Tonight’s MLB slate features only eight games. And the MLB Trade Deadline is set for 6:00 p.m. ET. There could be some big moves ahead. Keep that in mind before making any MLB bets today. I’ve added a couple of MLB home run props for tonight’s action that you can follow below.
Find the best price on every home run prop >>
Monday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
CJ Abrams (+310)
Last week, we hit on a CJ Abrams homer. Let’s try again tonight.
The left-handed slugger has hit a .456 ISO and a wOBA of .526 against his last 69 righties. He’s also minimized strikes to below 16% and has hit 41.7% of fly balls against righties during this stretch.
Tonight, Abrams will tee off against Aaron Nola of the Phillies, who has struggled against lefties. Nola has allowed a .260 ISO and a wOBA of .369 to his last 86 lefties. Those lefties have hit 55% of hard contact and nearly 32% of fly balls. Nola has only struck out 20.9% of lefties over the last 30 days and has given up an 11.7% barrel rate to lefties.
Let’s ride with Abrams at +310.
George Springer (+440)
George Springer is heating up against righties. Springer is a right-handed batter who has a .333 ISO and a wOBA of .418 against his last 54 righties. He’s kept strikeouts down and has also hit 31.7% of fly balls with a team-best 12.2% barrel rate against righties over the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, Springer is set to face Christian Javier of the Astros, who has allowed a .217 ISO and a .316 wOBA against his last 28 righties. Those righties have added an 18.2% barrel rate and have hit 72.7% of hard contact with 54.5% of fly balls.
This is a good spot for Springer, who is currently hitting in the clean-up spot for the Blue Jays.
Jake McCarthy (+870)
Here is a fun longshot.
Jake McCarthy already hit a homer last week. Yet, he’s +870 to hit another one tonight. The lefty has actually performed well against other lefties recently, with a .242 ISO and a wOBA of .371 against his last 39 lefties.
McCarthy is taking on Ian Seymour of the Rays, who has allowed a .375 ISO and a wOBA of .505 to his last 28 lefties as a left-handed pitcher. I rarely go after lefty-on-lefty matchups, but this one looks great on paper.
Seymour has allowed a 22.2% barrel rate to lefties and has given up over 33% of fly balls. McCarthy could take advantage at the top of the lineup.
