There are several struggling pitchers taking the hill throughout the Major Leagues on Tuesday. I have scoured the matchups to find my three favorite MLB home run bets for this week's Dinger Tuesday plays.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(All bets one unit unless otherwise specified)
Pete Alonso (+310 at FanDuel)
My first home run bet for Tuesday's MLB slate is a bet on Pete Alonso of the Baltimore Orioles. Alonso's matchup and recent underlying numbers could offer us some value here.
Over his last 11 ball games, Alonso has registered 22 hard-hit balls in 36 batted-ball events. That rate is even higher than his season-long 55.1 percent rate, which places him in the 98th percentile among MLB hitters. He only has two home runs in those 11 games to show for it, but Alonso is seeing the ball well right now.
For the season, Alonso has favorable home run splits both at home and when facing right-handed pitchers. The Polar Bear has 11 homers in 178 plate appearances against righties in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. He has 12 home runs in his other 308 plate appearances this year. Alonso has a great opportunity to improve upon his numbers on Tuesday when Grayson Rodriguez takes the rubber for the Los Angeles Angels.
The former Oriole is not the same pitcher he was before injuries derailed him beginning in 2024. After missing all of last season, Rodriguez has made 10 starts for the Angels this year. To say he has struggled would be a massive understatement.
Rodriguez has allowed a 7.98 ERA and a 7.92 expected ERA so far this season. Among 365 pitchers who have allowed a qualifying number of balls in play, Rodriguez has the highest expected batting average against and the third-highest expected slugging percentage against. Additionally, among 335 pitchers with at least 100 batted balls against, Rodriguez has allowed the highest hard-hit rate. For good measure, Rodriguez ranks in the sixth percentile in barrel rate and fourth percentile in ground ball rate.
There should be plenty of loud contact in this game from Baltimore's bats, and I believe Pete Alonso is the best bet for a home run.
Trea Turner (+491 at DraftKings)
I would never try to talk someone out of betting on Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper to hit a home run on a given night. That is even more true when a pitcher the caliber of Zack Littell is pitching against them. However, I believe that Trea Turner offers more value when it comes to betting on one of the Phillies to go deep on Tuesday night.
While Littell is listed as Tuesday's starter for the Washington Nationals, I'll believe it when I see it. Littell has been scheduled to face the Phillies twice this season, and the Nationals went with an opener both times. That is because of the number of left-handed hitters near the top of Philadelphia's lineup. With the acquisition of Luis Arraez, I expect that to be the case again on Tuesday. I believe Carson Palmquist will start this game for Washington. Turner is 2-for-5 with a home run lifetime against Palmquist.
Even if Littell does start, it's not like that would scare me off Turner. Littell has allowed 25 long balls this season, tied for fourth-most in the Major Leagues. When pitching on the road this year, his home run-to-plate-appearance ratio is nearly identical to left-handed hitters as it is to right-handed batters.
Turner has not homered against Littell in their careers, but he is 3-for-8 with a double against him. Besides, Turner has been the Phillies' best power hitter since the All-Star Break. In fact, he's been one of the best in baseball.
Since the Midsummer Classic, Turner is tied for fourth in baseball with six home runs. Four of those homers have come in 10 home games. Overall, Turner has hit 11 of his 16 home runs this year at Citizens Bank Park.
All things considered, I think Trea Turner is the best value for a homer in this game. As always, make sure you are shopping for the best price. I got this in at +491 on DraftKings, but I have seen it as low as +340 at BetMGM. I would play this down to +400.
Shohei Ohtani (+223 at DraftKings)
My final pick for Dinger Tuesday is Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani is always a good bet, and the conditions will be favorable for him when he faces Javier Assad at Wrigley Field.
Like Alonso, Ohtani's home run totals have been suppressed of late. He only has two home runs since the All-Star Break. However, Ohtani is still hitting the ball well. He has the third-highest expected slugging percentage among all qualified hitters over the past 14 days, and the second-highest mark over the past week.
Assad has allowed a sixth-percentile barrel rate this season and pitches to contact at a very high level. 162 pitchers have thrown at least 60 innings this season. Assad's 23.4 strikeout-plus-walk rate is the 13th lowest. He has also had major problems keeping the ball in the yard against left-handed hitters this year. Lefties have taken Assad deep nine times already in just 34.1 innings pitched.
Ohtani can obviously hit the ball out anywhere. But it is worth noting that the weather conditions in Chicago on Tuesday, while not overly extreme, will be favorable. Temperatures will be in the 70s with the wind blowing towards left-center field. I expect Ohtani to take advantage of both the matchup with Assad and the ballpark and hit at least one home run.
