eight June games against right-handed starters, he has 10 hits, including four home runs. Olson has recorded at least one hard-hit ball in every game for over a month and profiles well against Houser's pitch repertoire.
Houser uses a sinker, change-up, four-seam fastball and curveball against lefties. Olson has eight home runs in 120 plate appearances facing those pitches from righties this year.
Considering all these factors, this is a high-quality matchup for Olson, and I expect him to take advantage.
Yordan Alvarez (+425 at theScore Bet)
I usually base my home run picks on an abundance of analytic metrics, but my final home run bet for Dinger Tuesday takes a slightly different approach. I can't let Yordan Alvarez sit at +425 to go deep. The worst price I've seen is +390 at Caesars Sportsbook, and I'd still play it there. This may not be his most favorable matchup, but it's also not the least favorable.
Framber Valdez is a good pitcher. Key word: Good. He is not great by any means, or at least he hasn't been to this point in the season. Valdez has a 4.40 ERA this year. His expected ERA is 4.63, and his xFIP is 4.43. Among 69 qualified pitchers, Valdez ranks 37th in home run rate per nine innings. This is not a matchup to shy away from.
We already know what Alvarez can do regardless of who is on the mound. Since the beginning of the 2024 season, Alvarez is hitting .349 with 20 home runs in 298 at-bats against left-handed pitchers. He is hitting .372 with a .615 slugging rate in that stretch at home versus lefties.
Valdez has had a lower walk rate against left-handed hitters than righties in each season since 2024. If he comes after his former teammate, I believe Alvarez will get the best of it.
