With next week being the last full week of the Major League Baseball season, we’re reaching the point where players are zoning in on certain milestones with their MLB home run props. One of my home run picks today, focuses on a player who can set a new single-season high with a long ball today.
Here are my top MLB home run props for Wednesday’s slate.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Ozzie Albies (+660)
Cubs southpaw Shota Imanaga has allowed three home runs in 63 combined at-bats to current Braves hitters. Ozzie Albies is responsible for two of those, as the switch-hitting second baseman has logged a 1.333 OPS and .917 slugging percentage in their head-to-head matchups.
Albies has hit eight of his 22 home runs against left-handed pitchers (in 120 fewer at-bats). He entered yesterday slugging 69 points better in that split than against righties.
Albies had hit just one home run since August 11 prior to yesterday’s 396-foot blast, but this is a great matchup for him to get some momentum going in the power department before the postseason.
Cole Carrigg (+578)
Like most pitchers, Robbie Ray has struggled at Coors Field in his career, pitching to a 5.04 ERA and 1.780 WHIP. He has limited the damage with just three home runs allowed in 60.1 innings in the altitude, but that might not be sustainable in this start thanks to his 17th percentile ground ball rate.
Cole Carrigg has the shortest home run odds of any Rockies slugger, but is still a great value play to go deep in this matchup of NL West squads.
Zach Neto (+449)
Zach Neto has already logged his third straight 20/20 season, and his 26 home runs have him one shy of setting a new single-season high. He has just two hits in 10 at-bats against George Kirby, but both have gone for extra bases (one home run).
Kirby’s numbers have gotten worse as the season has progressed, and he’s on pace for his third consecutive month of a 4.96 ERA or worse. He has allowed four home runs in his last three starts, and ranks in the bottom third of all pitchers in hard-hit rate.
Kirby has allowed a .420 slugging percentage or worse on all but one of his primary pitches. That includes a whopping .623 rate on his knuckle curve, which he throws more than 10% of the time.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.