Playoff baseball is upon us. Tuesday marks the beginning of the Wild Card Round, with four games on tap. Picking MLB home props in the postseason can be tricky.
Only two of Tuesday's eight opening pitchers allowed more than a home run per nine innings this season. Also, several teams are using openers rather than traditional starters. That makes it tougher to project how many hitters each pitcher will face throughout the game.
That said, I have found a few players I am looking to go deep on Tuesday. Here are some of my favorite home run picks for Tuesday, September 29th.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of BetRivers)
Jeremy Pena (+500)
Say what you will about an 81-81 Houston Astros team hosting a playoff series. But their offense enters the postseason red-hot. One player who has helped lead the charge is shortstop Jeremy Pena. He is my first pick to hit a home run on Tuesday.
Pena is in excellent form. He has 18 hits, including five home runs in his last 12 games. His recent power surge may not be entirely out of the norm given this season's results. Pena tied a career-high with 22 homers despite playing in a career-low 112 games.
The Chicago White Sox are starting Game 1 with opener Hagen Smith. To be honest, betting on anyone to hit a home run off Smith is a tough sell. Smith has allowed just one home run in 28 innings this season. But Smith will likely face Pena only once in what will be a bullpen game for the White Sox.
With Houston's lineup featuring a slew of right-handed hitters, I expect Chicago to start with Erick Fedde out of the bullpen. Pena has gotten the best of Fedde in their head-to-head matchups - 3-for-4 with two home runs and a double.
Fedde and the rest of Chicago's pitching staff will want to be careful with MVP frontrunner Yordan Alvarez looming behind Pena. That means Pena should get plenty of good pitches to hit in this game. I think the shortstop has a great chance to make the White Sox pay for that strategy.
Alex Bregman (+750)
Alex Bregman has had an interesting week. He took a foul ball to the cheek while on-deck and suffered multiple fractures. Bregman avoided surgery and placement on the injured list (IL). He returned to the lineup Friday and went 4-for-4 with two home runs and a double in the regular-season finale on Sunday. Bregman could continue that momentum against a pitcher he has absolutely owned in his career.
Bregman is 7-for-8 lifetime against San Diego Padres starter Michael King. To be fair, King has yet to allow Bregman to hit a home run. But it is safe to say that the Cubs third baseman is locked in against the right-hander. Bregman has done damage versus righties this season. His 21 home runs against right-handers trail only presumptive National League MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong among Cubs hitters.
Most of Bregman's power numbers versus right-handed pitchers have improved away from Wrigley Field. Bregman has 14 home runs on the road against right-handed pitchers in just 268 total plate appearances. Given those numbers and his success against King, I think we are getting a major bargain at +750 for a Bregman home run.
BetMGM has this prop priced at +450, while theScore Bet has it at +500. Those odds are a tad too low for me, but I would be comfortable playing this at anything over +600.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+430)
If you have been following my home run bets every Tuesday, you will know I have cashed multiple tickets on Fernando Tatis Jr. in recent weeks. I intend to do the same today.
After an abysmal start to the season from a home run perspective, Tatis has completely turned it around. Tatis has hit 20 homers in just 64 games since the All-Star break and has been much more dangerous against left-handed pitching during that stretch. He has seven home runs in just 83 plate appearances versus lefties since the Midsummer Classic. I expect him to add to those numbers against the Chicago Cubs and starter Matthew Boyd.
You can easily point to Boyd's last start against San Diego as the catalyst for Tatis' torrid second half. Before that June 30th confrontation, Tatis had homered just three times in San Diego's first 83 games. He led off that game with a home run against Boyd and followed that up with another long ball later in the game. The rest, as they say, is history.
Boyd has allowed 15 home runs this season, 14 of them by right-handed hitters. Petco Park has a reputation as a pitcher's park, but it played positively for right-handed power this year. It had a 106 park factor for righties. That was higher than Coors Field, Yankee Stadium and Great American Ball Park, to name a few.
Tatis is built for the drama of the playoffs, and his recent play and favorable matchup both bode well. I am picking him to kick off his 2026 postseason with a home run on Tuesday.
