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MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Wednesday (7/1)

MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Wednesday (7/1)

The calendar may have turned to July, but my MLB home run props take a long look at some sluggers who tore the cover off the ball in June.

Today’s best home run props feature one of the National League’s hottest sluggers, who is playing in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league, Coors Field. I also have two other plays on last week’s American League Player of the Week and a visiting Mets slugger looking to spoil Canada Day in Toronto.

Here are my top MLB home run props for Wednesday’s loaded 14-game slate.

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      MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

      Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props

      (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

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      Mark Vientos (+620)

        Mark Vientos has homered at least once in each of the last four series that have gone three or more games. He would be thrilled to be matched up with a Blue Jays southpaw in this bullpen game, as his slugging rate and OPS are 221 and 320 points better, respectively, against left-handed pitchers than righties.

        Vientos has hit seven of his 10 home runs on the road this season, making this a great value play.


        Junior Caminero (+220)

          Junior Caminero took home American League Player of the Week honors after batting .423 with four doubles, seven home runs and 15 RBI in seven games. He also turned in the eighth three-homer game in franchise history.

          Caminero is amid a five-game home run streak. He is 3-for-6 with two home runs against Seth Lugo, and the righty is showing decline with the worst WHIP of his 11-year career.

          Lugo's 32% fly-ball rate is on pace to smash his previous career high of 28.6% (set in 2019). Allowing balls in the air against Caminero is dangerous given that his 26.8% HR/FB rate is the sixth-highest among qualified hitters.


          Hunter Goodman (+283)

          Hunter Goodman hit 26 homers before July, the most in Rockies franchise history. He also became the first National League catcher since Johnny Bench in 1970 to hit 25+ homers in a team's first 83 games. 

          Goodman ranks 10th in slugging rate since 2025 (minimum 600 plate appearances). His .954 slugging rate to the pull/straightaway sides entering the week was the third-highest (minimum 75 plate appearances). He also had an MLB-high 12 home runs this season and 25 since the start of 2025 off breaking pitches.

          Goodman and Shohei Ohtani are the only two players with a .500+ slugging rate on all three pitch types (fastball, breaking, offspeed) since the start of 2025 (minimum 250 plate appearances vs. fastballs, 150 plate appearances vs. breaking pitches, 50 plate appearances vs. offspeed pitches).


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          Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.