The MLB Playoffs begin today, as all four Wild Card series get started. Below, I explain why Cam Schlittler should continue his domination of the Red Sox. Then, I highlight why Jesus Luzardo shouldn't be trusted despite how well he pitched against the Braves earlier this month. And finally, I detail why Manny Machado is in for a huge game in a very favorable matchup.
Here are the best MLB player prop bets for September 29.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cam Schlittler Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+121)
Schlittler finished the regular season with 239 strikeouts, tied for the third-most in the league. He faced the Red Sox four times, striking out at least five batters in each of those starts.
Schlittler really hit his stride against the Red Sox late in the season. In his last start against them, he pitched 5.2 innings and struck out eight batters. In the start before that one, he struck out nine batters in just 5.0 innings. In his career, he's struck out 25 Red Sox in 78 at-bats.
The Red Sox were actually one of the better teams at avoiding strikeouts this season, finishing with the 12th-fewest in the league. However, the Red Sox also struggled to score runs, finishing with the 23rd-most this season. Schlittler didn't allow more than a single earned run in any of his starts against Boston, and I don't expect him to get chased early tonight either.
Jesus Luzardo Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+105)
On Sept. 7, Luzardo pitched a complete-game shutout against the Braves. He struck out 12 batters in that appearance. However, he went onto the Injured List after that, and in his most recent appearance, he pitched just 1.0 inning, striking out zero batters.
While it's tempting to look at what Luzardo did against the Braves earlier this month and blindly take the Over for this low total, Phillies' manager Don Mattingly has confirmed that Luzardo will just be opening this game. That means that we shouldn't expect to see him for more than an inning or two.
When Luzardo pitched against the Braves earlier this month, he had just one strikeout in the first inning, so if he only pitches one inning, then there's little doubt he's hitting this Under. But even through two innings, he had just three strikeouts, and after three innings, he had just four. This is a pitcher averaging 1.2 strikeouts per inning this season, but until I know he's at 100 percent, I can't trust him. And with the price for the Under so good, I'll take a chance here.
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases (+142)
Machado has had Matthew Boyd's number throughout his career. He's 9-for-20 with five extra-base hits and a slash line of .450/.455/.800. Now, he enters this excellent matchup with three hits in his last seven at-bats, including a home run on Saturday.
Boyd had two solid starts to end the season, but his ERA went from 3.41 on July 29 to 4.16 on Sept. 13, as he allowed at least three earned runs in six og his eight starts during that span.
Boyd hasn't allowed a home run since August, but the last time these two faced each other, Machado hit a homer off Boyd. Though Machado recorded just four multi-hit games in September, his ability to get this with one swing makes this too good of a price to pass up.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.