Logan Gilbert gets one of the best matchups a pitcher can ask for against the Orioles tonight. However, below, I'll explain why I'm fading him in this contest. I also explain why I think oddsmakers are undervaluing Adrian Houser and why there's no reason to fade Pete Crow-Armstrong. Here are the best MLB player props for Tuesday, June 16th.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-103)
Logan Gilbert has 82 strikeouts in 79.2 innings, but he hasn't performed great of late. He has six or fewer strikeouts in four of his last five starts, including last Tuesday against the same Orioles he will face tonight. In that contest, he struck out five batters in six innings, a bit of a shocking stat line considering the Orioles have the third-most strikeouts in the league.
While Gilbert has struck out at least seven batters in five games this season, three of those performances came in his first five starts of the season. While Gilbert is averaging more than one strikeout per inning, he's only struck out more than one batter per inning in three of his last nine starts.
Considering Gilbert has only pitched seven innings in a game once this season, that's not a good sign for his over.
Adrian Houser Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-105)
The Braves are one of the least strikeout-prone teams in baseball, but I'm going to take a chance on Adrian Houser against them tonight. Setting this total at 3.5 feels like an overreaction to how good the Braves have been and disregards the recent numbers Houser has put up.
Houser has struck out at least four batters in four consecutive starts. In his most recent appearance, he struck out six batters in just 4.1 innings. In his start before that one, he struck out five Brewers in 4.1 innings. The Brewers currently have one more strikeout than the Braves this season.
It's true that Houser only has 46 strikeouts in 65 innings, but he's struck out 30 batters in his last seven starts, compared to just 16 in his first six.
Houser hasn't struck out a lot of Braves, managing just 14 in 89 at-bats. But those strikeouts have been evenly dispersed, as he has rung up nine different batters. That bodes well for Houser tonight, as he continues his decent June with at least four strikeouts.
Pete Crow-Armstrong 2+ Hits (+165)
Pete Crow-Armstrong is hitting nearly .400 this month after a 4-for-4 game last night. He now has multiple hits in three consecutive games and four of his last five. This month, Crow-Armstrong has hit safely in 12 of his 13 games, recording multiple hits seven times.
I expect Crow-Armstrong to keep up his hot hitting, as he faces Ryan Feltner, a pitcher he singled against just last week. Crow-Armstrong batted five times in that game started by Feltner, recording two hits, including a double.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.