College Football Week 5 Picks: Best Early Bets (2026)

We’re flying through the 2026 college football season, moving into October with conference play fully underway. Week 4 provided plenty of entertainment on its loaded slate, led by Iowa taking down Michigan on a last-second touchdown.

No. 21 Florida routed No. 4 Ole Miss to improve to 4-0, Wisconsin upset No. 13 Penn State with a huge comeback in Happy Valley, and Kamario Taylor’s legend continued to grow with another comeback win to lead undefeated No. 24 Mississippi State over No. 19 Missouri. No. 20 Oregon dealt No. 12 USC its first loss of the season, while No. 1 Texas held on to a 20-17 road win against No. 14 Tennessee.

My College Football Week 4 Picks: Best Early Bets swept the board with a 3-0 result. Tennessee covered +3.5, Utah and Iowa State finished Under 49.5, and Georgia blew out Oklahoma 41-13 to cover -14.0.

Let’s ride this momentum into another week of profit. I’ve got my best early bets to place on three Week 5 matchups.

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College Football Week 5 Best Bets & Early Line Movement Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Alabama (7) vs. Mississippi State (16)

Quarterbacks Keelon Russell and Kamario Taylor will star in this massive SEC showdown in Week 5. No. 18 Mississippi State hosts No. 7 Alabama, moving from +3.0 to +6.0 home underdogs on the point spread.

The Bulldogs have rallied against South Carolina and Missouri to stay undefeated. Taylor’s Heisman Trophy odds continue to shorten, as he’s thrown for 1,192 yards, 14 touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions.

Alabama just steamrolled South Carolina 49-18. The Crimson Tide have erased a few deficits of their own against Kentucky and Florida State. It’s just their second road game in 2026, and they’ll lean on Russell, who faces a stout Bulldogs run defense but a vulnerable secondary.

The point total has crept up from 58.5 to 59.5 due to the elite quarterback talent on display in this game. Taylor playing at home gives Mississippi State an edge, along with the spread moving from +3.0 to +6.0.

Let’s grab the points and bet on Mississippi State to cover as a +6.0 point home underdog against Alabama during this 12 p.m. ET kickoff in Week 5.

Pick: Mississippi State +6.0 (-108)

Ohio State (5) vs. Iowa (14)

The Big 10 has a big head-to-head matchup on Saturday afternoon when the No. 14 Iowa Hawkeyes host No. 5 Ohio State. The Hawkeyes just knocked off Michigan on the road with a clutch last-second touchdown, as QB Hank Brown threw a beautiful pass on an out route to WR Reece Vander Zee.

Buckeyes QB Julian Sayin and WR Jeremiah Smith just put on a clinic against Illinois in Week 4. Smith has built his own Heisman Trophy bid, torching the Fighting Illini with a ridiculous 12-217-4 outing.

Now, Ohio State heads into Iowa City to take on Iowa’s top-ranked scoring defense. The Hawkeyes have only allowed 8.0 points per game, while entering this game with a +4.0 turnover margin thanks to a miscue-free offense.

The lines have moved from Iowa +14.0 to +13.5. The point total has shifted from 44.5 to 45.5.

Iowa has yet to surrender a rushing touchdown this season. They gave up nearly 300 passing yards to Michigan but held tight in the red zone.

Oddsmakers are giving Iowa too many points with the nation’s best scoring defense at home. Let’s side with the Hawkeyes and grab Iowa +13.5 at -108 odds.

Pick: Iowa +13.5 (-108)

Kentucky (24) vs. South Carolina

Kentucky has been one of the biggest surprises in 2026. The Wildcats challenged Alabama for 2 quarters, then went into College Station to rout Texas A&M in Week 3.

Now, Kentucky is ranked and heading back on the road to face an underwhelming South Carolina roster. The Gamecocks blew a 16-0 lead to Mississippi State, then got blown out 49-18 on the road against Alabama.

QB LaNorris Sellers continues to be turnover-prone and one-dimensional, throwing 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in his last 3 starts for South Carolina. Sellers’ biggest asset, his legs, will be tested against Kentucky.

Will Stein’s Wildcats have held opponents to 3.6 YPC, while forcing 8 turnovers. They enter this contest with a +3 turnover margin, while Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks have a -4 turnover differential.

Kentucky is still a value at +3.0 against an underachieving team like South Carolina. Take the points and bet Kentucky +3.0 for my final early Week 5 best bet.

Pick: Kentucky +3.0 (-108)