I've got a two-pack of MLB picks for Tuesday's full slate of action, both of which are eerily similar. For starters, it's the exact same play in each game at the exact same number and nearly the exact same price.
The two bets feature three teams from the American League East and both “Sox” teams. And, I'm taking advantage of some weakened offenses with four of the more dominant starting pitchers in the American League.
The number that I have of each of these games is way more important than the price, and I would grab these as soon as possible before they move.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of Bet365)
Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees
Gerrit Cole is set to make his fifth start of the season for the Yankees after missing the entirety of last season and the first few months of this season. He's seemingly picked up right where he left off, rocking a 2.45 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP with an 89th percentile xERA and 83rd percentile xBA, which suggests he's pretty much been as solid as his numbers indicate.
Cole’s chase rate ranks in the top third of all pitchers, his walk rate is in the top quartile and he boasts an 84th percentile barrel rate coupled with a 91st percentile hard-hit rate.
Cole will take on a White Sox lineup that is certainly much improved over previous iterations, but their overall ceiling is nerfed without Munetaka Murakami. I like Cole to keep the train rolling with another really solid start.
The White Sox counter with Davis Martin, who should absolutely be on your radar if he isn't already. Martin's numbers are nearly a carbon copy of Cole's, as he holds just a slightly higher ERA (2.45) and WHIP (1.10).
All of his pitch types grade out incredibly well, with an 82nd percentile fastball run value, an 86th percentile breaking ball run value and a 98th percentile offspeed run value, which adds up to a 97th percentile overall pitching run value.
Martin ranks among the top third of pitchers in terms of whiff rate, strikeout rate and barrel rate, and ranks above the 87th percentile in both chase rate and walk rate.
Martin will also be up against a nerfed Yankees lineup that is currently without Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham, Giancarlo Stanton and Austin Wells. If you're going to draw a matchup against the Yankees, this is about your best possible scenario.
While the Yankees’ season-long bullpen numbers indicate a really strong group, evident by a 3.38 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, the number of games they have blown or put in jeopardy doesn't exactly align with those numbers. The White Sox’s bullpen has been even more unreliable, sitting just outside of the bottom 10 with a cumulative ERA of 4.23.
I'd like to keep both bullpens out of this game and narrow the focus to these two dominant righties against two offenses that are currently lacking major power sources. Getting the four here is critical, and I much prefer it to a plus-money 3.5 number.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 4.0 Runs (-110)
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
Red Sox second-year southpaw Payton Tolle is becoming one of my favorite young starting pitchers, especially after his performance last week, which helped me cash a full game under against division rival Tampa Bay in a game that he really dominated aside from a three-run fourth inning.
Tolle's offspeed pitching run value ranks just outside of the top quartile of all pitchers with a fastball run value in the 84th percentile, which is good for an overall pitching run value in the 79th percentile. His xERA of 2.50 is among the best in the game at 2.50, and suggests that he has actually outperformed his already impressive ERA of 2.70.
Tolle's swing-and-miss stuff grades out well, with an above-average whiff rate, a 70th percentile strikeout rate and an 89th percentile chase rate. Most importantly, though, he's been a savant at generating soft contact, ranking just shy of the 80th percentile in terms of average exit velocity with an 82nd percentile barrel rate and an 84th percentile hard-hit rate.
Tolle faces another divisional foe this week - a Blue Jays team whose offense has fallen off a cliff since the version that took them to the World Series last year, ranking 20th or worse in on-base percentage (OBP), slugging rate, home runs and OPS.
The Blue Jays are going with Dylan Cease, the second odds-on favorite for the American League Cy Young Award behind Cam Schlittler.
Cease remains one of the best swing-and-miss pitchers in the game, ranking at the very top of the league with a 98th percentile whiff rate and 99th percentile strikeout rate. That is all thanks in large part to his breaking ball, which has a run value in the 96th percentile.
Cease’s 84th percentile xERA of 2.96 nearly mirrors his actual ERA of 2.91, and his 84th percentile xBA of 0.206 indicates that he's been just as good as his numbers suggest. He does a nice job avoiding hard contact himself, with a 76th percentile barrel rate, an 86th percentile average exit velocity and a groundball rate that has him among the top third of all pitchers.
The Red Sox are one of the worst offenses in baseball, ranking 24th in terms of slugging rate, OBP and OPS, with the league's second-fewest home runs.
Once again, I'd rather take the under on the first five innings total due to the caliber of the starting pitching. Similar to the Yankees-White Sox game, the four is absolutely preferred to the 3.5 in this one.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 4.0 Runs (-120)
